THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 25, 2011

 

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 42 points or -0.67% downside to 1154 and 2.94% upside to 1196. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 1125

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -2332 (-708) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 876 (-.025%)
  • VIX:  +33.98 -2.85% YTD PERFORMANCE: +91.44%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.67 from 1.76 (-5.1%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 49.64
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.02%
  • 10-Year: 1.92 from 1.88    
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.65 from 1.86

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • No U.S. economic data releases scheduled
  • Italian borrowing costs surge at bill, coupon auctions

 

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Many retailers opened on Thanksgiving Day, others at midnight, as Black Friday marks traditional beginning of holiday-shopping season; discounting more widespread than last year as retailers try woo shoppers spooked by global economic uncertainty, stagnant job growth
  • AT&T said yesterday will take $4b charge, pulled application from FCC to buy T-Mobile USA to focus on DOJ clearance
  • Microsoft yesterday said to sign non-disclosure agreement with Yahoo
  • Chevron yesterday was blocked from drilling in Brazil while government probes recent spill
  • Olympus’s former president Michael C. Woodford pledges to work with board to try and avoid delisting after 3 executives implicated in scheme to hide losses resigned
  • India approves allowing overseas companies to own as much as 51% of retailers selling more than one brand, paving the way for global cos. such as Wal-Mart Stores and Tesco to own stores
  • Hungarian bond yields rise most since February 2009 after Moody’s cuts rating to junk
  • ECB’s Coene says rate cut probable if current trends continue
  • Egypt’s ruling military council asks former Prime Minister Kamal el-Ganzouri to form new government
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel yesterday ruled out joint euro-area borrowing, expanded role for ECB in fighting debt crisis
  • Italy meets max target of EU2b zero coupon auction, borrowing costs surge.
  • No IPOs expected to price

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Bank Commodity Staff Turnover Seen Gaining as Rules Tighten
  • Record Gold Hoard Spurs Bullish Bets From Traders: Commodities
  • Copper Falls, Heads for Weekly Drop on Europe Borrowing Costs
  • Oil Heads for Second Weekly Loss on Europe; Mirae Sees Iran Risk
  • Gold Declines as Investors Turn to Dollar for Haven From Europe
  • Wheat, Soybeans Slide Amid Concern Crisis Will Weigh on Demand
  • Sugar Slides to Five-Month Low on Indian Exports; Cocoa Falls
  • Aluminum Traders Probably Added to Wagers on Declining Prices
  • Fonterra Aims to Double China Sales by 2020, CEO Spierings Says
  • First Beef Bonds in Two Years Set For Market: Argentina Credit
  • Copper Shortfall Likely to Remain in 2012, OZ Minerals Says
  • No Coal Rebound Seen in Asia on Power Price Curb: Energy Markets
  • Global Rubber Demand to Grow 4% Through 2020 on Emerging Markets
  • Vale’s Puts at Record as China’s Iron Ore Demand Slows: Options
  • India May Permit More Sugar Exports After Assessing Crushing

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

 

CURRENCIES

 

KING DOLLAR – big long-term TAIL breakout in the US Dollar continues to hold its gains this morning as the Euro moves to immediate-term TRADE oversold at 1.32. If the Germans aren’t going to cooperate with the Bailout Beggars, Draghi is going to move towards more aggressive ECB rate cuts = bearish for the Euro, bullish for the USD (intermediate-term TREND)

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

ITALY – complete mess as the Italians sell €10B of 6mth fiat at 6.50% vs 3.53% last; that’s just a monster jump in funding costs and both the Italian bond and stock markets continue to have this right. Markets don’t lie; politicians do. MIB Index moves to immediate-term TRADE oversold at 13,711.

 

HUNGARY – small country but they all matter in this game of dominos; Hungary is begging for an IMF bailout and Moodys decided to cut their credit rating to junk this morning = -4.6% drop in Hungarian stocks and the story just moved to #1 on Bloomberg most read.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

 

 


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