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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 22, 2011

OVERSOLD is as oversold does. Yesterday’s SP500 immediate-term TRADE oversold line = 1187 and this morning’s math gets me 1186, so that’s the zone.  Problem with that so far is that a 10-14 point bounce can’t get us back above 1203 (TREND line resistance).  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 22 points or -0.59% downside to 1186 and 1.26% upside to 1208. 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - hrmsl

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - bpgm1

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - hrmsp

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -2157 (-2568) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 932.24 (-2.45%)
  • VIX:  +32.91 +2.54% YTD PERFORMANCE: +85.41%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.81 from 1.05 (+72.62%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 48.99
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.02%
  • 10-Year: 1.97 from 2.01   
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.70 from 1.72

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:45/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly comp retail sales
  • 8:30am: GDP, Q/q, (Annualized), est. 2.5% (prior 2.5%)
  • 8:30am: Personal Consumption, est. 2.4% (prior 2.4%)
  • 10:00am: Richmond Fed, est. -2 (prior -6)
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell 4-wk bills
  • 1:00pm: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks in Winnipeg
  • 1:00pm: U.S. to sell $35b 5-yr notes
  • 2:00pm: FOMC minutes of Nov. 1-2 meeting released

 

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Germany sees no alternative to current policy to fight euro- zone financial crisis, Merkel ally says
  • S&P, Moody’s won’t lower ratings on the U.S. after supercommittee talks fail
  • Quinnipiac University holds news conference on results of national poll on 2012 GOP presidential contenders
  • Obama makes speech on American Jobs Act in at high school in Manchester, N.H.

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

GOLD – We are long and wrong Gold here and do not like it having broke its intermediate-term TREND line of $1722/oz. Gold selling off like this has a lot more to do with liquidations in the hedge fund business than anything else. Performance is not good out there.

  • Supercommittee Failure Threatens Recovery as Rating Affirmed
  • World Bank Says Asia Has Room for Stimulus to Limit Europe Hit
  • Oil-Tanker Rally Threatened as Ships Seen Accelerating: Freight
  • DuPont Faces Squeeze as Titanium Ore Costs Advance: Commodities
  • Gold Rebounds From Four-Week Low as Debt Concerns Spur Demand
  • Iron Ore May Resume Fall as Demand Declines, Ord’s Arden Says
  • Copper Advances as China Imports Rise, Global Inventories Drop
  • Stocks Slump as Treasuries Rise on U.S. Budget; Euro Trims Loss
  • Hong Kong Bourse to Introduce Commodities Trading, CEO Says
  • India’s Gold Imports May Drop 15% as Rupee Plunges to Record
  • Lupatech Default Bets Send Bonds to Record Low: Brazil Credit
  • BHP Leads Mining Bond Sales in Surge to Record: Australia Credit
  • Oil Trades Near One-Week Low on Speculation U.S. Stockpiles Rose
  • Ex-Goldman Commodities Chief Plans Hedge Fund, SparkSpread Says
  • Oil Gains First Day in Four as U.S. Expands Sanctions on Iran
  • UBS Names Ed Carroll, Hector Freitas to Head Commodities
  • Vale Proposes Tito Martins as CFO in Management Reshuffle
  • Palm Oil May Gain After Breaking Resistance: Technical Analysis
  • Rio Says Some Mines Are Affected by Orica Plant Shutdown

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - dcommv

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - dcurrv

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - bpem1

 

ASIAN MARKETS

ASIA – better than bad is the best way to describe how Asian stocks traded after the European and US selloff.  Again, immediate-term TRADE ranges are what they are – they always get overbought/oversold. India finally arrested its recent decline, +0.75%.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - bpam1

MIDDLE EAST

  • Oil Abundance in Canada Provokes Anxiety Over Fossil Fuel Lust
  • U.S. Targets Iran Oil, Bank in Bid to Halt Nuclear Program
  • Egypt Cabinet Offers to Resign as Mass Protests Planned
  • OPEC May Cut Production at December Meeting, Luaibi Says
  • Malaysia Leveraged Buyout Sukuk to Fund PLUS: Islamic Finance
  • Oil Gains First Day in Four as U.S. Expands Sanctions on Iran
  • DUBAI'S BENCHMARK STOCK INDEX CLOSES AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2004
  • Mizuho, Mitsubishi UFJ to Finance $1.6 Billion Oman Project
  • Saudi Shiites Protest in Eastern City of Qatif After Man Killed
  • Dubai Shares Fall to Seven-Year Low on U.S., Europe Growth Risk
  • ADCB May Offer Benchmark Bond in First-Half of 2012, CFO Says
  • Abu Dhabi Taqa Offers to Buy Back Bonds, Will Meet Investors
  • Doha Bank Plans to Sell Bond in First Quarter, Deputy CFO Says
  • Dubai’s Stocks Fall to Lowest Level in More than Seven Years
  • Dubai’s Al Wasl Brokerage May Shut as Stocks Slump to 2004 Low
  • Saudi Aramco Turns to Gas, Petrochemicals as Oil Demand Wanes
  • Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank Said to Sell $500 Million Five-Year Bond
  • Iraq Oil Minister Expects Output Cut at Next OPEC Meeting
  • N.Y. Man Faces Terror Charges After FBI Said to Decline Case
  • Genel, Biggest Kurdistan Oil Producer, Falls in London Debutukuk

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - me

The Hedgeye Macro Team

Howard Penney

Managing Director