A PREVIEW OF THE EARNINGS PREVIEW

Here is where we stand on the upcoming earnings season for the big cap US listed operators.  MPEL looks like the standout.

 

 

With two months of detailed Macau data in hand, we feel pretty good about our Macau projections.  Las Vegas, as always, is a wild card but aside from MGM, who really cares?  Singapore is also more difficult to predict but we are fairly certain MBS will lose some share when the numbers are tallied.  We’re still trying to understand the seasonality but it appears that Genting’s leisure exposure should boost its Q4 share vs MBS.

 

As can be seen in the following table, we are significantly above the Street for MPEL’s EBITDA, and it’s not just hold driven.  Hold is trending a little above normal but below last year and below Q3.  We think the biggest delta versus consensus is in the Mass segment where MPEL gained significant MoM and YoY share thus far in Q4.  MPEL’s Mass margins remain below the US based operators due to player rebates in its significant premium Mass business.  However, a mix shift towards Mass still benefits the company’s overall margin.  Remember that MPEL’s exposure to the high-end premium Mass allowed it to emerge unscathed from the opening of Galaxy Macau and will certainly help when Sands Cotai Central – another mid-level Mass property – opens next year.

 

On the downside, our Q4 EBITDA estimate for WYNN is 6% below consensus, concentrated in Macau.  Wynn Macau continues to lose share and growth has been a little disappointing.  We are fairly in-line with the Street on LVS, although higher on Macau EBITDA due to junket-related share gains and a little below in Singapore due primarily to seasonality.  MGM looks like a beat at this stage of the quarter.

 

A PREVIEW OF THE EARNINGS PREVIEW - 3



Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more

A 'Toxic Cocktail' Brewing for A Best Idea Short

The first quarter earnings pre-announcement today is not the end of the story for Mednax (MD). Rising labor costs and slowing volume is a toxic cocktail...

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy? Here's What You Need to Know

If you're heavily-invested in Energy stocks it's been a heck of a year. Energy is the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 year-to-date and value investors are now hunting for bargains in the oil patch. Before you buy, here's what you need to know.

read more

McCullough: ‘My 1-Minute Summary of My Institutional Meetings in NYC Yesterday’

What are even some of the smartest investors in the world missing right now?

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Political Portfolio Positioning

Leave your politics out of your portfolio.

read more

Jim Rickards Answers the Hedgeye 21

Bestselling author Jim Rickards says if he could be any animal he’d be a T-Rex. He also loves bonds and hates equities. Check out all of his answers to the Hedgeye 21.

read more