This was the worst weekly jobless claims report since 2 weeks after September 11, 2001. Is it scary out there? Uh, yeah... how scary versus what the market has priced in remains a better question. The S&P500 has lost -45% of its value.
We are not in the business of managing risk reactively. We are in the business of proactively preparing you for tail risk (like 6-7% unemployment) when we did 6-9 months ago.
This morning's news of 516,000 jobless claims is bad, but the market isn't crashing on it. See the chart below for why the ghosts and goblins of October 2008 are flailing around trading desks creating a narrative fallacy that this wasn't expected.
KM
We are not in the business of managing risk reactively. We are in the business of proactively preparing you for tail risk (like 6-7% unemployment) when we did 6-9 months ago.
This morning's news of 516,000 jobless claims is bad, but the market isn't crashing on it. See the chart below for why the ghosts and goblins of October 2008 are flailing around trading desks creating a narrative fallacy that this wasn't expected.
KM
