TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - October 11, 2011


Levels matter and ASIA looks more bearish in the majors (HK, Nikkei, KOSPI, etc) than Germany, France, and Italy do right now – that’s telling you something about Global Growth that is ringing in the -1.1% and -2.7% selloffs in oil/copper this morning that should be respected. Every stock market in Asia and every major commodity has failed at TRADE resistance. 


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 31 points or -2.23% downside to 1167 and 0.26% upside to 1198






THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance




  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 2530 (-1218) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 888.12 (-22%)
  • VIX:  33.02 -8.8% YTD PERFORMANCE: +86.03%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.24 from 2.54 (-11.80%)




From KM - US TREASURIES: very interesting action on the short end of the curve continues to develop w/ 2-year yields having broken out above my TRADE line of 0.21% and now testing my TREND line up at 0.30%. I expect short-term yields to back off here, but the short end of the curve should continue to pressure the Gold price (which failed again at $1678 TREND resistance)

  • TED SPREAD: 38.91
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.01%
  • 10-Year: 2.16 from 2.08     
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.85 from 1.79


MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:30 a.m.: NFIB Small Business, est. 88.8, prior 88.1
  • 10:00 a.m: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, est. 39.4, prior 39.9
  • 11:30 a.m: U.S. to sell $29b 3-mo., $27b 6-mo. bills
  • 1:00 p.m.: U.S. to sell $32b 3-yr notes
  • 2:30 p.m.: Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner participates in Financial Stability Oversight Council meeting



  • FDIC to release Volcker Rule on proprietary trading
  • Chrysler talks with UAW continue
  • NBA cancels first two weeks of season
  • Hewlett-Packard said to decide future of WebOS, Palm this week, AppleInsider
  • FDA staff issues recommendation on Cook’s medicated heart stent ahead of 10/13 meeting; watch Medtronic, Baxter
  • Citigroup said to halt soliciting some Japanese retail business as it awaits government investigation outcome
  • Bloomberg/Washington Post Republican Presidential Debate at Dartmouth College, Hanover, N.H., 8 p.m.
  • No IPOs expeted to price today


COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION                                                                    


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view




  • Soy Slump Ending as Record Demand Overwhelms Farms: Commodities
  • Oil Drops From Two-Week High in New York Before Europe Debt Vote
  • Copper Declines Most in a Week on Concern About Chinese Demand
  • Timah to Resume Refined-Tin Exports After Price Rebounds
  • Corn Falls as U.S. May Raise Supply Estimate; Wheat Advances
  • Gold Declines in London as Commodities Fall Before Slovakia Vote
  • Sugar Declines in New York as Slower Growth May Curb Demand
  • Rio Says Greece Risk Overdone as China Overcomes ‘Wall of Worry’
  • U.S. Refinery Runs at Four-Month Low in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Soy Sinks More Than Oil Deepens Bond Sell-Off: Argentina Credit
  • Economists Call for Crop-Trading Limits to Curb Volatility
  • Most Tankers Idled Since ‘80s Won’t Buoy Charter Rates: Freight
  • Alcoa’s Earnings Recovery Slows on Aluminum Price ‘Headwind’
  • COMMODITIES DAYBOOK: Gold Declines, Oil Falls From 2-Week High
  • Ship Futures Jump to Year’s High as China Surge Lifts Charters
  • Aluminum Demand to Grow as Much as 10% in 5 Years, Novelis Says




EURO – yesterday KM put up the $1.36 line in the sand and said short the Euro with “impunity” there.


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view





THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance





THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance








Howard Penney

Managing Director



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