In this exclusive clip from Hedgeye’s Q1 2025 Mid-Quarter Macro Themes Update, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough tackles a critical question from an institutional client:
How should investors navigate the uncertainty of the Fourth Turning?
The Fourth Turning is a historical theory developed by Hedgeye Demography analyst Neil Howe and his late partner William Strauss. It suggests that history moves in cycles of four generational eras, or “turnings,” with the Fourth Turning being a period of crisis—marked by upheaval, conflict, and transformative change. These moments often reshape society through war, revolution, or economic and political realignment.
McCullough delivers a blunt reality check: anyone claiming to have a precise, certain answer for investing in this environment is likely full of $#!t.
Instead of chasing false certainty, he argues, investors should embrace uncertainty and adapt to the evolving landscape. In volatile times, flexibility and an open mind aren’t just advantages—they’re necessities.
"Why would I act on anything other than what the market is doing? Yes, the Fourth Turning is a thing. Yes, it just happened in the U.S. election. It happened in Argentina. It's going to happen in other countries.
Is it going to create volatility? The answer is very clear: I don't know. And if you think you know I'm probably going to do better risk managing it. Some of the most thoughtful questions just don't have answers.
I think the future is going to be much more Gen X types or a generation younger than me that uses math and rules-based processes because that's where the world's already gone. We're not going to use some crusty old bureaucrat from the Old Wall to tell me where inflation is going next."
To get access to our Macro team's entire 156-page themes deck, visit Hedgeye.com for more.
