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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 17, 2011

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 28 points or -1.04% downside to 1224 and 1.22% upside to 1252. 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 1117

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -1594 (+795) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 918.72 (+17.7%)
  • VIX:  +33.51 +7.3% YTD PERFORMANCE: +88.79%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.54 from 1.51 (+68%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

TREASURIES – KM is long both the Long-bond (TLT) and Growth Slowing (Treasury Flattener, FLAT) and have been using an immediate-term TRADE target on 10yr yields of 1.98% - we’re there this morning, so the gross exposure call now is to sell some Treasuries and start allocating assets to US Equities. Take your time.

  • TED SPREAD: 46.60
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.00%
  • 10-Year: 2.00 from 2.00    
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.75 from 1.76

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Jobless claims, est. 395k (prior 390k)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, est. -50.4 (prior -51.6)
  • 10am: Philadelphia Fed, est. 9.0 (prior 8.7)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural gas storage change
  • 12:30pm: Fed’s Pianalto speaks on economy in Kentucky
  • 12:50pm: Fed’s Dudley speaks on economy at West Point
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $11b 10-yr TIP reopening
  • TBA: Mortgage Delinquencies (prior 8.44%)

 

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • Spain sold 3.56b euros of 10-yr bonds with avg yield of almost 7%, the most since the euro’s creation
  • Builders probably began work on fewer homes in Oct; median est. starts fell 7.3% to 610k annual rate
  • Energy Secretary Steven Chu said final decisions on Solyndra were mine”; Chu to testify before House panel this morning
  • American Airlines pilot talks may recess for 2 wks with sides “far apart”
  • Northern Rock agreed to be sold to Virgin Money Holdings for $1.2b
  • AT&T’s Glenn Lurie says co. in talks to start selling Nokia’s WP smartphones next year
  • Guggenheim Partners said to seek buyers for Claymore Investments
  • MF Global subpoenas said to be issued by Chicago U.S. Attorney
  • Gartner sees inventory correction in semiconductor industry to damp sales at least thru 2011
  • House Democratic group urging Congress to overhaul the tax code by lowering corporate rates, removing breaks and easing the burden on U.S. companies’ overseas operations
  • Obama said cutting the U.S. budget won’t reduce the nation’s military and economic commitments to the Asia-Pacific region
  • Olympus pledges $3.3b debt cut, will report earnings by Dec. 14

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Candy-to-Fuel Demand Cuts Oil Inventory to ‘75 Low: Commodities
  • Gold Demand Rose 6% in Third Quarter on European Debt Crisis
  • Oil Falls From Five-Month High on Signs Europe Crisis Spreading
  • Gold Imports by India Drop 20% as Record Prices Deter Buyers
  • Buffett’s Burlington Exploits Boxed Asia Grain Up 29%: Freight
  • Copper Declines Most in a Week as European Crisis May Spread
  • Gold Falls in New York, London as Equities Drop May Spur Sales
  • Wheat Falls for Second Day as Syria Rejects Tender on Prices
  • Sugar Falls to Seven-Week Low on Indian Exports; Cocoa Slides
  • Gold Top Pick at Morgan Stanley as Europe Debt Spurs Demand
  • Soybean Imports by Japan May Drop 11%, Ministry Says
  • Severstal CEO Mordashov Says Company Deserved U.S. Vehicle Loan
  • Orange Juice May Climb on ‘Cup and Handle’: Technical Analysis
  • U.S. Crude Discount Versus Brent May End Soon: Chart of the Day
  • COMMODITIES DAYBOOK: Candy-to-Fuel Demand Cuts Oil Inventories
  • China’s Gold Jewelry Demand Gains 13% to Make It World’s Largest
  • Japan Restricts Some Rice Shipments After Radiation Found

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS

SPAIN – their bond auction was a mess (3.6B of 10yr fiat at 6.97%) and now both Spanish and French Equities are moving to immediate-term TRADE oversold alongside the Euro. That Goldman call to buy the Euro last week is now officially the worst FX call on Old Wall St of the year; 1.34 last.


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

 

ASIAN MARKETS

ASIA – we’ve been the 2011 Bear on Growth Slowing and now the high-frequency data is slowing even faster than we thought; I haven’t seen the legacy media lead w/ this yet and I don’t expect them to, but Singapore just printed a DOWN -16.2% y/y export # for OCT vs what was already startling at -4.6% in SEP. Indian stocks joined HK in crash mode overnight.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

The Hedgeye Macro Team

Howard Penney

Managing Director