Ever Is A Long Time

"I'm not known as a goal scorer, but I have found my role by doing other things. The nice thing about this team is that everyone contributes."
-Matt Nelson, Yale Hockey Captain 2009



In this weekend's ECAC Hockey Playoff semi-final, Yale was down by a goal with less than a minute and a half left in the game, and scored two goals in the span of 22 seconds to knock off St Lawrence. Westwood Massachusetts's Matt Nelson scored the game winner with 66 seconds left on the clock. Then our man with the Edge (soon be named CEO here if no one in the NHL signs him), Alec Richards, stoned Cornell - shutting them out in the Championship game and securing Yale's 1st ECAC title ever.

EVER is a long time. Said American leaders from Washington to Wall Street could learn a lot from this young American Captain's aforementioned winning attitude and quote. After making one of the biggest plays in his college's history, all he wanted to do was talk about his teammates.

Winning is contagious. So is losing. From the Sunday talk shows to the protests in front of residential lawns in parts of Connecticut I, for one, am done with associating myself with people in our industry who have done the wrong things when no one is looking. Pointing fingers is what losing teams do. Losing is not what Americans do.

If you want to start winning, get up and just be the change you want to see in this business. That's what we're doing here in New Haven, CT. That's why I am not buying into this ridiculous notion that we are in a Great Depression. This is a Great Recession, and there are no doubt plenty of losers out there in it who are rightly depressed.

EVER is a long time. In the face of the US Dollar having its biggest weekly decline EVER (since the Euro came into being), US Equities were a big winner again, locking in their 2nd consecutive week of gains. With the SP500 closing up +1.6% on the week, the cumulative 2-week advance was a rip higher of +12.3%. If you don't trade or you missed the TRADE, don't get upset with me; the trough-to peak squeeze was the most expedited we have seen over the span of 2 weeks since 1939. Stock markets can crash versus consensus expectations, both ways.

The US Dollar versus the US stock market is THE macro inverse correlation that's mattered most since we moved to 96% Cash in September 2008. If you made sales into the intraday highs of Wednesday March 20th, congratulations. That SP500 intraday high of 801 marked a +18.5% branding (trough-to-peak) on the foreheads of every Depressionista short seller of the March 9th, 2009 YTD low. I think the SP500 is going to close above that line at some point in the next 3 weeks. My immediate term target is 807.

Intermediate term Bear Market tops and bottoms are processes, not points. I understand and appreciate that some investors have been preaching that they don't "trade." I understand that no one is supposed to be able to be a "market timer." That's the narrative fallacy of an industry that wants everyone to believe that mediocrity is an acceptable outcome. Matt Nelson wasn't supposed to score that goal Friday night either...

EVER is a long time. When it comes to finding evolutionary investment processes that can capitalize on where the investment game is going rather than where it has been, I never say never. The year-to-date stock market performance score is now China +28% YTD, USA -15% YTD. Americans better start taking a good hard long look in the mirror, because there are another 5.75 Billion people in this world who are chomping at the bit to prove that they can do what they aren't "supposed" to be able to do. Darwin's rules have NEVER had geographical boundaries.

Overnight, China took our "Break The Buck" baton from Ben Bernanke and assured the world that they see US Bonds as an "important element" of the Chinese "investment strategy." This is what winners do. They lead - understanding that others will follow the leader, or simply get be forced out of the way.

The Russians and Australians are all following the leader, and starting to get paid for it! Alongside China closing up another +2% last night, Australia added another +2.3% to its recent gains and is now breaking out from an intermediate TREND perspective. Australia has both the economic proximity and trusting respect of THE Client. In a part of the world where handshakes still matter, this is important.

Russia is currently trading up another +4.5% this morning, taking it's cumulative 5-week reflation to +41%! Guess what else has reflated to the tune of 41% in the last 5 weeks - that winner would be the price of West Texas Crude Oil!

Whether it's the Russian stock market being up +15.3% for 2009 to-date, or all of the winning TRENDS we are seeing for investors in copper to Brazil, it's all one and the same to those of us who understand what forever means...

Forever and EVER, is a long time - and so is the American dream to be on the winning team. I've taken my Asset Allocation to Cash down to 59%, and I am getting invested in winners.

Go Yale Hockey in the East Regionals this weekend!
KM


LONG ETFS

EWC - iShares Canada-We bought Canada on Friday 3/20 into the selloff. We want to own what THE client (China) needs, namely commodities, as China builds out its infrastructure. Canada will benefit from commodity reflation, especially as the USD breaks down. We're net positive Harper's leadership, which diverges from Canada's socialist past, and believe next year's Olympics in gold-rich Vancouver should provide a positive catalyst for investors to get long the country.   

RSX - Market Vectors Russia-The Russian macro fundamentals line up with our quantitative view on a TREND duration. Oil has benefited from the breakdown of the USD, which has buoyed the commodity levered economy. We're seeing the Ruble stabilize and are bullish Russia's decision to mark prices to market, which has allowed it to purge its ills earlier in the financial crisis cycle. Russia recognizes the important of THE client, China, and its oil agreement in February with China in return for a loan of $25 Billion will help recapitalize two of the country's important energy producers and suppliers.  

DJP - iPath Dow Jones-AIG Commodity -With the USD breaking down we want to be long commodity re-flation. DJP broadens our asset class allocation beyond oil and gold.  

