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WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK

In general, the commodities that we monitor for the purpose of monitoring important trends for the restaurant and food industries posted mixed moves over the last week.  Chicken Wings were up again as coffee and dairy costs came down.

 

STOCK THOUGHTS

 

Beef – WEN, JACK, CMG, TXRH

 

The outlook for beef in 2012 remains bullish from a price perspective and we continue to believe that restaurants with exposure to beef costs will see a dramatic increase in this item next year.  As we have been highlighting for some time, smaller cattle inventories and healthy demand from emerging markets are indicating that prices could continue to gain despite the strong trend in 2011.  It is important to note that while the export outlook is good, 80% of domestic beef production is reliant on consumption here in the U.S., according to cattlenetwork.com.   If unemployment gets worse, consumers could begin to substitute beef for chicken.  Today, at least, surging equity market seem to be reviving prospects for commodity demand but – while it is less clear what the markets will do in 2012 – the supply side picture is far more clear.

 

 

Chicken Wings – BWLD

 

Chicken wings continue to march higher.  Last week, we highlighted commentary from TSN that suggested that food service companies may focus more on chicken in 2012.  Given that processors such as SAFM are decreasing production, this could imply higher wing prices next year.  Our stance remains that 1Q12 will be difficult for BWLD as high wing prices pressure margins and the company does not have the option of preserving margins while driving sales through promotion, as it did in 3Q.  Higher wing prices do not necessarily correlate with EPS declines but, clearly, when prices are at extreme levels they become more relevant.  We expect wing prices to be up 55% or 60% year-over-year in the first quarter. 

 

 

Grains – WEN, TXRH, CMG, PNRA, DPZ

 

Wheat and corn were up over the last week and continue to trade with a high inverse correlation to the US Dollar over the short-term.  92% of winter wheat in the 18 top producing states is emerged with 52% of the crop in good or excellent condition.  The quality of the winter wheat is ahead of the previous year.  Uncertainty around the debt crisis in Europe has been leading investors to exit grain markets, according to some commentators.  CFTC data showed that noncommercial traders increased their net short position in wheat to the widest level since early 2006 during the week ended November 22nd. 

 

Corn prices have traded lower on economic concerns over the last number of weeks but are trading higher today as equity markets gain following the action taken by the many of the world’s most important central bankers this morning.  Corn prices remain up year-over-year, but there are several data points that suggest that downward pressure could continue.  Brazil is set to releases some of its corn stocks next year to meet demand from meat producers that are currently combating higher prices.   Ukraine is also stepping up its exports at these elevated prices levels.  The country may ship a record amount of corn in November, according to some researchers.  The International Grains Council also said, during the week, that the world corn harvest in 2011-12 will be less than expected even a month ago on a reduced outlook for harvests in the U.S. and Mexico. 

 

All in all, declining wheat costs will be good for DPZ and PNRA while declining corn prices, if the trend continues, will be a positive for almost all industry players given how expensive the gain has become.

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - commod 1130

 

 

CORRELATION TABLE

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - correl 1130

 

 

CHARTS

 

Coffee

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - coffee 1130

 

 

Corn

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - corn 1130

 

 

Wheat

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - wheat 1130

 

 

Beef

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - live cattle 1130

 

 

Chicken – Whole Breast

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - chicken whole breast

 

 

Chicken Wings

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - chicken wings 1130

 

 

Cheese

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - cheese 1130

 

 

Milk

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - milk 1130

 

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst


THE HBM: MCD, BAGL, CAKE

THE HEDGEYE BREAKFAST MONITOR

 

MACRO NOTES

 

Notes from CEO Keith McCullough

 

2 down days for the USD, 2 up days for Global Equities = Correlation Risk

  1. CHINA – not in headline news for the last few weeks but that doesn’t mean China’s growth slowdown (and implications to global growth) cease to exist; Chinese stocks got hammered overnight, closing down -3.3% close to their OCT lows (down -16.9% YTD). Thailand cut rates aggressively (125bps to 2.5%); expect more Asian rate cute (bullish for USD)
  2. EURO – just a pathetic week for European central planners and their currency’s credibility – rally to 1.34 is gone and now we’re testing intermediate-term lows of 1.32 again; bullish for the USD; bearish for Correlation Risk across Global Macro
  3. GOLD – down this morning because the US Dollar is up; this is a new correlation risk that’s developing and was only this high last in Q4 of 2008; immediate-term inverse correlation to USD now = -0.79 (vs TREND of +0.08). Liquidations and redemptions in the hedge fund business are significant and so is the gross and net long position in Gold. Selling what they can vs should.

Month-end is finally out of the way. Not a good month for most things other than the USD and Long-term Treasuries.

KM

 

 

SUBSECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

<chart2>

 

 

QUICK SERVICE

 

MCD: McDonald’s Corporation’s “Monopoly” promotion is the subject of a federal patent infringement suit launched by LaserLock Technologies.  LaserLock initiated the suit in 2010 against WS Packaging Group, one of the largest label converting operations in North America.

