CA RETAIL SALES TAX RECEIPTS TAKE A DIVE IN 3Q

The California State Controller released the Statement of General Fund Cash Receipts and Disbursements for September 2011.

 

The monthly report issues yesterday by CA State Controller John Chiang covers the state’s cash balance, receipts and disbursements in September.  Revenues came in below projections from the recently passed state budget.  Chiang said that “September's revenues alone do not guarantee that triggers will be pulled. But as the largest revenue month before December, these numbers do not paint a hopeful picture.”

 

We focus on Retail Sales and Use Tax Receipts as one data point pertaining to the health of the consumer in the Golden State.  For the quarter ending September 30th, this figure dropped over 21% year-over-year.   Below, we chart this trend on a one- and two-year basis versus CAKE blended same-store sales.  The 3Q11 CAKE number (yellow bar) is a hypothetical comp arrived at by assuming that the two-year average trend in CAKE’s comparable sales trend holds flat.  We do not have access to enough data points to infer a meaningful correlation between these two metrics but certainly do not see the drop in retail sales tax receipts as bullish for the prospects of any restaurant/retail businesses with exposure to California.  20.7% of CAKE’s store base is in California.  BJRI and PFCB also have 50% and 14%, respectively, of their restaurants in California.

 

CA RETAIL SALES TAX RECEIPTS TAKE A DIVE IN 3Q - cake ca sales tax

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst

 


Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more

REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

read more

Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.

read more

Premium insight

[UNLOCKED] Today's Daily Trading Ranges

“If I could only have one thing of the many things we have it would be my daily ranges." Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough said recently.

read more

We'll Say It Again: Leave Your Politics Out of Your Portfolio

If your politics dictates your portfolio positioning, the Democrats and #NeverTrump crowd out there have had a hell of a week.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more