TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - December 8, 2011
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 38 points or -2.30% downside to 1233 and 0.71% upside to 1270.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: +172 (+155)
- VOLUME: NYSE 968.11 (+20.72%)
- VIX: 28.67 +1.92% YTD PERFORMANCE: +61.52%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.17 from 1.40 (-16.37%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 53.49
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.02%
- 10-Year: 2.02 from 2.08
- YIELD CURVE: 1.78 from 1.82
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30 a.m.: Jobless claims, est. 395k (prior 402k)
- 9:45 a.m.: Bloomberg consumer comfort, est. -49.3, (prior -50.2)
- 10:00 a.m: Wholesale inventories, est. 0.3% (prior -0.1%)
- 10:00 a.m: Freddie Mac mortgage
- 10:30 a.m: EIA Natural Gas storage
- 12:00 p.m: Flow of funds 3Q
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Fed Chairman Bernanke is rated favorably by 71% of investors, traders and analysts, according to a Bloomberg poll
- European Central Bank probably will cut its base rate 25bp to 1%
- SEC sometimes allows large investors to not play on level field – WSJ
- SEC sometimes allows large investors to not play on level field - WSJ
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Oil at $150 Becomes Biggest Options Bet on Iran: Energy Markets
- Rib-Eye Beef to Tumble as Holiday Demand Peaks: Chart of the Day
- Wheat Shredded as Near-Record Crop Boosts Reserves: Commodities
- Japan Expands Rice-Shipment Ban as Contamination Spreads
- Crude Oil Rises From One-Week Low Before European Debt Summit
- Japan Gold Export Most Since ’85 as Individuals Sell Jewelry
- Commodity Index Rebound May Be Almost Over: Technical Analysis
- Gold May Decline as European Leaders Meet, ETP Holdings Drop
- Petrobras’s Oil Seen Abundant With Gigantic Helicopters: Freight
- Sino-Forest May Go Private as Martin Seeks Way Out of ‘Morass’
- ABN Amro May Expand Commodity Loans Where BNP Sees 30% Drop
- Policy Shift Shows China Favors Unbalanced Recovery to Slump
- Barclays See Australian ‘Champions’ Restoring Deal Balance
- China’s Pork Prices May Have Reached Bottom, New Hope Group Says
- Stocks Rise Amid Optimism Over Europe Summit; Treasuries Advance
- Vale Negotiating Price Reductions in Iron-Ore Contracts
- Shanghai to Add Dry-Bulk, Tanker Indexes in Baltic Challenge
- Wheat Drops as U.S. May Increase Estimate for Global Stockpiles
- World Food Prices Fall a Fifth Month, May Be ‘Bottoming Out’
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Oil at $150 Becomes Biggest Options Bet on Iran: Energy Markets
- Dana Gas Drops to Two-Year Low on Debt Concern: Islamic Finance
- Egypt’s ‘Orderly’ FX Market Is Hostage to IMF, Aid: Arab Credit
- Dubai Denies Report on Restructuring State Company Debt
- MIDEAST DAYBOOK: Dubai Debt; Emirates NBD Pulls Sukuk; Agility
- Abu Dhabi Commercial Files Prospectus for $7.5 Billion Bond Plan
- Emirates NBD May Need $2.2 Billion Provisions, Goldman Says
- Saudi Arabia Is in No Rush to Get New OPEC Quota, Naimi Says
- Bahrain Says Device Found After Flight From U.K. Via Dubai
- ADIA Names Benjamin Weston as Head of Alternative Investments
- Gulf International Bank Prices $300 Million Islamic Bond
- Eni Unconcerned About Possible Iran Sanctions, Scaroni Says
- Eni Can Meet Refinery Needs Without Iran Oil in Case of Ban
- Dubai Shares Retreat Ahead of Europe Meet; Dubai Financial Drops
- Eni Pumping 200,000 Barrels a Day Oil in Libya, CEO Scaroni Says
- Agility Unit Sues U.S. to Lift Freeze on Military Contracts
The Hedgeye Macro Team
Howard Penney
Managing Director
