Editor's Note: This complimentary update offers a glimpse into the insights, ideas and market analysis we’re tracking at Hedgeye. Our full research and investing strategies are available exclusively to subscribers, providing deeper, data-driven perspectives to help you stay ahead.
Last Friday, the “risk” started to materialize slowly in the morning, then hit like a freight train by afternoon. This was a textbook example of what often happens in #Quad4—the economic environment when inflation and growth are both slowing.
Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough sent 8 buy alerts on Friday afternoon to help subscribers capitalize on opportunities to buy low, as well as 3 short signals on assets that remained overpriced.
While others panicked, we saw it for what it was: a buying opportunity to set up for #Quad2 in March and April (inflation & growth accelerating).
Market Breakdown: The #Quad4 Hit in Real Time
Last week, we saw class #Quad4 signals across key assets:
- US Consumer Discretionary (XLY) stocks led the losers, dropping -3.8% for the week and confirming their Bearish TREND.
- UST 10-Year Yield fell -5 basis points, moving toward the low end of the risk range.
- Bitcoin? Down another -1.3%, taking its February #Quad4 drawdown to -9.2% for the month.
KEY SIGNALS: CURRENCIES & COMMODITIES TO WATCH
As we prepare for #Quad2 ahead, key trends are emerging in currencies and commodities:
- Long Natural Gas (UNG) allocation surged another +13.7% last week, bringing its 3-month gain to +28.8%.
- Long Corn (CORN) continues to perform well, up +1.8% last week, and showing a solid +18.3% return over the past three months.
- The U.S. Dollar is weakening, while the Japanese Yen and Colombian Peso are on the rise.
It’s All About the Process, Not the Headlines
At Hedgeye, we don’t need narratives. We’re not here to follow the crowd.
We track the rate of change in growth and inflation using our Growth, Inflation, Policy (GIP) framework. Our Macro team has built predictive tracking algorithms to forecast growth and inflation for the U.S. and the top 50 economies worldwide, covering 90% of global GDP.
Top-down Macro combined with bottom-up fundamental analysis is a winning combination.
BUILD A BETTER PORTFOLIO—THE HEDGEYE WAY
If you're looking for a go-anywhere strategy, it's time to adopt the Hedgeye process. A good place place to start is inside ETF Pro Plus and Investing Ideas.
With these products, you get access to:
- Hedgeye’s highest-conviction investment ideas
- Keith’s quantitative Buy/Sell levels for each stock or ETF
- Timely trade alerts when our signals change
- Data-driven analysis explaining each investment selection
Now’s the time to build a portfolio that’s prepared for what’s coming next.
