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JOBLESS CLAIMS RESILIENCE SEEMS UNSUSTAINABLE

Jobless claims came in this week at 404k.  Backing out the revision to last week's data, claims moved higher by 3k.  Looking at the non-seasonally-adjusted series, there was an increase of 66k claims week over week - an apparently large number but not atypical for the week following quarter-end.  

 

We are struck by the fact that the supposedly "technical" factors that caused the sudden decline in claims a month ago have not reversed.  Distortions around quarter-end are typical, and the decrease didn't show up as an aberration in the non-seasonally-adjusted data.  Meanwhile, the spread between claims and the S&P remains as wide as it's ever been in the last three years.  If claims move to the level implied by the S&P, that would be roughly 475k.  For reference, a 475k claims level would be consistent with 0% or lower GDP growth.

 

Bigger picture, monetary stimulus has had a tight correlation to improving initial claims. The lack of further easing from the Fed means that this tailwind is now gone.  With further fiscal stimulus also off the table, we expect that initial claims will reflect growing weakness.  

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS RESILIENCE SEEMS UNSUSTAINABLE - rolling


JOBLESS CLAIMS RESILIENCE SEEMS UNSUSTAINABLE - raw

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS RESILIENCE SEEMS UNSUSTAINABLE - NSA

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS RESILIENCE SEEMS UNSUSTAINABLE - claims and fed

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS RESILIENCE SEEMS UNSUSTAINABLE - sp and claims

 

2-10 Spread

The 2-10 spread widened by 29 bps versus the prior week as the market rallied. 

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS RESILIENCE SEEMS UNSUSTAINABLE - 2 10 Spread

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS RESILIENCE SEEMS UNSUSTAINABLE - 2 10 Spread QoQ

 

Subsector Performance 

The table below shows the performance of financial subsectors over various durations.

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS RESILIENCE SEEMS UNSUSTAINABLE - Subsector performance

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Allison Kaptur

 

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LIZ: Playing Out in Black Book Fashion

 

Liz is changing exactly what it should be changing -- EVERYTHING. Could not be more spot on with what they need, and our thesis. The valuation profile and investor base will change dramatically here.

 

 

Liz is changing exactly what it should be changing -- EVERYTHING. Could not be more spot on with what they need, and our thesis, as we outlined in our Sept. 13th Black Book (LIZ: Get In While You Can). The valuation profile and investor base will change dramatically here.

 

What the company looked like yesterday – a highly levered (~4x Net Debt-to-EBITDA on 2012 numbers) weak primary brand, inactive management/board, no earnings, and valued largely by hopeful EBITDA numbers and phantom breakup values; to being one that has a much more defendable portfolio that is, by and large - actually growing (or just returning to growth after years of investment) has just had its debt levels decimated to 1.7-1.9x Net Debt/EBITDA on 2012 numbers – virtually eliminating bankruptcy risk. It has one division alone with a growth profile like few others in global retail that accounts for over 50% of the company’s cash flow.

 

We've heard nothing but silence by most investors as we worked this name as our top idea over  the better part of this year. But now people will start to value it like a viable stand-alone company with earnings power better than a buck within reason.

 

Slap on a reasonable EBITDA, PE, sales, FCF, or just about any other metric you want, and the stock still looks attractive even after yesterday's 34% run.

 

LIZ: Playing Out in Black Book Fashion - LIZ LevRatio 10 11

 

 



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Time to Fail

"The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming …”

-Theodore Roosevelt

 

I’ll admit that my peak athletic days are behind me.  At my best, I was a middling college hockey defenseman with a propensity for extended stays in the penalty box.  My worst probably came last night in a beer league hockey game in Hamden, CT.  Nonetheless, my hometown of Bassano, Alberta has invited me back to speak at the annual Sportsmen of the Year Dinner, so my athleticism is, apparently, still appreciated somewhere.

 

In a shift of athletic gears, this summer I joined the New Haven Lawn Club and officially began my tennis career.  Certainly I’ve played tennis before, but not on clay courts attired completely in whites.  As many of you know, tennis clubs are typically populated by people that have spent a good chunk of their lives, well, populating tennis clubs.  Needless to say, this Alberta farm boy was a little overmatched this summer.   In fact, my summer was spent failing and, often, miserably so.

 

Personally, I’ve never believed failure to be a bad thing.  Now sure, losing or failing doesn’t give you the warm fuzzies inside, but failing and adapting ultimately sets you up for greater success.  In a 2008 commencement address to Harvard, author J.K. Rowling, who made a billion dollars for her Harry Potter series, adroitly summed up the benefits of failing when she said:

 

“So why do I talk about the benefits of failure? Simply because failure meant a stripping away of the inessential. I stopped pretending to myself that I was anything other than what I was, and began to direct all my energy into finishing the only work that mattered to me.”

 

As it relates to Europe sovereign debt, the one solution that has not been seriously considered is failure.   Instead, the key solution from almost every Eurocrat and talking head, is to continue to support and promote a broken banking system and failed monetary union.  There are other possibilities: let Greece fail, let other sovereigns fail if they can’t get their house in order, and let heavily exposed banks fail. 

