TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 16, 2011
Santa Claus is coming and we are sure all of this is going to end according to the central plan…
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 32 points or -1.65% downside to 1237 and 0.89% upside to 1269.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: +795 (+2380)
- VOLUME: NYSE 781.03 (+10.0%)
- VIX: +31.22 flat YTD PERFORMANCE: +75.89%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.59 from 1.20 (+32.56%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: 45.54
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.01%
- 10-Year: 2.06 from 2.04
- YIELD CURVE: 1.80 from 1.80
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7am: MBA Mortgage, (prior 10.3%)
- 8:30am: CPI, est. M/m 0% (prior 0.3%)
- 9am: Net long-term TIC flows, est. $50b (prior $57.9b)
- 9:15am: Industrial production, est. 0.4% (prior 0.2%)
- 9:15am: Capacity, est. 77.6%, prior 77.4%
- 10am: NAHB housing, est. 18 (prior 18)
- 10:30am: DOE inventories
- 11:15am: Fed’s Lacker speaks on credit allocation in Washington
- 12:45am: Fed’s Rosengren speaks on economy in Boston
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Bank of America CEO Bryan Moynihan to tell board company is on right course – WSJ
- Four NBA players sue league, its teams in federal court in Minneapolis - Minneapolis St. Paul Business Journal
- Citigroup said to consider cutting as many as 3k jobs
- John Paulson said to cut risk in his hedge funds further amid European debt crisi
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
COPPER – apparently Santa didn’t find his way to Asian Copper demand overnight either. Copper down -1% at 3.48/lb is just one more reminder of what it and US Treasury yields continue to remind us. Growth Slowing remains the issue, globally, that just won’t go away (especially with $100 oil).
- Sino-Forest Faces ‘Herculean’ Task After Ponzi Scheme Denial
- Sino-Forest Bonds Signal Timber Inflated by 100%: Canada Credit
- Nationalism Tops Crisis as Key Risk to Mine Supply: Commodities
- Maersk Poised to Benefit as Overcapacity Hits Rivals: Freight
- Oil Drops From Three-Month High on U.S. Stockpiles, Europe Debt
- Shale Oil Saps African Crude as Libya Returns: Energy Markets
- Japan Buys 800,000 Tons Corn From Ukraine as U.S. Substitute
- Copper Drops on Concern Europe May Fail to Contain Debt Crisis
- Cotton Harvest in Australia May Jump 25% to Record on Area
- Spring-Wheat Premium Widening Over Winter Crop: Chart of the Day
- China Said to Buy 600,000 Tons of U.S. Soy to Boost Reserves
- Galena Plans to Boost Staff 35% Next Year as Commodities Expand
- Thailand to Buy 100,000 Tons of Rubber Stocks to Lift Price
- Palm Oil Jumps to Five-Month High as Weather Threatens Supplies
- Wheat Drops as Rain in Argentina, U.S. May Aid Crop Development
- Sino-Forest Says Probe Refutes Muddy Waters Allegations
- Gold Climbs for Second Session in Three as Investor Demand Gains
- China Rare Earth Export Quota May Not Be Fully Used, News Says
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
FRANCE – we covered our short position in French Equities yesterday because they were immediate-term TRADE oversold – managing risk around a refreshed 3037-3176 range in the CAC (which remains in a Bearish Formation) as does the Euro which is looking worse by the hour as our 1.37 TRADE line resist confirms.
ASIAN MARKETS
CHINA – only problem w/ that fear (and it is a fear institutional investors are scared to miss) is that Asia isn’t getting the memo. China (down -2.5% overnight) and Hong Kong (we re-shorted EWH yesterday) down a stiff -2% taking the Hang Seng back into crash mode (-22% from YTD peak) as India continues lower as well.
MIDDLE EAST
POPULAR MIDDLE EAST HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG
- Qatar Air Says ‘Belt Up’ as Middle East Carriers Pull In Orders
- Airbus Draws With Boeing at Dubai Show Dominated by 777, Tirades
- Bank of America Said to Cut Dubai Sales, Trading Team by 40%
- Arab Project Finance Goes Local on Europe Debt Woes: Arab Credit
- Indonesia Sale Supports Investment-Grade Rating: Islamic Finance
- Obama Microphone Slip Shows Scary Israel Rift: Jeffrey Goldberg
- ADCB Said to Sell Sukuk at 275-287.5 Basis Points Over Midswap
- Oman Central Bank Plans to Sell $390 Million of Five-Year Bonds
- Gas Exporters Seek ‘High’ Prices as They Cooperate on Supply
- BBK Makes Exchange Offer to Holders of $152.4 Million of Notes
- Australia, Iran, Iraq Advance in Asia 2014 World Cup Qualifying
- Qatar May Buy Stake in Greece’s Ellaktor, Euro2day.gr Reports
- Genel Energy Targets DNO to Boost Kurdish Oil Foothold
- Schoeller Says Libya Oil Recovery May Match 5-Year Iraq Wait
- Oil Tankers Loading in Persian Gulf at Lowest Since June
- Qatargas Providing Extra 9 Million Tons of LNG to Japan
- Qatar Seeks Stakes in Russia’s Novatek, Yamal LNG Project
- Rio Seeks to Boost Aluminum Production in Oman: Company Link
- Qatar Air CEO Makes Up With Airbus After Lashing Planemaker
The Hedgeye Macro Team
Howard Penney
Managing Director
