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JNY: Insight On A Jeanswear Deal

 

To the extent that this is not a firesale because business is tanking, it makes sense strategically. But the timing is suspect.

 

 

There are puts and takes on this proposed JNY Jeanswear sale to Israel’s Delta Galil Industries (DELT.IT). Netting it all out, I come out on the plus side – IF it actually happens.

 

Biggest positive:  It would provide a $4.50 slug of cash to a company with a sub-$10 stock. And let’s face some facts, with brands like l.e.i, energie, Gloria, and Jessica Simpson selling squarely in mid and lower tier channels in a stagflationary environment, it’s not the most defendable business out there.  In fact, much of this content exists not because it should, but because years of deflationary sourcing costs and lower interest rates allowed JNY to roll up a portfolio of average content, and then keep it afloat while milking for cash.

 

The new reality removes the opacity of this model, and management knows this. If they can relieve the balance sheet pressure, get rid of the low end of the portfolio, and simply rid themselves of a distraction while they focus on real content – like Jones New York and Weitzman – then I’m ok with this.

  1. On the negative side, the company came out and said that it would use proceeds to repo stock. That’s great…really, it is. But they have over $7 per share in debt, deferred payments remaining  for its Stuart Weitzman acquisition and a sub-$10 stock. Maybe they have such huge confidence in their business such that a sub-$10 stock is ridiculous to them. That’d be super bullish, and I definitely won’t ignore that. But in this market, I’d like JNY to finally put on its conservatism pants and get rid of debt.
  2. The price seems out of whack. Either; a) the multiple is either really low, b) the business is really bad, or c) the business being discussed is actually a subset of what we otherwise currently classify as JNY Jeanswear. Wholesale Jeanswear generated about $820mm in revs last year at a respectable 9.3% EBIT margin. On those numbers, the range discussed amounts to 4.0-4.5x EBITDA. Granted, those margins are what I’d consider a peak. Haircut them by 25% to what’s realistic for this year, and it suggests 5.0-5.8x EBITDA on the disposal.  This compares to JNY’s current multiple of around 4.8x EBITDA.
  3. Of course, the bigger curve ball would be that JNY is missing the quarter meaningfully, making the multiple higher than it seems. That would also synch with timing of this leak. I wouldn’t put this past them to divert investors’ attention away from the quarter in favor of a capital markets event.

Lastly, be careful on this one. LIZ looked like a great idea at $10, and not a whole lot changed while it dropped to $4 – certainly not enough to explain away a 60% loss in equity value. Yes, JNY looks cheap. But it could be a value trap waiting to happen. I think LIZ offers up a better portfolio, more upside, and far stronger downside support.

 

 

JNY Segment Results & 2011 Outlook:

JNY: Insight On A Jeanswear Deal - JNY Segs 10 11

 

JNY: Insight On A Jeanswear Deal - JNY Guid 10 11

 

JNY: Insight On A Jeanswear Deal - JNY 10 11

 

Brian McGough

Managing Director

 

 


THE HBM: PNRA, RUTH

THE HEDGEYE BREAKFAST MONITOR

 

MACRO

 

Commodities

 

Corn has declined in Chicago as speculation mounts that the U.S. may raise its global supply estimate tomorrow.

 

 

SUB-SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

Casual Dining outperformed peer subsector groups during yesterday’s trading.

 

THE HBM: PNRA, RUTH - subsector fbr

 

 

QUICK SERVICE

 

PNRA:  Shares of Panera Bread gained almost 4% yesterday.  Wedbush Securities were quoted in the media as saying that the company may start buying back its own stock, which would provide potential upside to the company’s estimates.

 

 

CASUAL DINING

 

RT: Ruth's Chris gained 15.7% on strong volume yesterday, outperforming both quick service and casual dining.

 

THE HBM: PNRA, RUTH - stocks 1011

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - October 11, 2011

 

Levels matter and ASIA looks more bearish in the majors (HK, Nikkei, KOSPI, etc) than Germany, France, and Italy do right now – that’s telling you something about Global Growth that is ringing in the -1.1% and -2.7% selloffs in oil/copper this morning that should be respected. Every stock market in Asia and every major commodity has failed at TRADE resistance. 