 

The validation of the failure strategy at least partially comes in comparing the credit default swaps of Italy, Portugal and Ireland from July 1st, 2011 to today.  Respectively, Italian swaps are up 140%, Portuguese up 38.2%, and Irish down -3.2%.  Now to be fair, Ireland hasn’t failed, but three of largest banks, Allied Irish, Irish Life & Permanent, and Bank of Ireland have experienced “credit events” and, as a result, Ireland’s credit worthiness has improved, on the margin.

 

A more pressing question facing stock market operators is: will this current stock market rally fail?  In the near term, the key driver of the stock market will likely be corporate earnings reports.  To sustain positive price momentum, companies will need to both hit their estimates and also maintain future guidance.  Currently, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates, 2012 consensus expectations for EPS for the SP500 is $106.15, which implies 16% year-over-year growth in earnings.

 

Certainly, that type of earnings growth is possible for the SP500, but it is highly contingent on underlying economic growth.  Currently, our view is the economic growth will be in the sub-1.0% range in 2012.  In the last thirty years, there have been five years of 1%, or less, GDP growth in the U.S.  On average, in those years, SP500 earnings declined -18.3% y-o-y.  Thus, unless economic activity accelerates in the U.S., it is highly unlikely that 16% y-o-y growth in earnings is met.  Assuming the Hedgeye view of economic growth is correct, there is substantial downside to current 2012 consensus earnings estimates.  History would suggest, as outlined above, that 2012 earnings could be too high by at least one-third.

 

Alongside earnings growth, there is of course the quality of earnings.  J.P. Morgan kicked off the earnings debate this morning with an EPS number of $1.02 that, at first blush, seems solidly above consensus of $0.92.  The questions as always, though, relates to the quality of earnings, and $0.29 of EPS was a “benefit from debit valuation adjustment (“DVA”) gains in the Investment Bank, resulting from widening of the Firm’s credit spreads.”  So, if we back out the benefit to JPM’s earnings from widening of their credit spreads, EPS declined -27% year-over-year.  Yikes !

 

The more pressing failure in global macro land this morning is the failure of the Chinese to maintain high exports to Europe. To be fair, in aggregate Chinese exports overall were up 17.1% in September, which is a formidable number.  Unfortunately, exports to Europe, Chinese largest trading partner, declined substantially, sequentially from 22% year-over-year in August to 9.8% in September.  As the Chart of the Day below shows, this is the second slowest year-over-year growth rate of Chinese exports to Europe in 18+ months.

 

Chinese economic activity is clearly slowing, but in our purview it is still too early to call for massive Chinese easing.  As my colleague Darius Dale wrote yesterday:

 

“All things considered, it could be a while before China pulls the trigger on the monetary easing front. Merely using 2008 as a semi-comparable reference, we saw that China waited a full six months for confirmation of flat-to-down sequential CPI growth and a -380bps reduction in YoY CPI before cutting interest rates in early September of that year.”

 

Certainly though, growth doesn’t slow forever and whether by monetary stimulus or organic means, the positive catalyst we will be looking for is growth accelerating, on the margin.  So far though, it is too early to bet on that. 

 

Keep your head up and stick on the ice,

 

Daryl G. Jones

Director of Research

 

Time to Fail - DJ time to fail

 

Time to Fail - VVP dj


THE HBM: TSN, SBUX, PZZA, DIN, DRI, BWLD

THE HEDGEYE BREAKFAST MONITOR

 

MACRO NOTES

 

Commodities

 

Upwardly revised grain stockpiles estimates in the US are driving corn and wheat prices lower this morning.

 

 

SUBSECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

Food processor stocks were boosted by corn’s slide yesterday with TSN the biggest beneficiary.

 

THE HBM: TSN, SBUX, PZZA, DIN, DRI, BWLD - subsector fbr

 

 

QUICK SERVICE

 

SBUX: Starbucks announced yesterday the availability of its Via Ready Brew in House Blend and Breakfast Blend at select grocery stores across the US.

 

SBUX: According to the blog “Starbucks Gossip”, “The super big announcement that is going down is about whole bean coffee and how the categories are going to change. Starbucks is going to offer three different categories -- "blonde," mild and dark roasts. There will now be two new coffees offered that are milder than Breakfast Blend. I believe the new category system and new coffee offerings are going to start late this year with an official launch in January 2012.”

 

HEDGEYE - While this may be gossip, it makes sense now that SBUX controls its distribution channel for the company to continue with new product innovation.

 

SBUX:  In an interview yesterday, CEO Howard Schultz says Brazil and China are emerging markets where Starbucks has too few stores.

 

PZZA:  GE Capital, Franchise Finance recently completed a $9.5 million transaction with BAJCO Group, a Papa John’s Pizza franchisee, for the refinancing of existing debt. Funding was provided through GE Capital’s bank affiliate, GE Capital Financial Inc.

