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THE HBM: GMCR, DNKN, EAT

THE HEDGEYE BREAKFAST MONITOR

 

MACRO NOTES

 

Comments from CEO Keith McCullough

 

Sold SPY yesterday at 1249 resistance and got hedged, fast. That’s the only way to play the game that’s in front of you right now.

  1. CHINA – apparently not getting the Santa Claus rally memo from the US centric perma bulls; Chinese stocks down for the 5th consecutive day, down another -0.89% to fresh 3yr lows, and back in crash mode (down -20.7% YTD) as China’s Money Supply (M2) gets reported at the lowest level since May of 2001! (12.7%)
  2. KING DOLLAR – remains our Hedgeye Macro Theme #1 for Q411 and I’m sticking to it. Get the EUR/USD right and you’ll get most other things that are extremely correlated right. All of Asia and Latin America in rate cutting mode; Europeans getting bazooka’d.
  3. CORRELATION CRASH – remains my Hedgeye Macro Theme #2 for Q411 as it’s born out of Theme #1. Gold is doing what it did when my correlation risk model blew out in Q4 of 2008. This morning’s immediate-term TRADE correlation (inverse) b/t USD and Gold = -0.84% and commodities like Corn are looking like the Euro.

 

Keep moving out there. Risk is.

 

KM

 

 

SUBSECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HBM: GMCR, DNKN, EAT - subsector fbr

 

 

QUICK SERVICE

 

GMCR: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters is seeing a deceleration in shipments of Keurig brewers, according to Stifel Nicolaus.

 

GMCR: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters was cut to Neutral versus Buy at Dougherty.

 

GMCR: Janney analyst Mitch Penheiro was quoted by Bloomberg as saying that the drop in IRI K-Cup share for GMCR is “irrelevant” because the company has 100% market share of the K-Cup category.  The market clearly does not think that the IRI data was irrelevant as we head into 2012, the year when the company loses its K-Cup patent.  GMCR traded down -11.6% on 1,177% volume versus the 30 day average.

 

DNKN: Dunkin’ Brands’ largest three investors have recently unloaded a total of $546.6 million in shares of the company.  TCG, Bain, and Thomas H. Lee sold $175.6 million, $191.4 million, and $179.6 million worth of shares, respectively.


 

CASUAL DINING

 

EAT: Brinker was up yesterday on accelerating volume.  Dine Equity was down on strong volume.  Of late, the divergence between the two share prices has been stark with Brinker's stock outperforming.

 

 

THE HBM: GMCR, DNKN, EAT - stocks 1214

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst

 


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – December 14, 2011

 

Sold SPY yesterday at 1249 resistance and got hedged, fast. That’s the only way to play the game that’s in front of you right now.  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 18 points or -0.96% downside to 1214 and 0.51% upside to 1232. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

KM started yesterday long SPY with a plan to sell it on a failure at 1249 (so I did).  In one of the uglier intraday reversals of the year, the SP500 ended up snapping my immediate-term TRADE line of support (1232) on the close. Now the Index (SPY) is back to bearish TAIL; bearish TRADE.  In conjunction with the SPY TRADE break of 1232, 5 of 9 sectors are bearish on my TRADE duration and 2 of them are bearish TRADE and TREND (Financials and Basic Materials which are the 2 Sectors we’ve flagged for the biggest drawdown risk to US Dollar up).  For the YTD, you can drive a truck through the Sector returns see below; but that truck rides a 4 lane highway that drives through 2 very big Macro calls in 2011 – 1H11 Growth Slowing and 2H11 King Dollar.  As the US Dollar continues to strengthen, I expect Strong Dollar = Deflate The Inflation = Strong Consumption = Long Healthcare + Consumer

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 1214

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector performance

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE:  -1377 (-490) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 926.53 (+19.12%)
  • VIX:  25.41 -1.01% YTD PERFORMANCE: +43.15%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.57 from 1.66 (-5.46%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 54.12
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.01%
  • 10-Year: 1.96 from 2.03   
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.72 from 1.79

 

GLOBAL MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:00am: MBA Mortgage Applications, week of Dec. 9
  • 8:30am: Import Price Index, M/m, Nov., est. 1.0% (prior 0.6%)
  • 8:30am: Fed’s Lockhart speaks about Atlanta
  • 10:30am: DoE inventories
  • 1:00pm: U.S. to sell $13b 30-yr bonds (reopening)
  • UK Oct ILO unemployment rate +8.3% vs consensus +8.4%, prior +8.3%
  • UK Nov claimant count (unemployment change) +3.0k vs consensus 14.9k

