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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 18, 2011

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 27 points or -0.34% downside to 1212 and 1.88% upside to 1239. 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 1118

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector performance

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -1878 (-1594) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1024.67 (+11.5%)
  • VIX:  +34.51 +2.9% YTD PERFORMANCE: +94.42%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.11 from 2.54 (-17%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 47.94
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.00%
  • 10-Year: 2.02 from 1.96    
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.74 from 1.70

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:15am: Fed’s Dudley speaks on economy in Albany, NY
  • 10am: Leading indicators, est. 0.6% (prior 0.2%)
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count
  • 1:15pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks on economy in Dallas
  • 1:50pm: Fed’s Williams speaks in Chile

 

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • U.S. economy may end 2011 expanding at fastest pace in 18 months as analysts raise 4Q forecasts
  • Bill Gross said Europe poses the biggest risk to the U.S. economy; Laurence Fink said Germany is playing a “dangerous” game letting markets push debt-laden European nations to fiscal discipline
  • ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank should remain focused on price stability, pressed govts. to act on promises to end the sovereign debt crisis
  • Hewlett-Packard added shareholder Ralph Whitworth to its board
  • Ex-Olympus President Michael Woodford said to face questions from SEC
  • Zoellick Says Europe may get support from China, U.S. via IMF
  • MF Global said to have moved hundreds of millions of dollars from its client accounts to its own securities brokerage before its Oct. 31 bankruptcy
  • Miramax said to plan $142m dividend with refinancing bid
  • Luxor Capital Group poised to gain control of William Lyon Homes after builder filed a plan with regulators for a prepackaged bankruptcy
  • FDA decision due on Regeneron’s BLA for Eylea (VEGF Trap- Eye) in wet AMD
  • U.S. Congress votes to raise FHA mortgage limits to $729,750, Obama expected to sign into law today

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATIONS (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Commodity ETF Assets May Triple in Asia, S&P’s Steadman Says
  • Copper Heads for Third Weekly Drop on European Crisis Concern
  • Oil Recovers as Euro Rebound Sparks Optimism for Crisis Solution
  • Copper Traders Most Bearish in Two Months on Europe: Commodities
  • Soybeans Rally From Five-Week Low After China Boosts Purchases
  • Gold May Gain in London as Europe Debt Woes Spur Investor Demand
  • Cocoa Falls as Ivorian Port Deliveries Rise; White Sugar Slides
  • China Buys 1 Mln Tons Cotton to Boost Reserves, Cottonchina Says
  • Molycorp Says Rare Earth Price Plunge May Crimp New Mine Funding
  • Olam Wresting Rival Noble’s Stock Premium on Risk Management
  • Biggest Gazprom Bond in Two Years Breaks Drought: Russia Credit
  • China Power Firms Face Worst Margins Since ‘06: Chart of the Day
  • Kate’s Sapphire Gives Royal Boost to Sri Lanka as Exports Jump
  • COMMODITIES DAYBOOK: Oil Climbs as Euro Rebound Sparks Optimism
  • BHP Cuts Costs With First Bond Sale Since ‘09: Australia Credit
  • Pemex Seeking to Revive Fixed-Rate Bond Offering: Mexico Credit

GOLD – bouncing right off its immediate-term TRADE line of support of $1722 this morning and KM likes that because we bought more GLD yesterday taking the position to 9% in the asset allocation model. Refreshed range = 1.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS

DEAD CATS – across Europe, from the Euro itself (immediate-term TRADE oversold yest) to French and German Equities, they’re bouncing them right from where they should have. New ranges for the Euro, CAC, and DAX = 1.33-1.36, 3003-3146, and 5. Manage your risk proactively around those ranges w/ a bearish bias.


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

 

ASIAN MARKETS


HANG SENG – crashing. Period. Down another -1.7% overnight, down -7.6% since OCT28, and down -24.2% from 2011 peak. Within that nasty Singapore report yesterday (down -16.2% y/y OCT), Electronics exports were down -31.2%! Apple? We don’t know. But we’re staying short Hong Kong and Asia’s Growth Slowing.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

The Hedgeye Macro Team

Howard Penney

Managing Director