THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK
TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 22, 2011
OVERSOLD is as oversold does. Yesterday’s SP500 immediate-term TRADE oversold line = 1187 and this morning’s math gets me 1186, so that’s the zone. Problem with that so far is that a 10-14 point bounce can’t get us back above 1203 (TREND line resistance). As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 22 points or -0.59% downside to 1186 and 1.26% upside to 1208.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -2157 (-2568)
- VOLUME: NYSE 932.24 (-2.45%)
- VIX: +32.91 +2.54% YTD PERFORMANCE: +85.41%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.81 from 1.05 (+72.62%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 48.99
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.02%
- 10-Year: 1.97 from 2.01
- YIELD CURVE: 1.70 from 1.72
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7:45/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly comp retail sales
- 8:30am: GDP, Q/q, (Annualized), est. 2.5% (prior 2.5%)
- 8:30am: Personal Consumption, est. 2.4% (prior 2.4%)
- 10:00am: Richmond Fed, est. -2 (prior -6)
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell 4-wk bills
- 1:00pm: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks in Winnipeg
- 1:00pm: U.S. to sell $35b 5-yr notes
- 2:00pm: FOMC minutes of Nov. 1-2 meeting released
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Germany sees no alternative to current policy to fight euro- zone financial crisis, Merkel ally says
- S&P, Moody’s won’t lower ratings on the U.S. after supercommittee talks fail
- Quinnipiac University holds news conference on results of national poll on 2012 GOP presidential contenders
- Obama makes speech on American Jobs Act in at high school in Manchester, N.H.
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
GOLD – We are long and wrong Gold here and do not like it having broke its intermediate-term TREND line of $1722/oz. Gold selling off like this has a lot more to do with liquidations in the hedge fund business than anything else. Performance is not good out there.
- Supercommittee Failure Threatens Recovery as Rating Affirmed
- World Bank Says Asia Has Room for Stimulus to Limit Europe Hit
- Oil-Tanker Rally Threatened as Ships Seen Accelerating: Freight
- DuPont Faces Squeeze as Titanium Ore Costs Advance: Commodities
- Gold Rebounds From Four-Week Low as Debt Concerns Spur Demand
- Iron Ore May Resume Fall as Demand Declines, Ord’s Arden Says
- Copper Advances as China Imports Rise, Global Inventories Drop
- Stocks Slump as Treasuries Rise on U.S. Budget; Euro Trims Loss
- Hong Kong Bourse to Introduce Commodities Trading, CEO Says
- India’s Gold Imports May Drop 15% as Rupee Plunges to Record
- Lupatech Default Bets Send Bonds to Record Low: Brazil Credit
- BHP Leads Mining Bond Sales in Surge to Record: Australia Credit
- Oil Trades Near One-Week Low on Speculation U.S. Stockpiles Rose
- Ex-Goldman Commodities Chief Plans Hedge Fund, SparkSpread Says
- Oil Gains First Day in Four as U.S. Expands Sanctions on Iran
- UBS Names Ed Carroll, Hector Freitas to Head Commodities
- Vale Proposes Tito Martins as CFO in Management Reshuffle
- Palm Oil May Gain After Breaking Resistance: Technical Analysis
- Rio Says Some Mines Are Affected by Orica Plant Shutdown
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
ASIA – better than bad is the best way to describe how Asian stocks traded after the European and US selloff. Again, immediate-term TRADE ranges are what they are – they always get overbought/oversold. India finally arrested its recent decline, +0.75%.
MIDDLE EAST
- Oil Abundance in Canada Provokes Anxiety Over Fossil Fuel Lust
- U.S. Targets Iran Oil, Bank in Bid to Halt Nuclear Program
- Egypt Cabinet Offers to Resign as Mass Protests Planned
- OPEC May Cut Production at December Meeting, Luaibi Says
- Malaysia Leveraged Buyout Sukuk to Fund PLUS: Islamic Finance
- Oil Gains First Day in Four as U.S. Expands Sanctions on Iran
- DUBAI'S BENCHMARK STOCK INDEX CLOSES AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2004
- Mizuho, Mitsubishi UFJ to Finance $1.6 Billion Oman Project
- Saudi Shiites Protest in Eastern City of Qatif After Man Killed
- Dubai Shares Fall to Seven-Year Low on U.S., Europe Growth Risk
- ADCB May Offer Benchmark Bond in First-Half of 2012, CFO Says
- Abu Dhabi Taqa Offers to Buy Back Bonds, Will Meet Investors
- Doha Bank Plans to Sell Bond in First Quarter, Deputy CFO Says
- Dubai’s Stocks Fall to Lowest Level in More than Seven Years
- Dubai’s Al Wasl Brokerage May Shut as Stocks Slump to 2004 Low
- Saudi Aramco Turns to Gas, Petrochemicals as Oil Demand Wanes
- Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank Said to Sell $500 Million Five-Year Bond
- Iraq Oil Minister Expects Output Cut at Next OPEC Meeting
- N.Y. Man Faces Terror Charges After FBI Said to Decline Case
- Genel, Biggest Kurdistan Oil Producer, Falls in London Debutukuk
The Hedgeye Macro Team
Howard Penney
Managing Director