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Initial Claims

Initial jobless claims came in at 366k versus 390k consensus and 385k (revised) the week prior.

THE HBM: DNKN, GMCR, SBUX, CMG - initial claims 1215

Comments from CEO Keith McCullough

And these are the days of our Global Macro lives…

  1. CHINA – new to whoever hasn’t been paying attention; not new to you – China is crashing alongside Commodities – it’s all part of the same Global Macro trade we call the Correlation Crash. Shanghai Comp down another -2.1% last night (6 straight days) to -22.4% YTD. Getting interesting on the long side as we Deflate the Inflation. Have not pulled the trigger yet.
  2. RUSSIA – this story of risk is what Asia’s slowdown was 6-8 weeks ago – not a focus of the financial media, but it will be as the Russian stock market continues to crash (leads European decliners again this morning, down -1.2% and down -36.3% from its Bernanke PetroDollar peak of Qe2 hopes (Q211). Putin not happy.
  3. GOLD – get the USD right, you’ll get plenty of other things right; with the USD/Gold inverse correlation (on our immediate-term TRADE duration) going bezerk yesterday (went to -0.93%), I bought it – long-term TAIL support for Gold = $1568/oz. I’ll keep this on a tight leash w/ immediate-term TRADE resistance = $1624.

Global Growth continues to slow and King Dollar reigns. Keep moving out there.



THE HBM: DNKN, GMCR, SBUX, CMG - subsector fbr



DNKN: Dunkin’ Brands CEO Nigel Travis did the media circuit this morning, speaking on CNBC and Bloomberg.  Neither interview we watched gave us any reason to doubt our short thesis; the all-important backlog for new unit openings still remains one of life’s mysteries.

GMCR: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters’ stock has been trading horribly.  Keybanc has refuted Stifel’s Keurig machine shipment data, saying that the numbers are not comparable month-to-month because of changes to the shipping papers.  Stifel has issued a mea culpa.

GMCR: Janney has also defended the stock, saying that Green Mountain asked data service to stop disclosing customer data in October, which caused the shipments to be undercounted.  Janney’s price target is $125.  The stock is trading up +2.7% premarket. 

SBUX: Starbucks has added Clara Shih to the Board of Directors.  Shih is a 29 year old social media entrepreneur that will bring expertise in that field to the Starbucks boardroom.

CMG: Chipotle Mexican Grill CEO Steve Ells called for an end to the overuse of antibiotics in American meats in a Congressional briefing on Capitol Hill yesterday.

THE HBM: DNKN, GMCR, SBUX, CMG - stocks 1215

Howard Penney

Managing Director

Rory Green