According to the Bloomberg hedge fund performance article this morning, both Paulson's Advantage Plus Fund and Bruce Kovner's Caxton Global Fund are having fantastic years.
When we talk about "hedgies", we are not referring to the PM's out there who know how to manage risk. Paulson and Kovner are amongst those who are profiting from the "hedgies" groupthink.
Well done gentlemen, well done!
China's PPI came in at +6.6% y/y (see chart). This is down materially from the +9.1% reported in September, and what now looks like it was a 12 year peak in August at +10.1% year over year.
If you are going to invest in equities, we suggest you do so globally. Combined with the $586B stimulus plan that the Chinese instituted this morning, decelerating inflation is a positive macro factor. This puts owning the Chinese etf (FXI) at the top of our global macro country investment list.
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TSN said it may take a quarter or two before the supply/price relationship comes into balance, but relative to its current environment, “ultimately this will not go on. It cannot go on forever. So there will be a time when these prices will materially rise, and that time frame is not years away. It's months away. Whether it's this quarter or next quarter or whether it has to wait till April or May, it is going to happen.” However, due to the volume of questions/concerns around the chicken segment, investors did not seem comforted by this statement. Management alluded to these concerns at the close of its earnings call when it said, “Let me just conclude by saying it's evident that on the chicken side, you all think we should be cutting production. I will tell you we will continue to monitor that, but I still believe that the improvements that we've put in place and what we are doing to match demand with supply is the right thing for Tyson Foods.”
Below we show this via 3 currency lines: the US, Canadian, and Australian dollars. Last night, Asia currencies continued to stabilize alongside Asian equity markets, which are now all being buoyed by a proactive Chinese government stimulus package.
Bottoms in markets are processes, not points. This is one more macro factor to add to the bullish side of the ledger.
While I take any statistical evidence from Chinese authorities with a massive grain of salt, Government stats show that 67,000 factories were shuttered in China in the first half of the year, and more than 100,000 plants will have closed by year-end. My math suggests that about 8-10% of this is footwear and apparel.
An interesting story highlighted in the LA Times noted the closure last week of China’s biggest textile dye operation — with four factories, a campus the size of 31 football fields, 4,000 workers, and 300 local suppliers that also face bankruptcy. Not good at all…
Is China’s stimulus package going to help? My two cents is that we should not hold our breath. Do you REALLY think that a domestic stimulus plan that could very well end up being the same size (in US dollars) as Paulson’s bailout plan is geared toward amping up the firepower for low-end export goods? Quite the opposite… That’s the exact business that China is trying to shift away from in its quest to morph into more of a local consumer-driven economy instead of a sweat-shop economy. That’s great for companies who’s net revenue base in China is greater than its sourcing base (Nike and Adidas are the only ones that come close), but everyone else will suffer the imbalance.
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