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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - December 1, 2011

There is plenty relevant MACRO data today: – UK PMI hits 47.6 (lowest since 09), South Korean inflation rises sequentially to +4.2% November vs +3.6% October, Brazil cuts rates for the 3rdtime in a row, etc…  Bottom line is that all of this remains much more a policy to inflate than it does equate to bare knuckled economic growth – there’s a difference – inflation slows consumption growth at $110/barrel.  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 45 points or -3.53% downside to 1203 and 0.08% upside to 1248. 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 121

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE:  2306 (2416) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1667.75 (+81.53%)
  • VIX:  27.80 -9.27% YTD PERFORMANCE: +56.62%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.33 from 2.07 (+12.78%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 52.89
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.01%
  • 10-Year: 2.08 from 2.00   
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.83 from 1.73

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Jobless claims, est. 390k, prior 393k
  • 9am: Fed’s Lockhart to give welcome at real-estate conference
  • 9:05 am: Fed’s Bullard to speak at Bloomberg event in NY
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg consumer comfort, est. -49.0, prior -50.1
  • 10am: Construction spending, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
  • 10am: ISM Manufacturing, est. 51.8, prior 50.8
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage
  • 10:30am.: EIA natural gas

 

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Nov. retail comp. sales may gain 3.1% as heavy promotions, early store openings helped holiday results: Retail Metrics
  • Thousands of workers in southern China went on strike in past week, disrupting work at companies including one that supplies equipment to IBM
  • House scheduled to vote on eliminating public financing for election campaigns
  • Senate may consider as early as today payroll tax provision for employers included in Democratic legislation
  • Senate Agriculture Committee hears from CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler, SEC Chairwoman Mary Schapiro on oversight of Wall Street Reform Act, 10am
  • House Financial Services Committee hears from Housing Secretary on health of FHA single-family insurance fund, 10am
  • House Energy and Commerce Committee marks up broadband spectrum legislation, 10am
  • House Financial Services subcommittee hears from CEOs of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, head of Federal Housing Finance Agency, at oversight hearing, 2pm

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Mugabe’s Seized Farms Boost Profits at British American Tobacco
  • Goldman Says Commodities May Rally in 2012 as Brent Surges
  • Dollar Proves Best Bet as Investors Shun Stocks for Safety
  • China’s Manufacturing Contracts for First Time Since 2009
  • Natural Gas Battered in U.K. by Milder Winter: Energy Markets
  • RBA Straddles Record House Slump, Mining Boom: Chart of the Day
  • Oil Rises to Near Two-Week High Amid Supply Risks, Euro Optimism
  • Cotton Crop Reaching Record Makes Goldman Bearish: Commodities
  • Gold May Climb on Central Bank Efforts to Tame European Crisis
  • Copper Declines on Weakest Chinese Manufacturing Since 2009
  • Stocks, Euro, Commodities Surge as Central Banks Boost Liquidity
  • Tin May Rebound 11% as China Supports Demand: Chart of the Day
  • Vale Matching Slim’s Rating Signals Debt Cost Cut: Brazil Credit
  • Codelco Starts Legal Action to Annul Mitsubishi’s Anglo Deal
  • Australian Court Freezes A$858 Million of Magnitogorsk’s Assets
  • Indonesia Spending $200 Billion Boosts Krakatau: Freight
  • Gold Average Signaling Third Monthly Rally: Technical Analysis
  • Copper Falls in London After China’s Manufacturing: LME Preview
  • Palm Oil Demand May Gain 3% in 2012, Indonesian Group Says

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS

ITALY – stocks look much different on the MIB index readings than they do on the DAX – so if you need to get paired off do it that way, but Italy failing at its first line of TRADE resistance (15,460) is a big problem.   So is the Euro failing at 1.34 – both remain in Bearish Formations and the NOV PMI data across Europe supports the markets intermediate-term view as well


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

 

ASIAN MARKETS

CHINA – when China started cutting in SEP 2008, they were serious about a serious slowdown in Chinese demand – this morning’s HSBC PMI print for NOV of 47.7 was awful (worst since 09) and Chinese stocks rallied less than they fell prior to the cut.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia pacific

MIDDLE EAST

  • Iran Clings to Oil Lifeline as U.S. Pushes Tighter Sanctions
  • Qatar’s $5 Billion Bond Sale Caps Issuance Surge: Arab Credit
  • U.K. Expels Iranian Diplomats as Tehran Faces Isolation
  • Yemen’s Saleh Still Acting Presidential in Risk to Gulf Plan
  • Citigroup Deal Haunts Pandit as Saudis Claim $383 Million
  • Indonesia Tax Breaks May Spur 40% Bank Growth: Islamic Finance
  • VTB Capital Said to Hire 4 Bankers From Credit Suisse Dubai
  • Iran Oil Sanctions Set to Shrink Circle of Foreign Buyers
  • Qatar Shares Climb Most in Three Weeks After Central Banks Act
  • Iran Would Hit U.S. Bases in Germany in Case of War, Bild Says
  • Glencore, Spain’s Cepsa in Talks Over Oil Accord, Expansion Says
  • Shuaa of Dubai Cuts 29 Jobs as It Restructures Amid Losses
  • Saudis Seek Compensation From $100 Billion Climate Funding
  • Almarai Seeks to Raise $400 Million From Sukuk Sale in 2012
  • Dubai Islamic Lender Tamweel Hires Banks for Possible Bond
  • Statement by UANI on French Shipping Company CMA CGM Ending Exports
  • EU to Widen Sanctions on Iran, Including Possible Oil Embargo 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

The Hedgeye Macro Team

Howard Penney

Managing Director