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Oil declined amid speculation that OPEC will set an output ceiling near current production levels
  • Groupon ratings initiated at several firms including Deutsche Bank (hold) Goldman (buy), Wells Fargo (outperform)
  • China will impose anti-dumping, anti-subsidy duties on some U.S. vehicles
  • Data on sales of previously owned homes from 2007 to Oct. 2011 will be revised lower as a result of double counting: Reuters
  • Bullish sentiment decreases to 45.3% from 47.4% in the latest US Investor's Intelligence poll; Bearish sentiment increases to 30.5% from 29.5%; Those expecting a market correction increases to 24.2% from 23.1%

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

CORRELATION CRASH – remains my Hedgeye Macro Theme #2 for Q411 as its born out of Theme #1. Gold is doing what it did when my correlation risk model blew out in Q4 of 2008. This morning’s immediate-term TRADE correlation (inverse) b/t USD and Gold = -0.84% and commodities like Corn are looking like the Euro.

  • China Easing Case Grows on ‘Grim’ Outlook, Money Supply: Economy
  • Buffett’s Surging Silo Sales Boosting Cargill Costs: Commodities
  • Corzine Knew MF Made Loan From Customer Accounts, Duffy Says
  • Crude Drops From One-Week High in New York Before OPEC Meeting
  • Cheapest Foreign Coal in Three Years Lures China: Energy Markets
  • Sino-Forest Bonds Indicate No Recovery Expected: Canada Credit
  • Gold May Rebound From 7-Week Low as Europe Concern Spurs Demand
  • Sino-Forest Woes Spur Nine Dragons to Tap Shanghai: China Credit
  • Mozambique Ports Grow With Rio Tinto Appetite for Coal: Freight
  • Risk Rising of Deeper China Slowdown, Conference Board Says
  • Humala Pleases Peru Investors With Moves to Save Mine Projects
  • Copper Slumps to Two-Week Low as Fed Refrains From New Stimulus
  • Nippon Steel Gets Clearance for Take Over of Sumitomo Metal
  • Oil Surges on Speculation of Supply Disruption in Middle East
  • Iron Ore Trading System May Stir Swap Demand, Straits Says
  • Rio Tinto Doesn’t Plan Ivanhoe Bid After Arbitration Ruling
  • Gold Extends Losses as Fed Refrains From More Stimulus Measures
  • Death of Gold Bull Market Seen by Gartman as He Sells Metal

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

CURRENCIES

 

KING DOLLAR – remains our Hedgeye Macro Theme #1 for Q411 and I’m sticking to it. Get the EUR/USD right and you’ll get most other things that are extremely correlated right. All of Asia and Latin America in rate cutting mode; Europeans getting bazooka’d.

 

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

CHINA – apparently not getting the Santa Claus rally memo from the US centric perma bulls; Chinese stocks down for the 5th consecutive day, down another -0.89% to fresh 3yr lows, and back in crash mode (down -20.7% YTD) as China’s Money Supply (M2) gets reported at the lowest level since May of 2001! (12.7%)

 

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

 

 

MIDDLE EAST (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Hakkasan to Open in Four U.S. Cities as Restaurant Goes Global
  • Assad’s Detachment From Syria Killings Reveals Life in Cocoon
  • Saudi Arabia Names New Economic Team Amid Drive for Growth
  • OPEC in Talks to Complete 30 Million-Barrel Output Agreement
  • Mozambique Ports Grow With Rio Tinto Appetite for Coal: Freight
  • Saudi’s Naimi Sees ‘Great Agreement’ on Output Within OPEC
  • Six Themes for Oil & Gas Equities in 2012: Citigroup
  • Taqa Spread Over Corporates Widens on Debt Buyback: Arab Credit
  • Kuwait’s Burgan Bank Buys Eurobank Tekfen, Haberturk Says
  • Strait of Hormuz Not Closed, Iran Foreign Ministry Says
  • Hormuz Strait Closure Not on Iran’s Agenda, Al Alam Reports
  • Iraqi Oil Pipeline Near Basra Burns After Explosions, AP Says
  • Qatargas Says Planned Maintenance at LNG Trains 5,6,7 Completed
  • Sabic Working to Turn Crude Into Petrochems Without Refinery
  • Iraq to Open First Oil Sea Terminal, Plans Bids on March 7
  • Syrian Central Bank Fixes Pound Rate Against Other Currencies
  • U.A.E. New Company Law May Struggle to Prompt IPOs Amid Drop
  • Saudi Shares Rally on Speculation Loss Overdone, Reshuffle

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

Howard Penney

Managing Director


The Secret

This note was originally published at 8am on December 09, 2011. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“The secret is to work less as individuals and more as a team. As a Coach, I play not my eleven best, but my best eleven.”

-Knute Rockne

 

Born in Voss, Norway, Knute Rockne was an American immigrant who coached college football in this country when the US Government didn’t have a perma-central plan for losers on the fields of finance to win.

