Markets can’t hide from the signals embedded in interest rates.
In this clip from The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough unpacks critical signals across the curve—each pointing to the same conclusion: the U.S. economy is accelerating. There’s no recession in sight.
"We positioned for Quad 4 from February all the way to April. The Street started talking about a U.S. recession pending, which we did not," McCullough says. "Instead of entering a recession...credit risk continued to go down."
That’s the key. While headlines warned of a slowdown, rates told a different story of acceleration, not recession. The yield curve steepened, credit spreads tightened—clear signals of a shifting market structure aligned with a strengthening economy.
“We have a process to signal a recession…that is not it,” McCullough explains. “Paying attention to interest rates not only across the curve, inside of the shape of the curve—we’re long a steepener. I was adding to that on Friday too."
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