Another wave of market data just reinforced the #Quad4 macro call. Both commodities and bond yields are now echoing the same bearish trend: lower lows and sustained weakness.
The CRB Commodities Index has dropped 7% since February. Crude oil? Down 25% since its January high, back when the market was still riding the illusion of a #Quad2 cycle.
This morning, China's latest PMI print slipped back into contraction territory at 49.0 — delivering yet another blow to global growth expectations.
“The art of the deal on China is to stay Net Short both China and commodities,” McCullough noted.
This isn’t a debate. It’s data. Markets are pricing in slowing growth and disinflation — and positioning accordingly.
Want to stay ahead of consensus? Subscribe to The Macro Show.
