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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - November 1, 2011

 

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 53 points or -3.14% downside to 1214 and 1.09% upside to 1267. 

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

From a TRADE and TREND perspective, today’s selloff didn’t do much to the Sector Studies. The only Sector to break its intermediate-term TREND line today was the one that’s most negatively correlated to a rising US Dollar – Basic Materials (XLB).

 

That’s the good news. The bad news is that 4 of 9 Sectors failed to succeed in recovering their long-term TAIL lines of support – Financials (down -15.4% YTD), Basic Materials (down -10.3% YTD), Industrials (down -4.3% YTD) and Energy (up +2.1% YTD). Again, these Sectors all have 1 thing in common – they do not like a rising US Dollar like most Americans do. The SP500’s long-term TAIL (1267) broke again today too.

 

The Hedgeye asset allocation has moved from 0% US Equities this summer to 9% currently and embraces the Bullish Formation (bullish on all 3 risk mgt durations – TRADE/TREND/TAIL) in Consumer Discretionary (XLY) which, in terms of upside from here, looks more attractive to me than Utilities (XLU). We like both, but XLY better; especially if Strong Dollar Deflates The Inflation (= bullish for US Consumption and economic growth in 2012).

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 111

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -1908 (-1851) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1143.02 (+13.27%)
  • VIX:  29.96 +22.14% YTD PERFORMANCE: +68.79%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 3.02 from 1.54 (+95.59%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

 

  • TED SPREAD: 42.94
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.01%
  • 10-Year: 2.17 from 2.34    
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.92 from 2.06

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly sales
  • 10am: Construction spending, est. 0.3%, prior 1.4%
  • 10am: ISM, est. 52.0, prior 51.6
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $35b 4-wk bills
  • 4:30pm: API inventories

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Greek’s PM Papandreou called referendum and parliamentary confidence vote, raising the prospect of derailing European bailout effort and pushing Greece into default.
  • Higher output from Honda and Toyota, combined with growing demand for full-size trucks by Ford, GM probably accelerated the SAAR to 13.2m vehicles.
  • Mario Draghi to succeed Jean-Claude Trichet as ECB President today
  • Congressional supercommittee meets on “Overview of Previous Debt Proposals,” 1pm
  • Senate is scheduled to resume consideration of amendments on spending bills

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

 

                                                                                                             

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

MOST POPULAR COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

 

  • China Mobile Skirts Apple to Add 5 Million IPhone Users: Tech
  • Gisele, Gwyneth, Demi Pose for Testino; Kapoor’s Scary Tunnel
  • Record Coal Premium Turning Into Bargain as Deals Sour: Real M&A
  • Esprit Drops as Europe Sales Slide on Weaker Demand
  • IPhone China Rival Focuses on Software for Half-Price Device
  • Sony Revamps TV Business After Seven Straight Annual Losses
  • Toshiba, Nippon Yusen Call for More Government Action on Yen
  • Mideast Dining Means Darden-Led U.S. Chains Follow Money: Retail
  • Amazon Boosts Cloud Computing Sales, Seizing on U.S. Budget Cuts
  • Indonesia’s October Consumer Prices: Summary (Table)
  • Colonel Sanders Devouring Little Sheep Means 69% Gain: Real M&A
  • United Breweries Falls in Mumbai After Quarterly Net Drops 11%
  • Thailand Oct. Consumer Prices Rise 4.19% From Yr Ago; Est. +4.5%
  • Drinking My Way Through 1,000 Belgian Craft Beers: John Mariani
  • Louis Vuitton Store, Offices in London Sold for $28 Million
  • *INDONESIA'S OCT. CONSUMER PRICES FALL 0.12% FROM MONTH AGO
  • Panasonic Forecasts Biggest Loss in Decade on Strong Yen, TV
  • Esprit First-Quarter Sales Rise 0.6% as European Demand Slows

 

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

 

 


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

Chinese authorities rhetorically signaled that it will be neither a source of “dumb money” for the EFSF, nor will it be pressured into easing too soon.

 

2007-08 Similarities Watch: Hong Kong Money Supply (M3) turned negative on a YoY basis in Sep like it die in 2Q08

Australia cuts key rate to 4.5% in first reduction since 2009.

 

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

 


THE M3: OCT GGR; SLOT PARLOURS

The Macau Metro Monitor, November 1, 2011

 

 

OCTOBER GROSS REVENUE FROM GAMES OF FORTUNE DSEC 

October GGR was MOP26.85BN (HK26.07BN, US 3.35BN), up 42.3% YoY.

 

SLOTS OUT OF RESIDENTIAL AREAS SOON Macau Business

Secretary Tam said the bylaw to ban slot-machine parlours from residential districts is “in the final stage of the legislative process”.  Once the bill is enacted, the government will negotiate a schedule with operators for the removal of parlours currently operating in such areas, added Tam.  The government is proposing to define an area within a radius of 300 to 500 meters from a casino as a “gaming zone”; anything outside of that will be considered a residential area.  The government will also not allow any more new parlours to be built in residential areas.  Parlours will only be allowed in casinos, hotels or commercial buildings.

