Eye On The Deflation Trade: Buying TIPs

11/24/08 11:59AM EST
I bought TIPs today (earning a 10.5% yield) in the 'Hedgeye Portfolio' for the very reason that everyone who has been short commodities (or not levered long them), continues to outperform. Some level of mean reversion is setting up to take hold, and catch the momentum investors who are piling onto this over sold trade off-sides.

Have commodities deflated? Well, I'll save you the debate and show you the chart below. Alongside this, the US government has opted to bring out "Heli Ben" and drop moneys from the heavens. This morning US 10 Year yields we're trading at 3.23%. They are bailing out Citigroup, again… and devaluing our American currency alongside the credibility of her banking system’s handshake.

This deflation “Trend” is setting up to turn higher for a “Trade” into the December Fed rate cut. Much like Greenspan opted to re-flate his way out of problems in 2001-2003, cutting rates to negative (on a real basis) is going to re-stoke the inflation "Trade". This is why we are short the US$ via the UUP, and long OIL.
KM
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