Hedgeye Macro analyst Josh Steiner dug into the U.S. macroeconomic data on Tuesday's edition of The Call @ Hedgeye, noting that our models for U.S. GDP in Q2 have been revised down slightly.
“We went from expecting year-over-year growth of 1.81% to 1.74%,” Steiner said, “which took our sequential SAAR growth down by about 30 basis points—from 2.02% to 1.71%.”
But importantly, Steiner called out something that Hedgeye is NOT forecasting: a recession.
"In terms of incremental data points we measure, there are 16 points. And interestingly, 16 of 16 all worsened on a rate-of-change basis in May," Steiner says.
“That data weakened a little bit on the margin. Our numbers are still very non-recessionary.”
Looking ahead, “we do have, on the radar, our monthly July Quad four expectations. So obviously keeping everything on a tight leash in that respect,” Steiner noted.
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