THE HBM: SBUX, MCD, COSI, WEN, BOBE

THE HEDGEYE BREAKFAST MONITOR

 

MACRO NOTES

 

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence comes out today at 09:55 a.m.  We’ll be watching for any indication of a further slump in confidence although, at least for the restaurant space, confidence hasn’t seemed to matter lately although it may begin to matter if it slumps much lower.

 

THE HBM: SBUX, MCD, COSI, WEN, BOBE - umich survey vs actual

 

 

SUBSECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HBM: SBUX, MCD, COSI, WEN, BOBE - subsector fbr

 

 

QUICK SERVICE

 

SBUX: Starbucks announced the acquisition of juice company Evolution Fresh for $30 million in cash.  The company hopes that the purchase will help Starbucks gain a foothold in the estimated $50 billion health food market.  We believe that the company's strategy is to capture the upside in profits by owning these small brands in tangent categories.  Starbucks' distribution channel provides a clear runway for these brands to grow rapidly.

 

SBUX: Starbucks is targeting 20% of customers in Malaysia to use the newly-launched pre-loaded Starbucks card.  A spokesman for the company said that the card is a stored value card that offered customers convenience when purchasing merchandise at any Starbucks store nationwide.

 

MCD: McDonald’s is looking to capitalize on the depressed commercial property market and purchase more of the land and buildings where it operates, according to management commentary during an investor conference yesterday. 

 

COSI: Cosi issued a letter to Brad Blum yesterday saying it would welcome his offer to lead the company for $1 if it were “sincere”.

 

WEN: Wendy’s was maintained “Overweight” at Barclays.

 

 

CASUAL DINING

 

BOBE: Bob Evans Farms was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Stephens.

 

THE HBM: SBUX, MCD, COSI, WEN, BOBE - stocks 1111

 

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more