Taxi data suggests a strong October for Strip gaming volumes (ex Baccarat).
The Nevada Taxicab Authority recently reported that October taxi trips increased 8.2% YoY. A couple of weeks earlier, McCarran Airport reported the busiest single month for taxi traffic in the airport’s 63-year history as the taxi count was 322,322. These two data points bode well for non-baccarat gaming volumes in October. Of the gaming metrics—Slot Volume, Table Volume, Baccarat Volume, Total Volume ex Baccarat, and Total Volume—total volume ex Baccarat has the highest correlation with the taxi data. This is not surprising as baccarat players are usually chauffeured to the Vegas casinos.
The chart below shows year-on-year change for Vegas taxi trips and total volume ex Baccarat from January 2000 to Sept 2011. Correlation was 0.65 and the t-stat was 9.7, which signals that the variable is very statistically significant. Assuming Lady Luck is steady and baccarat doesn’t swing around too much, October could be a decent month in Vegas.