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No change to November forecast of HK$21-22 billion

As expected, average daily table revenues slowed considerably this past week to HK$664 million from HK$715 million the first 2 weeks of November.  Again, the motorcycle Grand Prix race is usually a VIP business killer and last week was no exception.  We didn’t see a big migration over to Cotai as we expected due to the congestion on the peninsula, however, although it could’ve been masked by low hold on Cotai.  Since the slowdown was anticipated, there is no change to our HK$21-22 billion (+25-31% YoY) GGR projection for the full month of November.

In terms of market share, both Wynn and MPEL improved from low hold in the first two weeks but still below recent trend.  SJM remains well above trend due to high hold.  LVS share actually fell slightly sequentially from last week but remains above trend.  Given the enhanced junket commission and credit structure especially with Neptune in place as of November 1st, we would expect continued share increases for LVS.