 

BAGL: Einstein Noah Restaurant Group announced the acquisition of Kettleman Bagel Company, a five-store bagel chain in Portland, Oregon.  The acquisition of Kettleman is part of the company's strategic growth plan aimed at strengthening its competitive position within the Pacific Northwest market. 

 

 

CASUAL DINING

 

CAKE: The Cheesecake Factory was reiterated “Equal-weight” by Morgan Stanley following a meeting with management.

 

THE HBM: MCD, BAGL, CAKE - stocks 1130

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst

 


Short Selling Opportunity: SP500 Levels, Refreshed

POSITION: Short SPY

 

Evidently I am really bad at getting the super-secret whisper on the next central plan to ban free-market pricing. That makes me wrong today. I sold my long position in Healthcare (XLV) this morning and will wait and watch to short SPY again.

 

If you look at either the YTD chart of the SP500 (attached) or the 3-day chart, you’re going to come to one conclusion – the US stock market continues to make a series of lower-long-term highs. 

  1. The long-term TAIL line of 1270 resistance is the big one that matters heading into DEC; today’s rally increases the probability of a down DEC
  2. The immediate-term TRADE line of 1238 makes most beta chasing securities immediate-term TRADE overbought today
  3. The intermediate-term TREND line of resistance I’d been using (1203) is now support 

Net, net, net – barring another central plan tomorrow morning (anything is possible) – this 3-day rally from 1158 to 1238 looks a lot like the one we saw on that “coordinated easing” of September 2008. Remember that?

 

I do. Short Covering was intense, but that only perpetuated the crash that ensued thereafter.

 

Big Government intervention A) shortens economic cycles and B) amplifies price volatility.

 

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Short Selling Opportunity: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - SPX


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The Lighthouse

This note was originally published November 30, 2011 at 07:49 in

“Cernowitz proved to be Schumpeter’s lighthouse.”

-Sylvia Nasar

 

In her outstanding chapter on Creative Destruction, Sylvia Nasar captures the most critical moment of a creative thought by comparing Joseph Schumpeter’s time at the University of Vienna to Albert Einstein’s at the Bern patent office (1902-1909).

 

“It gave one time to think one’s thoughts and, of course, to write them down. It also cut down on the distracting buzz of other people’s ideas.” (Grand Pursuit, page 187)

 

For the those of us who didn’t blow up other people’s money in 2008 (and again in 2011), we look and feel confident into year-end for good reason. Whether it’s me writing to you at the top of every risk management morning, or you delivering on Warren Buffett’s #1 Rule of Investing (“Don’t Lose Money”) for your families and clients – it’s all one and the same thing. Winning.

 

Together, we’ve travelled the often broken road of groupthink and we’ve seen the investment stars of bull markets rise and fall.

 

We are Wall Street 2.0. We are the change people can believe in.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

From what I can discern, there are two very different types of players on this globally interconnected market’s ice right now:

  1. Those who have stayed the course with the fundamental research call of 2011 – Global Growth Slowing
  2. Those who wake up every morning looking for a central planner to bail them out

Watching the US Equity futures trade this morning captures the essence of how short-term the group-thinking associated with the Type 2 Player in this game has become:

  1. At 4AM EST, I jot down in my trusty notebook “China down -3.3% to down -16.9% YTD, testing October lows”
  2. At 6AM EST, headline hits “China cuts reserve requirements, 50 basis points”

First, set aside the fact that few, if any, market sources even mentioned point #1 (no surprise there) and then realize that the S&P futures went from down 8 points to up 8 in a nanosecond of what could be best described as media panting about point #2 on Twitter.

 

Twitter, you see, is replacing what Old Wall Street calls “the tape.” On Wall Street 2.0, tweeters with analytical competence not only capture the China like headline “news” in real-time but have it synthesized within seconds.

 

Being fast isn’t being a “short-term” investor. It’s just called being smarter and faster.

 

Back to the China thread…

 

Sometimes getting your brain somewhere fast helps you recognize you need to slow down. Doing nothing in a market that’s trading on the “distracting buzz of other people’s ideas” of what the headline actually means is critical. The media’s immediate-term reaction to an alleged 1.3 TRILLION Eurocrat bazooka in late October is a good example of that (i.e. they don’t have one yet).

 

What does China’s decision to cut reserve requirements on banks mean?

 

It means China’s economic slowdown is accelerating on the downside, big time. The Chinese act, proactively, when they see a domestic demand problem.

 

What happens as the #1 unlevered growth engine of the world slows from double digit GDP growth to mid-single digits? You don’t even have to think too hard to figure that answer out. Global Growth Slowing matters to market multiples.

 

Context:

  1. The last time China started cutting reserve requirement rates was September 2008
  2. China continued to cut those rates until December of 2008
  3. US stocks didn’t stop going down until March of 2009

If you didn’t know that most US centric “stock pickers” are growth investors, now you know. As growth slows, stocks fall. Pull up charts of Apple, Amazon, or American Airlines (kidding – just needed another company starting with an A for literary purposes) and you’ll see, quite clearly, what the market is already discounting about Q4 versus Q3 Global Growth and demand.