 

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 31 points or -2.23% downside to 1167 and 0.26% upside to 1198

 


SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 1011

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 2530 (-1218) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 888.12 (-22%)
  • VIX:  33.02 -8.8% YTD PERFORMANCE: +86.03%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.24 from 2.54 (-11.80%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

 

From KM - US TREASURIES: very interesting action on the short end of the curve continues to develop w/ 2-year yields having broken out above my TRADE line of 0.21% and now testing my TREND line up at 0.30%. I expect short-term yields to back off here, but the short end of the curve should continue to pressure the Gold price (which failed again at $1678 TREND resistance)

  • TED SPREAD: 38.91
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.01%
  • 10-Year: 2.16 from 2.08     
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.85 from 1.79

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:30 a.m.: NFIB Small Business, est. 88.8, prior 88.1
  • 10:00 a.m: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, est. 39.4, prior 39.9
  • 11:30 a.m: U.S. to sell $29b 3-mo., $27b 6-mo. bills
  • 1:00 p.m.: U.S. to sell $32b 3-yr notes
  • 2:30 p.m.: Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner participates in Financial Stability Oversight Council meeting

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • FDIC to release Volcker Rule on proprietary trading
  • Chrysler talks with UAW continue
  • NBA cancels first two weeks of season
  • Hewlett-Packard said to decide future of WebOS, Palm this week, AppleInsider
  • FDA staff issues recommendation on Cook’s medicated heart stent ahead of 10/13 meeting; watch Medtronic, Baxter
  • Citigroup said to halt soliciting some Japanese retail business as it awaits government investigation outcome
  • Bloomberg/Washington Post Republican Presidential Debate at Dartmouth College, Hanover, N.H., 8 p.m.
  • No IPOs expeted to price today

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION                                                                    

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

 

MOST POPULAR COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Soy Slump Ending as Record Demand Overwhelms Farms: Commodities
  • Oil Drops From Two-Week High in New York Before Europe Debt Vote
  • Copper Declines Most in a Week on Concern About Chinese Demand
  • Timah to Resume Refined-Tin Exports After Price Rebounds
  • Corn Falls as U.S. May Raise Supply Estimate; Wheat Advances
  • Gold Declines in London as Commodities Fall Before Slovakia Vote
  • Sugar Declines in New York as Slower Growth May Curb Demand
  • Rio Says Greece Risk Overdone as China Overcomes ‘Wall of Worry’
  • U.S. Refinery Runs at Four-Month Low in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Soy Sinks More Than Oil Deepens Bond Sell-Off: Argentina Credit
  • Economists Call for Crop-Trading Limits to Curb Volatility
  • Most Tankers Idled Since ‘80s Won’t Buoy Charter Rates: Freight
  • Alcoa’s Earnings Recovery Slows on Aluminum Price ‘Headwind’
  • COMMODITIES DAYBOOK: Gold Declines, Oil Falls From 2-Week High
  • Ship Futures Jump to Year’s High as China Surge Lifts Charters
  • Aluminum Demand to Grow as Much as 10% in 5 Years, Novelis Says

 

CURRENCIES                                                                             

 

EURO – yesterday KM put up the $1.36 line in the sand and said short the Euro with “impunity” there.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

 


Early Look

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Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

Barroso's Bazooka

This note was originally published at 8am on October 06, 2011. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“I don’t have to be careful, I’ve got a gun.”

-Matt Groening

 

It’s only a matter of time before the likes of Jon Stewart and Matt Groening (creator of The Simpsons) start mocking this European Gong Show for what it has become – a gong show.

 

Groening made his debut in Wet Magazine in 1978 with a cartoon called “Life in Hell.” That might be a better way to describe how a money manager feels about dealing with La Bernank et Le Trichet’s concepts of Keynesian “price stability.” Today’s game of Globally Interconnected Risk is being driven by rumors of Barroso’s Bazooka.

 

Does Jose Manuel Barroso (President of the European Commission) have a bazooka? What’s the timing on its deployment? Who supports it? Oh the drama…

 

What we do know is that the IMF, ECB, EU, and Timmy Geithner are working on it, feverishly. These are the said leaders of our lives who are going to centrally plan our way to long-term prosperity. What would we do without them?