 

When asked about SJM Holdings Ltd.’s Yat Yuen Canidrome Slot Lounge in Fai Chi Kei, Mr Tam said that the government would consider its removal if most residents deem it as a negative issue.

 



EAT: TRADE UPDATE

Brinker was bought in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio this afternoon.

 

Keith just bought Brinker in the Virtual Portfolio as the quantitative setup, per his model, is favorable at current levels.  The chart below illustrates our TRADE and TREND levels for the stock. 

 

From a fundamental perspective, as we wrote in our note titled “EAT – CAN THEY EXECUTE?” on 10/27, we believe that the company is operating well and will continue to improve going forward.  At Chili’s, the remodeling program, kitchen retrofits and other initiatives are going to boost sales and customer satisfaction.  As our note from last Thursday highlighted, we believe that the skepticism among the sell-side community is misguided and would not interpret this negative sentiment as being anything other than a positive for a buyer of the stock.  Please refer to our note from Thursday for further details or reply to this email for a copy.

 

This stock has been one of our favorite names for some time and is one of our top three long picks in the space.

 

EAT: TRADE UPDATE - eat levels 1031

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst


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JNY: Soak Up the Sun

For once, we’ve turned positive on JNY. On its path of value destruction, it’s likely to give the ultimate head-fake of $2.00 in earnings power. Even if JNY is holding a balloon underwater, people won’t care – until they have to. The stock should work in the interim.

 

Conclusion: I’ve turned positive on JNY. Let’s be clear – that’s JNY the stock, not Jones the company. On the path of value-destruction, JNY will likely do the wrong things to the P&L and balance sheet that could take up EPS to the $2+ range before reverting to something closer to a buck. I won’t be the guy who nails the negative TAIL call – which is clearer than ever --  but was too early in the research to avoid being steamrolled on a short by positive TREND and TRADE.

 

INVESTMENT SUMMARY

This is the strangest note I have ever written on JNY. I started writing it as a bear, and by the time I finished, I found out that I was really bullish. 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

I am utterly convinced that this company is destroying shareholder value. This is one of the names I’ve gotten right way more often than not over the years -- ALWAYS on the short side. This quarter’s results confirmed how fundamentally flawed JNY’s positioning is, at least to me, in many ways. I initially wrote my thoughts down in that regard.

 

But when I translated the path of value-destruction to our earnings model (as I always do) the numbers were just staring me in the face. I realized pretty quickly that before people realize that a clean ongoing EPS number is probably closer to a buck, the opacity behind GAAP reporting will give them a reason to once again believe that $2+ is doable. With the stock at $11, not only does that NOT make a good short case, but it makes a pretty good long one.

 

So…why is this the strangest note I’ve written on JNY? I’m not re-writing the initial part of my note despite my little ‘revelation’ later on. The reality is that the process whereby a perennial bear turned positive on the margin is probably more important to emphasize than the conclusion itself given that duration is so key to this stock.

 

So in advance, here’s a warning that this note is all over the place – but ends in the right spot nonetheless.

 

Bottom line. I like this name – for once. Keith’s levels will be critical, as a dip into the single digits could send it the way of LIZ (i.e. from $10 to $5 in a flash if JNY fails to deliver). We can’t take the risk off the table of price wars between JCP and anyone that competes with or sells into JCP. So yeah, that scares me. But if JNY prints $1.75 next year (with the consensus at $1.42) and there’s visibility into $2+ in 2013, will anyone really care that it’s coming from a ‘kick the can down the road’ strategy, and JNY will need to meet its maker and fess up to a $1-$1.25 EPS level? Heck no.

 

I won’t be the guy who nails the negative TAIL call – which is clearer than ever --  but was too early in the research to avoid being steamrolled on a short by positive TREND and TRADE.

 

HERE’S WHAT I WROTE TO MYSELF BEFORE SEEING WHERE THE STREET’S ESTIMATES SHOOK OUT…

There was nothing in this JNY print that caused us to change our view on the name. I keep getting the ‘but it’s so cheap’ argument. Those are the same people that are telling me that other names like Nike, Bed Bath, Ralph Lauren, and Under Armour are too expensive. I’ll never say that valuation doesn’t matter, but I will say that other things matter more – like showing that a given company is in control of driving its destiny, while others continue to get steamrolled by not having a proactive process to create value (and avoid mass destruction of value). In addition, with JNY, history shows us that valuation does not matter as much as earnings revisions.

 

To be clear, over the past ten years, JNY has eroded its profit base down from $605mm in EBIT to $198mm. That’s 67%. It’s enterprise value? Down 68%. Let’s say that the market has properly recognized management’s lack of success.

 

I think it was Cheryl Crow who said “It’s not having what you want. It’s wanting what you’ve got.”  I’m totally killing the spirit of her message by bringing it down to this level, but there are not a whole lot of examples in retail where this applies more.  

