TRADE VS TREND

Keith - BKC - short with impunity anywhere close to 24

Howard – BKC - The industry is still a zero sum game - WEN new value promotion is driving incremental traffic and MCD dollar menu is winning too. BKC’s trends suggest they are losing markets share in the US.

Keith - GMCR - short with impunity anywhere north of $33

Howard – GMCR - I don’t buy into the new coffee revolution and the P&L looks fragile…..

Keith - EAT buy at 7.08

Howard – EAT - Down 27% over the past 30 days! Of the 45 names that Malcolm Knapp tracks only one concept had sales trends better than Chili’s in the month of October.

Keith - MCD - short at 58.26, the monopoly game is ending here.

Howard – MCD - My concern is more about 2009. The MCD coffee program is challenged and looks like it will not provide the lift the company needs to drive incremental traffic in 2009. The reallocation of advertising money toward coffee will slow overall trends.

Keith - SBUX - I buy at 8.48; very negative divergence today

Howard – SBUX - It will take time to repair the damage done to this stock. One of the biggest negatives facing SBUX is that senior management is out of touch with the investment community.

Keith - DIN's big resistance line is 17.34

Howard – DIN - Yesterday DIN traded in a 30% range! In the early part of the 4th quarter nearly every casual dining stock has gotten crushed, but not DIN. Over the past month DIN is up 97%, while DRI is down 10% and EAT is down 27%. Of those three names only DIN has severe balance sheet issues! This market is insane!

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