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JOSHUA STEINER: A SEASONAL PATTERN IN CLAIMS?

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Initial Claims

The headline initial claims number fell 7k WoW to 390k (down 10k after a 3k upward revision to last week’s data).  Rolling claims fell 5.25k to 400k. On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, reported claims rose 29k WoW.

There may be a degree of seasonality at work here, as both 2009 and 2010 saw a gradual decline into year-end before claims stagnated again in the early part of the following year.  

We’ve previously identified 375k – 400k as the claims range where unemployment can begin to improve. This is the second week that claims have printed below 400k. A sustained period at this level would be meaningful for unemployment. 

JOSHUA STEINER: A SEASONAL PATTERN IN CLAIMS? - Rolling

JOSHUA STEINER: A SEASONAL PATTERN IN CLAIMS? - Raw

JOSHUA STEINER: A SEASONAL PATTERN IN CLAIMS? - NSA chart

JOSHUA STEINER: A SEASONAL PATTERN IN CLAIMS? - s p 07 10

 

JOSHUA STEINER: A SEASONAL PATTERN IN CLAIMS? - Fed and Claims

 

2-10 Spread

The 2-10 spread tightened 1 bp versus last week to 174 bps as of yesterday.  The ten-year bond yield decreased 2 bps to 197 bps. 

JOSHUA STEINER: A SEASONAL PATTERN IN CLAIMS? - 2 10 SPREAD

JOSHUA STEINER: A SEASONAL PATTERN IN CLAIMS? - 2 10 QoQ

Financial Subsector Performance

The table below shows the stock performance of each Financial subsector over four durations. 

JOSHUA STEINER: A SEASONAL PATTERN IN CLAIMS? - Subsector performance

Joshua Steiner, CFA

Allison Kaptur

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