 

Between 1918-1930, Rockne’s Notre Dame football teams amassed an amazing win/loss record of 105-12. He was not a qualitative analyst of the game. He was a chemist who learned how to change the game.

 

Re-think, Re-work, and Re-build – whether it was Rockne’s introduction of the forward pass, or Hedgeye’s vision of real-time risk management – this is the America that most of us love and believe in.

 

It was a great year…

 

I can say that tonight at the 4thannual Hedgeye Holiday Party. I can say that because we hired, net, more Americans than Bank of America, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley, combined. I can say that because my team did so profitably (paid up +24% year-over-year). I can say that because we are building something, as a team, that no one can centrally plan away from us.

 

The Secret to our success is very simple. Whether you like our hockey learnings in life or not, my defense partner, Daryl Jones, summarized it best at our Company Meeting this week in New Haven:  

 

“It’s the name on the front of the jersey that matters more than the name on the back.”

 

That’s what USA Olympic Hockey Coach, Herb Brooks, famously said. It’s different than what Knute Rockne or Vince Lombardi said about winning – but it’s really all the same thing. It’s The Secret of American success.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Yesterday’s intraday spanking of the S&P Futures came right on time with our catalyst – a failed European Summit. Failure, of course, being measured versus the market’s consensus expectations. With the SP500 dropping 34 handles from its Tuesday and Wednesday intraday highs, a -2.6% draw-down left a mark on Santa’s sleigh.

 

But where is old Saint Nick? We’ve done battle in the corners with any bull that wanted a piece of us in November. We’ve banged the boards for the home team on the “sell-high” side for the first 10 days of December. With the US and Global Equity markets down for both November and December, we’re calling this a win.

 

That’s just measuring success, of course, on our most immediate-term duration – at Hedgeye we call it the TRADE. And while many “long-term investors” don’t TRADE (or manage risk – same thing) like we do, we get that and also have a risk management framework that incorporates longer-term investor durations:

  1. Immediate-term TRADEs = 3 weeks or less
  2. Intermediate-term TRENDs = 3 months or more
  3. Long-term TAILs = 3 years or less 

Like Rockne’s vision of the forward pass, our vision of risk management has more to do with Embracing Uncertainty across durations than it does locking ourselves into a certainty of style. Our style isn’t to be bullish. It’s definitely not to be bearish either. It’s simply to be right – and being Duration Agnostic helps accomplish that.

 

In US Equities, across durations, what’s the score?

  1. TRADE = The SP500 is down -1% for December, 2011
  2. TREND = The SP500 is down -9.5% from its YTD high (April 2011)
  3. TAIL = The SP500 is down -21.2% (still in crash mode) from its October 2007 high

Since we’re one of the only teams that writes what we think to you in real-time that nailed both Global Growth Slowing calls of 2008 and 2011, we can celebrate our process tonight for what it’s accomplished – helping become a part of your risk management process.

 

That’s The Secret. We can collaborate and partner with our clients in a way that Marcus Goldman could. We can learn much more from your teams, collectively, than you can learn from ours – and we like that. It’s ok to learn. It’s ok to say I don’t know. It’s ok to say hey, we’re winning out there, together, and we’re proud of it.

 

I personally want to thank my teammates and all of you. As a Canadian immigrant to America, it’s both a pleasure and a privilege to wear this Made in the USA jersey every day.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold (bearish TRADE and TREND), Brent Oil (bearish TAIL and TRADE), Gemany’s DAX and the SP500 are now  $1699-1743, $107.11-110.31, 5776-5986, and 1231-1251, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

The Secret - Chart of the Day

 

The Secret - Virtual Portfolio


Early Look

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THE M3: TOUR DATA; HK-ZHUHAI-MACAU BRIDGE

The Macau Metro Monitor, December 14, 2011

 

 

TOURS AND HOTEL OCCUPANCY RATE FOR OCTOBER 2011 DSEC

Visitor arrivals in package tours soared by 60.9% YoY to 637,345 in October 2011.  Visitors from Mainland China (460,660); Taiwan (43,594); Hong Kong (31,189) and the Republic of Korea (24,166) surged by 67.7%, 97.7%, 46.5% and 104.9% respectively.

 

At the end of October 2011, number of available guest rooms of hotels and guest-houses totaled 22,330, up by 2,481 rooms (+12.5%) YoY, with that of 5-star hotels accounting for 63.7% of the total.  The average length of stay of guests increased by 0.06 night to 1.6 nights.

