INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 1K - NOT TOO EXCITING BUT NOT GETTING WORSE

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Initial jobless claims fell 1k last week to 403k (falling 6k net of the revision to the prior week).  Rolling claims were also at 403k, down 6k from the prior week.  While the rate of improvement has been disappointing, claims have been edging lower over the last five weeks (on a rolling basis).  We remain struck by the fact that the supposedly "technical" factors that affected the 395k number published a few weeks ago have not yet reversed. Overall, this is more positive than we would have expected, especially given market weakness and the lack of fiscal or monetary stimulus.  

 

Meanwhile, the spread between claims and the S&P remains nearly as wide as it's ever been in the last three years.  If claims move to the level implied by the S&P, that would be roughly 450k.  For reference, a 475k claims level would be consistent with 0% or lower GDP growth.  

 

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 1K - NOT TOO EXCITING BUT NOT GETTING WORSE - Rolling

 

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 1K - NOT TOO EXCITING BUT NOT GETTING WORSE - Raw

 

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 1K - NOT TOO EXCITING BUT NOT GETTING WORSE - NSA chart

 

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 1K - NOT TOO EXCITING BUT NOT GETTING WORSE - Fed and Claims


INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 1K - NOT TOO EXCITING BUT NOT GETTING WORSE - s p 07 10

 

2-10 Spread

The 2-10 spread tightened by 2 bps last week as the 10-year yield dropped 5 bps.  

 

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 1K - NOT TOO EXCITING BUT NOT GETTING WORSE - 2 10 Yield Spread

 

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 1K - NOT TOO EXCITING BUT NOT GETTING WORSE - 2 10 yield spread sequential

 

Subsector Performance 

The table below shows the performance of financial subsectors over various durations.

 

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 1K - NOT TOO EXCITING BUT NOT GETTING WORSE - Subsector Performance

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Allison Kaptur

 

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