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So analysts raise their estimates into the quarter due to high hold and then claim that normalized EBITDA missed their estimate?

"I am delighted to announce another quarter of record Adjusted EBITDA and net income for our Company, representing the ninth consecutive quarter of sequential improvement in hold-adjusted EBITDA. These results build on the significant achievements delivered through the first half of 2011 and demonstrate our ability to deliver sustained high-quality results, with strong company-wide performance across all segments, despite the introduction of additional supply in the market."

Mr. Lawrence Ho, Co-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Melco Crown Entertainment

CONF CALL NOTES

  • Focused on maximizing the yields of all their gaming and non-gaming amenities
  • The market in Macau remains resilient and visitation remains strong.  Visitation from China is up 39%.  They are particularly bullish on the mass market growth in Macau.
  • Believe that the higher Mass win rate range of 23-26% is sustainable due to a number of initiatives
  • $195MM of EBITDA if they held at 2.85%
  • Increased amortization of land use rights from MSC from $5MM to $11MM
  • 4Q11 non-operating guidance:
    • D&A: $90-95MM
    • Corporate: $18-20MM
    • Net interest expense: $30MM

Q&A

  • They haven't seen any slowdown.  November is seasonally slower so there is nothing unusual there.
  • China tightening - doesn't see any correlation so far between the policy and the market in Macau
  • Still see Mass growth exceeding the growth in visitation
  • Capex outside of MSC: $75-100MM for 2012
  • Confident that MPEL will be an early mover on the construction front for the next new project in Macau.  They are just restarting construction, not starting construction.
  • Table cap: 3% increase in tables per year after 2013.  The government understands that in order for new projects to work, they must have adequate table allocation.
  • Why is their win per table at Mass so much higher than Venetian?
    • They continue to focus on premium mass and high end mass gaming as part of their optimization strategy. 
  • They aren't seeing any traffic pattern or any collection issues on the VIP side
  • They feel like they can finance MSC at the project level and fund their portion through cash on the balance sheet and debt capacity
  • In July, they added a big junket - Neptune to CoD.  They should see a nice ramp as a result over the quarter and year  

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE RELEASE

  • Net revenue of $1,056 and Adjusted EBITDA of $240.3MM
    • CoD net revenue of $687MM and adjusted EBITDA of $170.5MM
    • Altira net revenue of $329MM and adjusted EBITDA of $79MM
  • "Our Studio City project continues to move closer towards realization. We are nearing the final stages of our design plans, while working closely with the Macau Government to complete the necessary approval process. We also continue to evaluate financing plans in relation to this project, including a bank loan and other debt financing." 
  • "In relation to our previously announced proposed dual-listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange, we continue to work through the necessary steps with the relevant Hong Kong regulators, while at the same time monitoring the market conditions to ensure we maintain full flexibility as it relates to our capital structure."
  • Cash: $1,450.5MM (including US$360MM of restricted cash)
  • Debt: $2.4BN 
  • Capital expenditures: $22.6MM, "of which US$8.1 million related to design and preliminary costs associated with Studio City, US$4.9 million for the development of the new Mocha site, with the remainder predominantly attributable to various projects at City of Dreams."