 

On the topic of the bazooka, this is what Geithner had to say yesterday:

 

Europe needs a more powerful financial backstop.”

 

This, of course, comes on the heels of Christine Madeleine Odette Lagarde saying she (or the 187 countries she now represents on behalf of France and The DSK at the IMF) has ze “infinite resources” to print ze ammo for Le Bazooka.

 

Or is it La Bazooka?

 

Maman, pardon mon francais, but this is what a Yale education has reduced me to. I’m now just a man with a keyboard and a tweet machine fighting the Socialists of the world who are putting another bailout gun to capitalism’s head.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

With the SP500 up +4.1% from its Monday closing low of 1099, the pain being felt in the hedge fund community is much greater than that.

 

You see, if you shorted the immediate-term TRADE oversold bottom (Tuesday morning) of 1078, and you’re staring down the crosshairs of the S&P Futures indicated up another 10 handles this morning, you are feeling the bazooka of the Pain Trade yourself.

 

Obviously whoever shorted the low instead of seeing it for what it was – a Short Covering Opportunity – does not Occupy Hedgeye as part of their risk management process. Shorting low and covering high isn’t cool.

 

So what do we do now?

 

The thing about this Barroso Bazooka is that it’s real. Weeks ago we did a 52-slide presentation outlining what the size of the bazooka could be and we’ll go over this again for clients on our Q4 Macro Themes Call next Friday (email sales@hedgeye if you want in), but here’s our headline math (slide 42): 

  1. 1.25-1.75 TRILLION Euros to Recapitalize European Banks
  2. 0.75-1.25 TRILLION Euros to Fund Future Deficits
  3. = 2-3 TRILLION Euro-TARP Bazooka 

Now, to be clear, as our Director of Research, Big Alberta, often reminds me – size matters. But there are still some other things about this bazooka to consider: 

  1. Timing – there is no timing. That’s a problem.
  2. Coordination – to deploy a bazooka that big, herding politicians of the world will be like herding cats.
  3. Markets – remain real-time. Tick tock. 

So… on with our risk management day.

 

Instead of sending our Senior European analyst, Matt Hedrick, back to France to pose as one of two-eggs-side-by-each on Lagarde’s breakfast meeting plate, the best we can do is let Mr. Macro Market tell us what to do.

 

The German DAX is breaking out above our immediate-term TRADE line of resistance (5439) again this morning. So the 1stthing we do is don’t short European Equities. Wait and watch.

 

The 2ndthing we do is watch the Euro/USD currency pair. If the Euro can close above $1.34, then the short squeeze in almost everything inversely-correlated to the US Dollar can continue (EUR/USD drives USD Index). If the Dutch come out intraday and vote down the size of Barosso’s Bazooka (and the Euro fails again at $1.34), there is no support all the way back down to its 2011 lows of $1.29-1.30.

 

In the end, like you are seeing with US money-center banks post the 2008 Geithner/Paulson TARP1 Bazooka, there will be an end … and piling more short-term debt-upon-debt on insolvent banks and their incompetent political advisors will end badly. Very badly.

 

But, back to the immediate-term, if you’re not the one with the gun – things can end badly for the pig-headed short seller too.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranged for Gold, Oil, the German DAX, and the SP500 are now $1601-1673, $75.86-84.59, 5439-5767, and 1099-1172, respectively. On Tuesday morning, I cut our Cash position from 73% down to 67%, taking our asset allocation to US Equities up to 6% (versus 0% at this time last week).

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Barroso's Bazooka - Chart of the Day

 

Barroso's Bazooka - Virtual Portfolio



Groupthink's Behavior

“Psychologist Irving Janis coined the term groupthink to describe ‘expert’ behavior.”

-Dan Gardner (“Future Babble”, page 109)

 

When our head of Healthcare Research, Tom Tobin, and I were working at what used to be called Dawson-Samberg (long-time hedge fund that split up) over a decade ago, we were learning what Wall Street “consensus” was by doing. Today, we continue to develop processes to quantify it. This, like any good process, takes flexibility, testing, and time.

