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Initial Claims
The headline initial claims number fell 7k WoW to 390k (down 10k after a 3k upward revision to last week’s data). Rolling claims fell 5.25k to 400k. On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, reported claims rose 29k WoW.
There may be a degree of seasonality at work here, as both 2009 and 2010 saw a gradual decline into year-end before claims stagnated again in the early part of the following year.
We’ve previously identified 375k – 400k as the claims range where unemployment can begin to improve. This is the second week that claims have printed below 400k. A sustained period at this level would be meaningful for unemployment.
2-10 Spread
The 2-10 spread tightened 1 bp versus last week to 174 bps as of yesterday. The ten-year bond yield decreased 2 bps to 197 bps.
Financial Subsector Performance
The table below shows the stock performance of each Financial subsector over four durations.
Joshua Steiner, CFA
Allison Kaptur
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