XLK - SPDR Technology-Technology looks positive on a TRADE and TREND basis. Fundamentally, the sector has shown signs of stabilization over the last several weeks.  Semiconductor stocks, which are early cycle, have provided numerous positive data points on the back of destocking in the channel and overall end demand appears to be stabilizing.  Software earnings from ADBE and ORCL were less than toxic this week and point to a "less bad" environment.  As the world stabilizes, M&A should pick up given cash rich balance sheets in this sector and an IBM/JAVA transaction may well prove the catalyst to get things going.

EWZ - iShares Brazil- The Bovespa is up 6.7% YTD. President Lula da Silva is the most economically effective of the populist Latin American leaders; on his watch policy makers have kept inflation at bay with a high rate policy and serviced debt -leading to an investment grade credit rating. Brazil cut its benchmark interest rate 150bps to 11.25% on 3/11 and will likely cut again next month to spur growth. Brazil is a major producer of commodities. We believe the country's profile matches up well with our re-flation theme: as the USD breaks down global equities and commodity prices will inflate.  

EWA - iShares Australia-EWA has a nice dividend yield of 7.54% on the trailing 12-months.  With interest rates at 3.25% (further room to stimulate) and a $26.5BN stimulus package in place, plus a commodity based economy with proximity to China's H1 reacceleration, there are a lot of ways to win being long Australia.

CAF - Morgan Stanley China fund - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is up +27.7% for 2009 to-date. We're long China as a growth story, especially relative to other large economies. We believe the country's domestic appetite for raw materials will continue throughout 2009 as the country re-flates. From the initial stimulus package to cutting taxes, the Chinese have shown leadership and a proactive response to the credit crisis.

GLD - SPDR Gold- We bought gold on a down day. We believe gold will re-find its bullish TREND.

DVY - Dow Jones Select Dividend -We like DVY's high dividend yield of 5.85%.


SHORT ETFS

VXX - iPath S&P500 VIX - Volatility raged up +5.06% on Friday (3/20). We're off our manic highs of the VIX at 80 from November '08 and expect volatility to continue to break down as US equities TREND upward.

LQD  - iShares Corporate Bonds- Corporate bonds have had a huge move off their 2008 lows and we expect with the eventual rising of interest rates in the back half of 2009 that bonds will give some of that move back. Moody's estimates US corporate bond default rates to climb to 15.1% in 2009, up from a previous 2009 estimate of 10.4%.

EWJ - iShares Japan - Into the strength associated with the recent market squeeze, we re-shorted the Japanese equity market rally via EWJ. This is a tactical short; we expect the market there to pull back when reality sinks in over the coming weeks. Japan has experienced major GDP contraction-it dropped 3.2% in Q4 '08 on a quarterly basis, and we see no catalyst for growth to return this year. We believe the BOJ's recent program to provide $10 Billion in loans to repair banks' capital ratios and a plan to combat rising yields by buying treasuries are at best a "band aid".

EWU - iShares UK -The UK economy is in its deepest recession since WWII. We're bearish on the country because of a number of macro factors. From a monetary standpoint we believe the Central Bank has done "too little too late" to manage the interest rate and now it is running out of room to cut. The benchmark currently stands at 0.50% after a 50bps reduction on 3/5. While the Central Bank is printing money and buying government Treasuries to help capitalize its increasingly nationalized banks, the country has a considerable ways to go in the face of severe deflation. Unemployment  is on the rise, housing prices continue to fall, and the trade deficit continues to steepen month-over-month, which will hurt the export-dependent economy.

DIA -Diamonds Trust-We re-shorted the DJIA on Friday (3/13) on an up move as we believe on a TRADE basis, the risk / reward for the market favors the downside.

EWW - iShares Mexico- We're short Mexico due in part to the country's dependence on export revenues from one monopolistic oil company, PEMEX. Mexican oil exports contribute significantly to the country's total export revenue and PEMEX pays a sizable percentage of taxes and royalties to the federal government's budget. This relationship is unstable due to the volatility of oil prices, the inability of PEMEX to pay down its debt, and the fact that PEMEX's crude oil production has been in decline since 2004 and is down 10% YTD.  Additionally, the potential geo-political risks associated with the burgeoning power of regional drug lords signals that the country's economy is under serious duress.

IFN -The India Fund- We have had a consistently negative bias on Indian equities since we launched the firm early last year. We believe the growth story of "Chindia" is dead. We contest that the Indian population, grappling with rampant poverty, a class divide, and poor health and education services, will not be able to sustain internal consumption levels sufficient to meet targeted growth level. Other negative trends we've followed include: the reversal of foreign investment, the decrease in equity issuance, and a massive national deficit. Trade data for February paints a grim picture with exports declining by 15.87% Y/Y and imports sliding by 18.22%.

XLP - SPDR Consumer Staples-The negative TREND for consumer staples remains. It  traded 2 cents from the Shark line again on Friday. Should it break-watch out below.

SHY - iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bonds- On 2/26 we witnessed 2-Year Treasuries climb 10 bps to 1.09%. Anywhere north of +0.97% moves the bonds that trade on those yields into a negative intermediate "Trend." If you pull up a three year chart of 2-Year Treasuries you'll see the massive macro Trend of interest rates starting to move in the opposite direction. We call this chart the "Queen Mary" and its new-found positive slope means that America's cost of capital will start to go up, implying that access to capital will tighten. Yield is inversely correlated to bond price, so the rising yield is bearish for Treasuries.


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