 

If you flip a switch back to how that Type 2 Player continues to play the game – the Top 3 Begging For Bailouts headlines they are looking for are now as follows:

  1. European “shock & awe” money printing
  2. Fed getting sucked into to a QE3
  3. China rate cuts

From the vantage point of The Hedgeye Lighthouse this morning, all I have to say about all 3 of those options is that the Type 2 Players better be very mindful of what they wish for. Growth Slowing is a requirement for all three.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Brent Oil, French stocks (CAC40), Amazon, Apple, and the SP500 are now $1661-1732, $108.53-110.59, 2923-3067, $177-209, $361-385, and 1147-1203, respectively. Lower-highs across the board.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

The Lighthouse - Chart of the Day

 

The Lighthouse - Virtual Portfolio


THE M3: MPEL HK LISTING; LAWRENCE HO INTENTIONS; HOTEL ROOMS

The Macau Metro Monitor, November 30, 2011

 

 

MELCO COULD LIST 6% SHARE IN HK Macau Daily Times, Reuters

Melco International Development signed a sale and buyback agreement for part of its 33.2% stake in Melco Crown to help support the company’s planned dual listing in Hong Kong.  Melco International Development loaned a 3% stake to the listing sponsors and pledged to lend as much as a further 3% stake to support “liquidity activities”.


Melco Crown wants to complete the listing by the end of this year but it’s not planning for a global offering in view of “current market sentiment,” it said last week.  Instead of issuing new shares, Melco Crown would instead choose a listing of shares already on issue. This alternative, called listing by introduction, would raise no additional funds. “The company will continue to evaluate future fund raising plans."  Trading in its HK shares is expected to start on Dec. 7 under the listing symbol HK6883.

 

"We are comfortable that we can fund our equity component of the financing of Macau studio city with existing cash and cashflow," said MPEL CFO Geoffrey Davis, adding that discussions with banks were in progress for financing.  Regarding VIP concerns, "We are not seeing any changes in patterns in terms of velocity of money. Things have been pretty consistent for the last 12-18 months," Davis stated.

 

CEO Lawrence Ho told reporters that Melco was ready to kickstart the project and was waiting on government processes.

Ho said Melco would aim to outperform the broader industry's gaming revenue growth in the coming year.  "Growth rates of some 50-60% are not sustainable in the long run.  In 2012, I expect industry growth to be around 15-20%," he said.

 

LAWRENCE HO MAKES HIS INTENTIONS CLEAR WSJ

Mr. Ho does not intend to become a director of rival Macau casino operators SJM or MGM China.  Though Lawrence Ho has small effective interests in both Shun Tak and SJM, he says he doesn’t have any involvement in the companies’ management or operations.

 

SUPPLIES OF HOTEL ROOMS IN MACAU MIGHT SURPASS DEMAND Macau Daily News

The government announced that there are a total of 12 hotel projects under construction, supplying 10,700 hotel rooms, of which 9 projects are on the Macau peninsula, and 3 projects in Cotai, supplying 9,880 rooms.  Projects pending for approval
totaled 20, supplying 13,890 hotel rooms, where 14 projects were on the Macau peninsula, 2 on Taipa, 3 on Cotai and 1 on Coloane.  The hotel industry worries that the supply of hotel rooms will exceed the demand once the number of tourists drop, and hotels without casino support will not be able to survive the competition.


CRUISING THROUGH THE WEEKEND REVPAR DATA

Solid weekend RevPAR data good for cruiselines.

 

 

Despite a difficult US macro environment, weekend REVPAR has been surprisingly resilient particularly over the last month.  Why do we care?  Our research has shown that net yields have a strong correlation (R: >80%) and onboard/other yields have an even stronger (R: >85%) correlation with weekend REVPAR.  

 

As the charts below show, not only has weekend RevPAR been strong, the spread over weekday REVPAR growth has recently widened on a 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year comparison.  The outperformance can be attributed to weekend REVPAR underperforming significantly when the economy tanked (mid-October 2008 through early December 2008), so part of what we are seeing is a catch up.  There is a calendar anomaly (Thanksgiving 2008) which will reverse some of the gains by Weekend REVPAR.

 

Either way, RevPAR trends remains solid, outperforming the broader economy, with leisure (weekends) doing even better.

 

CRUISING THROUGH THE WEEKEND REVPAR DATA - cruise1

 

CRUISING THROUGH THE WEEKEND REVPAR DATA - cruise2

 

CRUISING THROUGH THE WEEKEND REVPAR DATA - cruise3

 

CRUISING THROUGH THE WEEKEND REVPAR DATA - cruise4

 

Weekend REVPAR shows the strongest relationship with net onboard/other yields.  The charts below display Q4 trending above 10% for Weekend REVPAR, which would be a sharp acceleration from Q3.

 

CRUISING THROUGH THE WEEKEND REVPAR DATA - CCL

 

CRUISING THROUGH THE WEEKEND REVPAR DATA - RCL

 

While we are concerned about the cruisers for FQ4 due to the uncertainty stemming from Europe, the North American business has been healthy.  Furthermore, the momentum could carry into Q1 2012.  Our pricing database shows Q1 2012 pricing in the Caribbean, South America, and Mexico has been quite strong.  We will provide a pricing update in an upcoming note.



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