A modest gain in Strip revenues expected despite tough slot and table hold comparisons.
Based on the latest airport/taxi data and assuming normal slot and table hold percentages, our predictive model estimates Strip revenues grew 1-3% in October. McCarran Airport October passenger traffic rose 4.5% YoY, while Nevada October taxi trips increased 8.2% YoY.
Volume growth was likely better than our revenue projection due to tough hold comparisons. We project total gaming volume ex Baccarat in October grew 7% YoY. As we mentioned in, “YOU TALKIN’ TO ME” (11/22/11), total gaming volume ex Baccarat has a statistically significant relationship with taxi trips. October table win growth, however, would only be in the low digits because of a difficult hold comparison last October.
Going forward, November faces a difficult slot comp since hold was abnormally high last year. The table business is up against low volumes last year but with normal hold.