THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

11/29/11 07:46AM EST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK


TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 29, 2011


We are once again seeing the “fun and games with month-end markups” on no volume.   Buyers beware of the US economic data Wednesday-Friday - expectations are too high.  If you want to get bulled up on something into the start of the new month, go with US Dollar (UUP) or Long-Bond (TLT) on red today.

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 32 points or -1.81% downside to 1171 and 0.88% upside to 1203. 


SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels andtrends1128

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: +2044 (+2429) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 958.60 (+116.99%)
  • VIX:  +33.13 -6.79% YTD PERFORMANCE: +81.01%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.71 from 1.88 (+44.21%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 50.66
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.03%
  • 10-Year: 1.97 from 1.97   
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.71 from 1.69

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook comp sales
  • 9am: S&P Case-Shiller, est. -.10% M/M, -3% Y/y
  • 10am: Consumer Confidence, est. 44.0 (prior 39.8)
  • 10am: Home price index (prior -0.6%)
  • 11:30am: Fed’s Yellen speaks on global recovery in SF
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $35b 4-wk bills
  • 12:15pm: Fed’s Raskin moderates panels in SF
  • 12:27pm: Fed’s Lockhart to speak on U.S. economy in Atlanta
  • 12:30pm: IMF publishes paper on capital flows
  • 4:30pm: Fed’s Williams speaks to reporters in SF
  • 4:30pm: API inventories
  • 7:30pm: ECB’s Stark speaks in Dallas
  • 8pm: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks to reporters in Calif.

 

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Facebook said to consider raising ~$10b in IPO that would value it at more than $100b
  • Italy sold 6% 2014 bonds to yield 7.89%, up from 4.93% at Oct. 28 auction for 4.25% 2014 bonds; Italian-German 10-year yield spread shrinks 6 bps to 493 bps after auction
  • S&P may revise bank credit ratings within next week
  • Silver Lake said to be working with Microsoft to bid for minority stake in Yahoo!; Andreessen Horowitz also weighing possible bid
  • President Obama in Washington, meets with Dutch PM Mark Rutte
  • Secretary of State Clinton traveling to South Korea, Myanmar
  • House, Senate in session
  • Supreme Court in session, hearing arguments at 11am in case involving securities suits

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Speculators Cut Holdings to Lowest Since July 2009: Commodities
  • Stocks, Commodities Advance on Europe Outlook, U.S. Retail Sales
  • Oil Drops From One-Week High on Forecast U.S. Stockpiles Rose
  • Stopping Turkey Tails at the Border Pits Trade Against Health
  • Japan Extends Rice-Shipment Ban After Sales of Tainted Grain
  • Gold May Climb for Second Day With Equities Before European Meet
  • Chemicals Seen Boosting Odfjell as Demand Swamps Fleet: Freight
  • Copper Drops as Moody’s Considers Downgrading European Bank Debt
  • Oil Rises a Third Day as Euro, Stocks Signal European Confidence
  • Copper Mining ‘Issues’ Support Shortage Outlook, Citigroup Says
  • Thai Sugar Production to Reach Record as Floods Spare Crops
  • Copper Falls as Moody’s May Downgrade Europe Banks: LME Preview
  • Rio Wins Battle for Hathor as Cameco Says It Won’t Raise Bid
  • Oil Pares Decline Before European Debt-Crisis Talks; Brent Gains
  • Palm Oil Has Longest Losing Streak in Two Years on Europe Crisis
  • Icahn Bids for Commercial Metals in Deal Worth $1.73 Billion
  • Freeport Cerro Verde Workers Vote to End Two-Month Strike
  • Copper May Gain in London on Speculation About Supply Shortfall

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

CURRENCIES

EURO – another day, another hope that a USD selloff and a Euro rally is real. Unfortunately, the math is getting in the way of that; EUR/USD has an important short-term line of resistance that it’s been fighting for 48 hrs at 1.34; ultimately, the bigger lines that matter are TRADE and TAIL resistance of 1.36 and 1.40, respectively.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS

ITALY - On its shortest duration (the 2014 bonds) Italy Sells another €3.5B at 7.89%; a few months ago 6% was the "critical" line, then 7%, now I guess its 8%? C’mon. Let’s get as serious as Spread Risk is telling you to be here – Italian stocks are barely up this morning – and more importantly, down -37% since FEB (crashing) – no support for the MIB Index to 13,422

  • Eurozone Economic sentiment 93.7 vs consensus 94.00 and prior revised to 94.8 from 94.8
  • Eurozone Business Climate (0.44) vs consensus (0.30) and prior revised to (0.19) from (0.18)
  • Eurozone Industrial Sentiment (7.3) vs consensus (7.6) and prior revised to (6.5) from (6.6)
  • Eurozone Consumer Sentiment (20.4) vs consensus (20.4) and prior revised to (19.9) from (19.9)

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

 

ASIAN MARKETS

INDIA – stocks decided a 1-day rally to a lower-high was enough. Inflation isn’t going away on EUR/USD up days because Oil prices aren’t going down (Brent $110/barrel last), and Indian stocks don’t like sticky stagflation – down -1% overnight, taking the Sensex to 16,002 (down -22% for 2011 YTD).

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

MIDDLE EAST

  • Broad, Gagosian, Qatar Sheikha, Ai Weiwei Make Art Power List
  • Bangladesh Bank Rules Lure Standard Chartered: Islamic Finance
  • U.A.E. Starts Investing in U.S. Treasuries With Better Rates
  • Heroin Hidden in Raisins From Iran Seized in Sydney, Police Say
  • Syria Says Sanctions Are ‘Economic War’ as UN Reports Abuses
  • Iran Blast Reports in Nuclear Province Fuels Sabotage Suspicion
  • First Gulf Bank of Abu Dhabi Raises Foreign Ownership to 25%
  • Qatar Shares Climbs to One-Week High Before Europe Debt Meeting
  • GCC Banks Aim to Focus on SMEs, Youth and Women, Accenture Says
  • Hindustan Times: Iran threatens to bomb Turkey if US or Israel attack
  • Narrow-Body Engines Roar at Dubai Airshow, Led by CFM
  • Saudi Cable Won Orders Valued at 1.1 Billion Riyals This Month
  • Qatar Said to Sell Dollar Bonds Maturing in January 2017, 2022
  • Abu Dhabi Maintains Cuts in January Supply of Murban Crude
  • Kuwait Government Resigns Amid Growing Opposition Protests
  • Balfour Beatty Unit Wins GBP104m 5-Yr Qatar Consultancy Contract
  • OPEC Likely to Cut Output in December
  • First Gulf Gains Most in 2 Weeks on Foreign Ownership Limit

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

The Hedgeye Macro Team

Howard Penney

Managing Director

© 2024 Hedgeye Risk Management, LLC. The information contained herein is the property of Hedgeye, which reserves all rights thereto. Redistribution of any part of this information is prohibited without the express written consent of Hedgeye. Hedgeye is not responsible for any errors in or omissions to this information, or for any consequences that may result from the use of this information.