 

Simply put, the company buys things to mask attrition in previously acquired brands. That’s the model – its as simple as that. This chart tells us so much about JNY over the years. Organic growth is rare, and when they get it, they usually have to buy it on the Gross Margin line. EPS has been a volatile annuity of around $1.50.

 

JNY: Soak Up the Sun - JNY post 1 10 31 11

 

But that’s history. We don’t buy stocks using a hindsight model – at least not if we want to be sitting in our chairs in a year’s time.

 

The intellectually honest questions from here are 1) Has the strategy/business model changed? If so, then 2) Does JNY have the talent to execute change, and 3) Is there enough cumulative investment spend/infrastructure to sustain a healthy organic top line growth rate? Then, the ultimate question revolves around timing for realization of success/failure vs. expectations.

 

The reality is that the answer to question 1 is ‘No’. Here are some points from the quarter as to why this is the case. Then I’ll move to duration.

 

Wholesale Sportswear

Management: “At wholesale the Jones New York Easy Care program experienced another great quarter of double-digit sales growth, while our Replenishment Suiting sales volume increased 56% versus last year.”

Hedgeye Retail: Then why was that category down 10.7%?

 

Wholesale Jeanswear was down 18.1%. Do you believe that? This is the same quarter where JNY confirmed that it was in talk to sell the division. I wonder if Delta Galil Industries knew about these numbers when the talks began.

 

Domestic Wholesale Footwear and Accessories: Really solid performance here. Sales were up 5.2%, which was driven by a new partnership with Brian Atwood, which had what appears to be a successful sell-in to super-high end channels like Saks and Neiman (also Nordstrom and Bloomies). 

 

While I give ‘em all the credit they deserve in my model, I sit back and ask myself “What value did Jones add here that others CANNOT? Ultimately, is there someone closer to the source that could take out JNY as middleman and get the product to consumers at a more accessible price OR at a higher margin to Atwood and the actual manufacturer? The answer is Yes. That’s the problem when you rely on licensing in other brands to grow.

 

JNY’s total top line growth in the quarter? Not the anemic 2.2% reported, but rather the horrible -5.4% organic when you back out deals.

 

SG&A in the quarter when you exclude deals? Flat. How can you expect core content to grow when you don’t invest in it?

 

Internally, they don’t. That’s why they need to add on Stuart Weitzman. That’s why they need Atwood. That’s why they need Kurt Geiger (the only reason why International sales doubled.)

 

What next?

1)      Benefit initially from momentum of new content.

2)      Then financially/operationally engineer the new brands and acquisitions to keep margins high.

3)      Kick the can down the road as much as they can before lowering growth outlook.

4)      Write off asset values and/or lose license agreements as JNY misses performance targets.

5)      Do more deals to keep the hope alive.

 

One key consideration? With LT Debt to Capital sitting at 42%, JNY doesn’t quite have the balance sheet that it used to. I’m not suggesting that it has liquidity or counterparty risk. That’s not the case by any means. 

 

Until the company shows me that it’s going to do what it needs to do to either a) be committed to developing its existing bench, or b) sending half the team to the minors and compete with a smaller and more focused group (a la LIZ), then JNY simply is not worth it for me unless I can find glaring holes in expectations.

 

[NOTE TO READER: THIS IS WHERE I CLICKED PAUSE FOR THREE DAYS TO SEE WHERE ESTIMATES SHOOK OUT, AND THE BULL EMERGED FROM ITS CAVE].

  • I found glaring holes in expectations.
  • The more I thought about it, points 1 through 5 above realistically take 2-3 years to play out. That’s like an eternity to Wall Street.
  • For many reasons – almost every one of them related to an acquisition – we’re coming up with an EPS estimate of $1.74 next year. The street is at $1.43. Does a 22% upwards revision matter for a small volatile name like JNY? Yes.
  • This business – as below average as it might be – still throws off cash, and is not capex intensive. Based on our model, JNY could buy back 10% of the company per year at the current rate. Will it? No way. As noted it’s much more interested in buying brands and stock in other entities as opposed to its own.  But as long as folks can pull out their HPs and run these numbers – even on a more beared-up model – the argument will be there.
  • This company has proven to be VERY good at holding balloons under water.  It can do it for a fairly long time – much longer than most people (including me) think. When the balloon is released, however, it not only deflates, but it flat-out explodes and gets torn  to shreds. So how can I be positive on the stock when I think this will happen again? As noted above, even though I have EPS by 2015 BELOW current levels, it will be driven by unhealthy actions along the way that should allow the company to not only beat, but give the Street reasons to think that it is sustainable.

 

In Hedgeye speak, this name is still very negative TAIL (3-years or less), but as negative as it is on a TAIL duration, it is positive on TREND (3 months or more). As it relates to TRADE (3-weeks or less), we definitely want to be careful on this one.  Right now, we’re looking at bullish TRADE and TREND lines converging b/t 10.29-10.81.

 

JNY: Soak Up the Sun - JNY levels

 

Brian P. McGough
Managing Director




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