 

CONSTRUCTION BEGINS ON HONG KONG-ZHUHAI-MACAU BRIDGE SCMP

Construction finally began on the HK$83BN Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge on Wednesday, after a year’s delay caused by a legal challenge to its environmental assessment report.  “Although the local construction works for the bridge was delayed for a year because of a judicial review earlier, we will tighten the schedule by altering construction methods and deploying extra manpower and machines, so the bridge can open in 2016 as planned,” CEO Donald Tsang Yam-kuen said.



Correlation Crash

“There thus appears to be an inverse correlation between recovery and psychotherapy.”

-Hans Eysenck

 

With The Correlation Risk whipping around faster than a Keynesian can drum up the next big central plan, I’ve decided to source my morning quote from a psychologist. If I have to deal with managing risk today like I did yesterday, I think I might need one.

 

The late Eysenck was a “German-British psychologist … best remembered for his work on intelligence and personality… at the time of his death, Eysenck was the living psychologist most frequently cited in science journals” (Wikipedia).

 

The Big Government Intervention experiments of Japanese, American, and now European social scientists may not be cited in the scientific journals of our children as successes. I’m thinking maybe more like pre-Einstein “scientists” are remembered from Berlin.

 

After Ben Bernanke’s FOMC proclamations of faith yesterday, I was reminded of what the President of the United States should be holding him accountable to (his job):

  1. Achieve full employment
  2. Establish price stability

In the Transparency, Accountability, and Trust school of questioning perceived academic wisdoms, I give the Chairman of the Federal Reserve and the policies he has perpetuated globally to inflate very low grades.

 

Sure, somewhere in between what he thought was going to be an employment recovery and psychotherapy, I can be convinced that the man got lucky with some inverse correlations (driving commodities and stocks up with the Dollar Down). But for now, it’s the Correlation Risk (i.e. the other side of the trade), that’s ungluing just about everything that he believed would stick.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

As the SP500 bumped up against (and failed at) my immediate-term TRADE line of resistance (1249) yesterday, I sold my long position in the SPY (957AM EST, #TimeStamped).

 

While that’s a 180 versus what I was outlining yesterday, there’s also a 180 degree difference between the SP500 at 1229 and 1249. There’s an even bigger difference on a TRADE line breakdown through 1232. Risk works both ways.

 

Contextualizing why you make immediate-term TRADE decisions requires an intermediate to long-term risk management process. That’s why we call our model Duration Agnostic.

 

If you take a step back and consider our most fundamental intermediate-term TREND view in Global Macro right now, it’s a lot easier to see why we’d have a 0% asset allocation to something like Commodities.

 

Hedgeye Global Macro Themes for Q411 (introduced in mid October):

  1. King Dollar – an explicitly bullish view of the US Dollar across durations
  2. Correlation Crash – an explicitly bearish view of Global Equities, Commodities and Foreign Currencies
  3. Eurocrat Bazooka – a view that the Europeans would ultimately fail in keeping rumors in line with reality 

So far, so good.

 

Our competition (shh, even in a fair share world, it really still is a competition) has had plenty of opportunity to follow the leader on these Global Macro Themes. But, sadly, they have chosen the path most travelled by Old Wall Street sell-side firms and stayed the course with what didn’t work for them in 2008 and certainly is not working now. Same broken models.

 

Not to name names, but whether it was Goldman saying buy Commodities in October (then buy the Euro in November!), or Tom Lee at JP Morgan just saying buy buy buy, it’s all one and the same old thing. I’m not the only one who should be considering psychotherapy.

 

Back to The Correlation Risk

 

Yesterday I heard a few pundits talk about how interesting it was that the “correlations are starting to come undone.” Not sure what that means (they were saying it when US stocks were up on the day actually), but here’s the latest math:

 

Immediate-term inverse correlations between the US Dollar Index and the big Macro that matters:

  1. CRB Commodities Index = -0.87
  2. SP500 = -0.59
  3. EuroStoxx = -0.73
  4. Gold = -0.82
  5. Silver = -0.89
  6. Corn = -0.84

Now maybe if you are US stock centric and not paying attention to Global Macro Correlations other than the SP500, this data could be spun as half-true (SP500 was a -0.8). But C’mon Man – interconnectedness is what’s been driving the Alpha bus for all of 2011. Period.

 

Since we authored this very basic thought, we do agree that the best path to long-term prosperity in America is through a Strong Dollar. Correlation Risk is not perpetual. With time, Strong Dollar = Strong US Consumption. Strong Consumption (71% of US GDP) will ultimately save this country from the Keynesians themselves - like it did in 2009.

 

Unfortunately, this is not yet 2009. Bottoms are processes, not points. And this Correlation Crash still needs to run its course.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Brent Oil, German DAX, French CAC, and the SP500 are now $1, $107.12-109.56, 5, 3026-3133, and 1, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Correlation Crash - Chart of the Day

 

Correlation Crash - Virtual Portfolio


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