JOBLESS CLAIMS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE; STARTS & PERMITS RISE OFF OF DOWNWARDLY-REVISED SEPTEMBER DATA

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Single-Family Housing Starts Rise 3.9%; Multifamily Continues Higher

Single-family housing starts rose in October, climbing 3.9% to 434k.  September data was revised down to 414k from 427k.  Single-family permits rose 5.1% to 430k. On a long-term basis, single-family activity remains very low.  The modest improvement in starts and permits is a positive sign for new homes, reported later this month.  

 

We had cautioned that excitement around the NAHB Housing Market Index print was misguided, as it often doesn't accurately forecast an increase in starts.  October starts did not change this conclusion.  

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE; STARTS & PERMITS RISE OFF OF DOWNWARDLY-REVISED SEPTEMBER DATA - single family

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE; STARTS & PERMITS RISE OFF OF DOWNWARDLY-REVISED SEPTEMBER DATA - multifamily

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE; STARTS & PERMITS RISE OFF OF DOWNWARDLY-REVISED SEPTEMBER DATA - single family LT

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE; STARTS & PERMITS RISE OFF OF DOWNWARDLY-REVISED SEPTEMBER DATA - contrary

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE; STARTS & PERMITS RISE OFF OF DOWNWARDLY-REVISED SEPTEMBER DATA - HMI and starts

 

Initial Claims Drop 2k to 388k

Initial claims fell 2k last week to 388k (-5k from the upwardly-revised 393k).  We have been looking for claims between 375-400k as the level that allows unemployment to improve, and an extended stay in this range will be a positive signal.  Rolling claims fell 4k to 397k.  

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE; STARTS & PERMITS RISE OFF OF DOWNWARDLY-REVISED SEPTEMBER DATA - Rolling

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE; STARTS & PERMITS RISE OFF OF DOWNWARDLY-REVISED SEPTEMBER DATA - Raw

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE; STARTS & PERMITS RISE OFF OF DOWNWARDLY-REVISED SEPTEMBER DATA - NSA chart

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE; STARTS & PERMITS RISE OFF OF DOWNWARDLY-REVISED SEPTEMBER DATA - Fed and Claims

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE; STARTS & PERMITS RISE OFF OF DOWNWARDLY-REVISED SEPTEMBER DATA - S P 07 10

 

2-10 Spread Indicates Ongoing Margin Pressure

The 2-10 spread widened 1 bps versus last week to 175 bps.  The ten-year bond yield increased 4 bps to 200 bps.

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE; STARTS & PERMITS RISE OFF OF DOWNWARDLY-REVISED SEPTEMBER DATA - 2 10 spread 1

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE; STARTS & PERMITS RISE OFF OF DOWNWARDLY-REVISED SEPTEMBER DATA - 2 10 spread QoQ 1

 

 

Financial Subsector Performance

The table below shows the stock performance of each Financial subsector over four durations. 


JOBLESS CLAIMS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE; STARTS & PERMITS RISE OFF OF DOWNWARDLY-REVISED SEPTEMBER DATA - Subsector Performance

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Allison Kaptur

 

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