Yesterday’s initial jobless claims number came in at 404k versus expectations of 405k and the prior week’s revised 405k. The jobs picture is far from improving and, while the numbers are not deteriorating, we believe that casual dining needs an improvement in the jobs picture to boost demand.  


THE HBM: SAFM, GMCR, SBUX, SONC, DIN - initial claims 1014



Gasoline prices have ticked up over the last week as the dollar has weakened and some optimism on the economy has surfaced. 


THE HBM: SAFM, GMCR, SBUX, SONC, DIN - gasoline prices 1014


Advance Retail Sales for September came in at +1.1% versus expectations of 0.7%.  Retail Sales Less Autos came in at 0.6% versus expectations of 0.3%.




China’s inflation came in at 6.1% in September, exceeding 6% for a fourth month in succession.





THE HBM: SAFM, GMCR, SBUX, SONC, DIN - subsectors fbr





SAFM: Sanderson Farms target increased to $52 from $48 at Stephens





GMCR: Green Mountain Coffee Roasters was upgraded by Longbow Research to Buy, with a price target of $112.


SBUX: Starbucks was reiterated “Overweight”at Piper Jaffray and its price target was raised to $55 from $50.


SONC: Sonic announced that its Board of Directors authorized a stock repurchase program for up to $30 million worth of common stock through August 31, 2012.





DIN: DineEquity has announced that franchisee Neighborhood Restaurant Parnters purchased Apple Restaurants, which includes 40 Applebee’s in the Atlanta area. No terms of the agreement were disclosed.


THE HBM: SAFM, GMCR, SBUX, SONC, DIN - stocks 1014



Howard Penney

Managing Director


Rory Green



Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

read more

Premium insight

McCullough [Uncensored]: When People Say ‘Everyone is Bullish, That’s Bulls@#t’

“You wonder why the performance of the hedge fund indices is so horrendous,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, “they’re all doing the same thing, after the market moves. You shouldn’t be paid for that.”

read more

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Replay | Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Tune in to this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more