 

Within the context of a long time, “groupthink” is a relatively new phenomena. Irving Janis’ original groupthink research at Yale University didn’t occur until the early 1970s. Since then, it’s been very helpful in analyzing both the military and economic policy mistakes of central planners.

 

Groupthink can also be applied to analyzing the behavior of short sellers – as in hedge funds – and how and when they make decisions. To be, or not to be hedged – remains the question. With the most obvious of groupthink occurring at the most painful ends of what we call the immediate-term TRADE range.

 

While it’s hard to believe that Old Wall Street missed making the 2011 Growth Slowing call (after having had the opportunity to review their 2008 forecasting mistakes), it’s even harder to believe that the SP500 can put on a 116 point (+10.7%) move in less than a week and still have so many hedge fund guys trafficking in the same high-short interest hedges.

 

Believe both.

 

I remember listening to a friend explain to me that John Paulson was “reducing his exposure to 62% net long” (with leverage) sometime back in early Q3 of 2011 and thinking to myself, that’s not a hedge fund – hedge funds hedge.

 

But that was just silly young me saying what any prudent Risk Manager should have said about Paulson’s positioning, given my bearish intermediate-term Global Macro view.

 

After I said it publically on CNBC again in July, I had people do the proactively predictable and tell me I was being whatever they call someone when they are confident in their view. After all, John Paulson is smart. But, then again, so is my team. Market opinions aren’t personal. Neither are the tail risks associated with redemptions and liquidations. It’s all part of the game.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

With the Short Covering Opportunity and the Eurocrat Bazooka Squeezes out of the way, now we can get back to managing risk around newly developed ranges. In the last week, a very important signal has developed on my immediate-term TRADE duration that supports that claim – the SP500 and Volatility have recovered their respective TRADE lines of support and resistance.

 

What does that mean? First, let’s look at the levels.

  1. SP500 TRADE line support = 1167 and TREND line resistance = 1228
  2. Volatility (VIX) TRADE line resistance = 36.91 and TREND line support = 29.02

Did I just confuse the matter by throwing in another duration (the intermediate-term TREND)? Yes, I did. And that’s the risk management point that we continue to beat the drums on within our process – you have to be able to be Duration Agnostic.

 

What that means is that bullish is as bullish does for US Equities provided that the TRADE line of 1167 holds. But only to a point (the TREND line of 1228). And with a deep respect for that point, we also have to wake up every morning Embracing Uncertainty – because the minute that 1167 breaks again, we’ll need to be focused on putting our crash helmets back on.

 

This Globally Interconnected Game of Risk can get even more confusing if you don’t blow out your model to absorbing the uncertainty associated with correlation risks across global markets. Whether they be countries, currencies, or commodities, they’re all there – and they affect Groupthink’s Behavior, big time.

 

We call that being Multi-Factor in our risk management approach.

 

So, with a multi-factor (countries, currencies, commodities, etc.), multi-duration (TRADE, TREND, and TAIL) Global Macro model in hand, what do I see going on out there this morning?

 

Here’s my Top 6:

  1. SP500 bullish TRADE; bearish TREND
  2. VIX bearish TRADE; bullish TREND
  3. Hang Seng in a Bearish Formation (bearish across all 3 durations, TRADE/TREND/TAIL)
  4. Copper and Oil in Bearish Formations
  5. Euro/USD cross in a Bearish Formation with TRADE and TAIL lines of resistance at $1.36 and $1.39, respectively
  6. German DAX bullish TRADE; bearish TREND

I have a lot more than 6 factors in my model – but these are the ones ringing with the most Correlation Risk right here and now. These are my front-runners for managing Global Macro risk.

 

I have a tremendous amount of confidence in both my risk management model and the 41 people on my team that support its inputs. This confidence is a culture – we are not too proud to change the model’s parameters or throw away the wrong assumptions when they are not working. As prices, volatilities, and volumes change, we do.

 

Embracing Uncertainty is the furthest thing from what Old Wall Street wants right now. The only certainty I have about that is that Groupthink’s Behavior is going to continue to have performance problems as these markets churn.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil, the German DAX, and the SP500 are now $1, $80.90-86.41, 5, and 1167-1198, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Groupthink's Behavior - Chart of the Day

 

Groupthink's Behavior - Virtual Portfolio


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