URA, the Global X Uranium ETF which invests in a basket of companies involved in Uranium mining and producing nuclear components, has emerged as a standout position in Hedgeye’s portfolio. Since being added to ETF Pro Plus on May 20, 2025, URA has soared from $28.01 to $36.33, delivering an impressive +30.2% return in less than a month.
This surge highlights the power of Hedgeye’s data-driven investing process—combining Macro, quantitative, and fundamental analysis with an emphasis on timing.
MACRO SETUP: QUAD 2 TAILWINDS
The setup for URA flipped decisively in May, when Hedgeye's Macro forecasting model flipped from Quad 4 (disinflation/slowdown) to Quad 2 (accelerating growth + inflation).
Here's why that matters for URA:
- Both commodities and energy stocks have historically underperformed in Quad 4.
- The stocks held in the URA ETF are exposed to both of these Quad 4 risks.
- The shift to Quad 2 provided tailwinds for URA, as commodities prices like Uranium tend to rise in Quad 2, benefitting the ETF as a whole.
Regardless of how favorable the Macro setup appears, our CEO Keith McCullough runs one more risk management test before recommending any stock or ETF: Risk Range™ Signals.
QUANTITATIVE SIGNALS: BULLISH TREND
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“Silver and Uranium act as high-beta reflation plays that historically rip in Quad 2 squeezes; both remain bullish TREND.” —Keith McCullough, ETF Pro Plus, June 2025 Edition |
Hedgeye’s Risk Range™ Signals—based on price, volume, and volatility trends—highlight actionable buy and sell levels across durations. This is not a charting tool; it’s a real-time quantitative system for managing position sizing and timing.
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URA flashed a bullish TREND signal on May 20, 2025 at a closing price of $28.01. That's when Keith added it to ETF Pro Plus.
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By June 10th, URA was signaling TRADE #overbought, prompting a tactical “sell-SOME” call, not because the trend was broken—but because the short-term move was stretched.
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Importantly, the bullish TREND remains intact.
The key point: this signal isn’t about guessing uranium prices—it’s about making high-probability trades with discipline. URA passed the quantitative test and still does.
FUNDAMENTALLY APPROVED
While URA is an ETF—not a single stock—its fundamentals reflect the global demand for nuclear energy and the pivotal role uranium plays in fueling next-gen clean energy systems.
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The ETF tracks global uranium miners, benefiting from rising uranium spot prices and geopolitical pressures to secure domestic energy sources.
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Major holdings include names like Cameco (CCJ) and Kazatomprom, whose production capacity is becoming increasingly valuable as nations accelerate plans for nuclear buildouts.
As energy policy shifts and clean energy mandates intensify, uranium miners are experiencing a re-rating—moving from cyclical to structural growth narratives. URA captures this tailwind across a diversified, global basket.
BOTTOM LINE
URA is not just riding a macro wave—it’s a high-conviction, data-backed expression of Hedgeye’s Quad 2 playbook. Our Long URA position is a perfect example of the Hedgeye process at work.
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