TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 18, 2011


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 27 points or -0.34% downside to 1212 and 1.88% upside to 1239. 






THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector performance


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance




  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -1878 (-1594) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1024.67 (+11.5%)
  • VIX:  +34.51 +2.9% YTD PERFORMANCE: +94.42%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.11 from 2.54 (-17%)



  • TED SPREAD: 47.94
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.00%
  • 10-Year: 2.02 from 1.96    
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.74 from 1.70


MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:15am: Fed’s Dudley speaks on economy in Albany, NY
  • 10am: Leading indicators, est. 0.6% (prior 0.2%)
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
  • 1:15pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks on economy in Dallas
  • 1:50pm: Fed’s Williams speaks in Chile



  • U.S. economy may end 2011 expanding at fastest pace in 18 months as analysts raise 4Q forecasts
  • Bill Gross said Europe poses the biggest risk to the U.S. economy; Laurence Fink said Germany is playing a “dangerous” game letting markets push debt-laden European nations to fiscal discipline
  • ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank should remain focused on price stability, pressed govts. to act on promises to end the sovereign debt crisis
  • Hewlett-Packard added shareholder Ralph Whitworth to its board
  • Ex-Olympus President Michael Woodford said to face questions from SEC
  • Zoellick Says Europe may get support from China, U.S. via IMF
  • MF Global said to have moved hundreds of millions of dollars from its client accounts to its own securities brokerage before its Oct. 31 bankruptcy
  • Miramax said to plan $142m dividend with refinancing bid
  • Luxor Capital Group poised to gain control of William Lyon Homes after builder filed a plan with regulators for a prepackaged bankruptcy
  • FDA decision due on Regeneron’s BLA for Eylea (VEGF Trap- Eye) in wet AMD
  • U.S. Congress votes to raise FHA mortgage limits to $729,750, Obama expected to sign into law today



  • Commodity ETF Assets May Triple in Asia, S&P’s Steadman Says
  • Copper Heads for Third Weekly Drop on European Crisis Concern
  • Oil Recovers as Euro Rebound Sparks Optimism for Crisis Solution
  • Copper Traders Most Bearish in Two Months on Europe: Commodities
  • Soybeans Rally From Five-Week Low After China Boosts Purchases
  • Gold May Gain in London as Europe Debt Woes Spur Investor Demand
  • Cocoa Falls as Ivorian Port Deliveries Rise; White Sugar Slides
  • China Buys 1 Mln Tons Cotton to Boost Reserves, Cottonchina Says
  • Molycorp Says Rare Earth Price Plunge May Crimp New Mine Funding
  • Olam Wresting Rival Noble’s Stock Premium on Risk Management
  • Biggest Gazprom Bond in Two Years Breaks Drought: Russia Credit
  • China Power Firms Face Worst Margins Since ‘06: Chart of the Day
  • Kate’s Sapphire Gives Royal Boost to Sri Lanka as Exports Jump
  • COMMODITIES DAYBOOK: Oil Climbs as Euro Rebound Sparks Optimism
  • BHP Cuts Costs With First Bond Sale Since ‘09: Australia Credit
  • Pemex Seeking to Revive Fixed-Rate Bond Offering: Mexico Credit

GOLD – bouncing right off its immediate-term TRADE line of support of $1722 this morning and KM likes that because we bought more GLD yesterday taking the position to 9% in the asset allocation model. Refreshed range = 1.


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view





THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view





DEAD CATS – across Europe, from the Euro itself (immediate-term TRADE oversold yest) to French and German Equities, they’re bouncing them right from where they should have. New ranges for the Euro, CAC, and DAX = 1.33-1.36, 3003-3146, and 5. Manage your risk proactively around those ranges w/ a bearish bias.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance




HANG SENG – crashing. Period. Down another -1.7% overnight, down -7.6% since OCT28, and down -24.2% from 2011 peak. Within that nasty Singapore report yesterday (down -16.2% y/y OCT), Electronics exports were down -31.2%! Apple? We don’t know. But we’re staying short Hong Kong and Asia’s Growth Slowing.


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance








The Hedgeye Macro Team

Howard Penney

Managing Director




Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more