Initial jobless claims came in at 402k versus Bloomberg survey 401k.  The jobs picture remains poor and consumer confidence is reflecting that.  Later this morning the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index will be released and tomorrow morning the University of Michigan Confidence print will hit the tape.  It will be interesting to see if these two data points corroborate with the sharp drop in the Conference Board consumer confidence metric earlier this week.  There has been some debate as to why retail sales and confidence data has been diverging recently.  As our retail team pointed out during the week, at some point, the spread between these two trends is likely to come in.


THE HBM: PNRA, PFCB - initial claims 1027





THE HBM: PNRA, PFCB - subsector fbr





PNRA: Panera Bread was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust.


PNRA: Panera Break was reiterated Equal Weight at Barclays.


PNRA: Panera Bread was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Miller Tabek.  The twelve-month price target is $133 per share.





PFCB:  P.F. Chang’s reported earnings this morning.  EPS came in at $0.29 cents ($0.27 adjusted) versus expectations of $0.32.  Comps were -3.7% at the Bistro which was in line with expectations.  Pei Wei’s top-line trends were below expectations, coming in at -3.6% versus -2.2%.  Consolidated restaurant margins came in at 16% versus 16.4% consensus.  The call is going on and management has stated that the company is not for sale, despite rumors of PE interest.


THE HBM: PNRA, PFCB - bistro pod 1


THE HBM: PNRA, PFCB - pei wei pod 1



EAT:  Brinker International was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Stern Agee.


THE HBM: PNRA, PFCB - stocks 1027



Howard Penney

Managing Director


Rory Green


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