Let’s get after it. The Macro setup is moving fast, and we’re staying one step ahead. As we kick off the week, here are the Top 3 Things that matter most for positioning right now:
1. RATES – Recession Talk Is Wrong (Again)
If the U.S. economy were truly slowing down, bond yields wouldn’t be breaking higher. But last week, we saw the opposite:
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Yields bounced off the low end of our Risk Range™ last week
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Both 10-Year and 30-Year TRENDs remain Bullish
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The MOVE Index (bond market volatility) dropped 500bps on Friday alone
Translation: The "Recession Risk" narrative is stale. This is a classic #Quad2 Reacceleration.
What's Quad2? It's when inflation and economic growth are accelerating.
2. COMMODITIES – Reflation Roars Back
Our Top 3 #Quad2 commodity plays—Bitcoin, Silver, and Uranium—have already crushed the broader index. But now the entire CRB Index (a broad basket of commodities) is catching up:
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CRB Index: +3.6% last week
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WTI Oil: +6.2% w/w, back above our TREND line of $64.28
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Silver: +9.4% last week — hitting 13-year highs
3. MACRO MOVES IN ACTION – Our Shift to High Beta Is Paying Off
Let's break down Beta real quick:
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Beta = 1.0 → stock moves in line with the market
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Beta > 1.0 → stock moves more than the market
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Beta < 1.0 → stock moves less than the market (like utilities or staples)
In #Quad2, high Beta stocks tend to outperform. That's what the chart above shows:
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NASDAQ (QQQ): Took off after April lows
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Consumer Staples (XLP): Flatlined
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“It’s a good thing my Signal to Quad lens had me sell all my Low Beta Consumer Staples (XLP), which was down -1.4% last week, and added UFOs and Quantum Computing (QTUM),” said Keith in this morning’s Early Look. |
This is Hedgeye’s #QuadShift in action—from playing defense with Low Beta to getting #PAID with High Beta growth.
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