 

GMCR traded down on significantly higher volume during yesterday’s trading.


 

CASUAL DINING

 

DIN: Dine Equity has announced the sale of 17 Applebee’s from which it expects net proceeds of $15.9m. DIN has sold 259 restaurants since buying Applebee’s in November 2007.

 

DRI: Darden is to add Eddie V’s Prime Seafood and Wildfish Seafood Grille to its specialty restaurant group, according to the WSJ.  The acquisition of 11 locations cost Darden $59M in cash and the deal will, according to the company, be neutral to its fiscal earnings.

 

BWLD:  Buffalo Wild Wings was cut to “Neutral” at Dougherty & Co.  The twelve-month price target is $63.

 

MRT traded higher yesterday on strong volume.

 

THE HBM: TSN, SBUX, PZZA, DIN, DRI, BWLD - stocks 10.13

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst


Insecurity's Ego

This note was originally published at 8am on October 10, 2011. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“I love playing ego and insecurity combined.”

-Jim Carrey

 

There is a good article in this week’s The Economist titled “Return to Maastricht” where Charlamagne interviews locals in the Dutch town that gave birth to the Euro in 1991. Frans Timmermans has a concise quote on page 68 that summarizes the Eurozone today:

 

“Europe seems to be an agent of insecurity. The benefits are invisible; the downside is very visible indeed.”

 

The French know this. The Belgians know this. The Germans and the Dutch know it too – but the question remains as to whether or not they need to swallow Bear Stearns like exposures whole to the extent that the French and Belgians do.

 

On that score, this morning’s #1 Most Read Story on Bloomberg tells you all you need to know about what matters to interconnected Global Macro markets today:

 

“Merkel, Sarkozy Pledge Bank Recapitalization”

 

And while there are very different definitions of the size and scope of this “recapitalization” (coined first at Hedgeye as the Eurocrat Bazooka), this morning’s Global Macro market action tells you all you need to know about dominos.

 

Dexia, as we wrote last week, is the domino.

 

Dexia is a Belgian/French bank that is being bailed out this morning by, drum-roll, Belgium and France. Sure, the fine lads in Luxembourg appear to be throwing in some Europig Paper too – but, ultimately, this is a Belgian and French thing. A really big thing for those 2 countries in particular (relative to Germany and the Netherlands), because Belgium and France have marked their Pig Paper at par!

 

Qu’est ce qui se passe avec le marking of le Pig Paper at par?

 

Put simply, this is what Bear, Lehman, Morgan, etc. did in 2007-2008. They called it “level 3 asset pricing.” And Bailout Bankers around the world can call it whatever they want in Europe this morning, but there is one thing it is not – marked-to-market!

 

The most important move in all of Global Macro for the past 3 weeks has been that the US Dollar Index has been up for 3 consecutive weeks. In the end, I think this is the most bullish development there has been for the US economy. Strong Dollar = Strong America.

 

With the US Dollar Index up +7.8%  since La Bernank tested Burning The Buck to a 30-year low in April of 2011, this has been good for the 71% of America that matters – Consumption (C) as a % of US GDP – and bad for dysfunctional debtors who are begging for bailouts.

 

This isn’t a consensus view. But I’m not really a consensus kind of a guy. And neither should you be. If the last 3 years has taught you anything about common sense, one is that Keynesianism is not for the commoner. If you are a debt laden aristocrat, sorry – can’t help.

 

Of course the US Dollar strengthening has nothing to do with Ben Bernanke or Tim Geithner changing their Keynesian policies (yes, It’s The Policy, Stupid). It has everything to do with the Europeans trying to do exactly what our Too Big To Perform financial system had Americans do in 2008 – bailout bad banks with tax payer backed fiat currency.

 

Perversely, with the “news” of the Dexia Domino in motion this morning, the Euro is rallying to another lower short-term and lower long-term high. This has more to do with the mechanics of the EUR/USD pair being the most widely held short position on planet hedge fund right now, so don’t let it stress you out.

 

Across all 3 of our risk management durations (TRADE, TREND, and TAIL), the Euro (versus the USD) remains bearish/broken:

  1. TRADE resistance = $1.36
  2. TREND resistance = $1.42
  3. TAIL resistance = $1.39

When all 3 of our risk management durations are bearish/broken, we call this a Bearish Formation. Those are not good.

 

And neither is Austria or Greece seeing their stock markets get hammered for -4.5% moves to the downside this morning. I guess that’s what you get when your Eurocrat Bazooka isn’t big enough, yet. Size matters. Insolvent European banks are seeing their marked-to-market stock prices fail. Insecurity’s Ego is going to have to have another European emergency bailout meeting about that…

                                      

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil, the German DAX, and the SP500 are now $1604-1676, $80.66-84.66, 5429-5830, and 1145-1169, respectively. My Cash position in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model dropped to 64% from 73% week-over-week.

 

Happy Canadian Thanksgiving and best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Insecurity's Ego - EURBEAR

 

Insecurity's Ego - VPDEUX


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