THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - October 11, 2011

 

Levels matter and ASIA looks more bearish in the majors (HK, Nikkei, KOSPI, etc) than Germany, France, and Italy do right now – that’s telling you something about Global Growth that is ringing in the -1.1% and -2.7% selloffs in oil/copper this morning that should be respected. Every stock market in Asia and every major commodity has failed at TRADE resistance. 

 

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 31 points or -2.23% downside to 1167 and 0.26% upside to 1198

 


SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 1011

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 2530 (-1218) 
  • VOLUME: NYSE 888.12 (-22%)
  • VIX:  33.02 -8.8% YTD PERFORMANCE: +86.03%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.24 from 2.54 (-11.80%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

 

From KM - US TREASURIES: very interesting action on the short end of the curve continues to develop w/ 2-year yields having broken out above my TRADE line of 0.21% and now testing my TREND line up at 0.30%. I expect short-term yields to back off here, but the short end of the curve should continue to pressure the Gold price (which failed again at $1678 TREND resistance)

  • TED SPREAD: 38.91
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.01%
  • 10-Year: 2.16 from 2.08     
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.85 from 1.79

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:30 a.m.: NFIB Small Business, est. 88.8, prior 88.1
  • 10:00 a.m: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, est. 39.4, prior 39.9
  • 11:30 a.m: U.S. to sell $29b 3-mo., $27b 6-mo. bills
  • 1:00 p.m.: U.S. to sell $32b 3-yr notes
  • 2:30 p.m.: Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner participates in Financial Stability Oversight Council meeting

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • FDIC to release Volcker Rule on proprietary trading
  • Chrysler talks with UAW continue
  • NBA cancels first two weeks of season
  • Hewlett-Packard said to decide future of WebOS, Palm this week, AppleInsider
  • FDA staff issues recommendation on Cook’s medicated heart stent ahead of 10/13 meeting; watch Medtronic, Baxter
  • Citigroup said to halt soliciting some Japanese retail business as it awaits government investigation outcome
  • Bloomberg/Washington Post Republican Presidential Debate at Dartmouth College, Hanover, N.H., 8 p.m.
  • No IPOs expeted to price today

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION                                                                    

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

 

MOST POPULAR COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Soy Slump Ending as Record Demand Overwhelms Farms: Commodities
  • Oil Drops From Two-Week High in New York Before Europe Debt Vote
  • Copper Declines Most in a Week on Concern About Chinese Demand
  • Timah to Resume Refined-Tin Exports After Price Rebounds
  • Corn Falls as U.S. May Raise Supply Estimate; Wheat Advances
  • Gold Declines in London as Commodities Fall Before Slovakia Vote
  • Sugar Declines in New York as Slower Growth May Curb Demand
  • Rio Says Greece Risk Overdone as China Overcomes ‘Wall of Worry’
  • U.S. Refinery Runs at Four-Month Low in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Soy Sinks More Than Oil Deepens Bond Sell-Off: Argentina Credit
  • Economists Call for Crop-Trading Limits to Curb Volatility
  • Most Tankers Idled Since ‘80s Won’t Buoy Charter Rates: Freight
  • Alcoa’s Earnings Recovery Slows on Aluminum Price ‘Headwind’
  • COMMODITIES DAYBOOK: Gold Declines, Oil Falls From 2-Week High
  • Ship Futures Jump to Year’s High as China Surge Lifts Charters
  • Aluminum Demand to Grow as Much as 10% in 5 Years, Novelis Says

 

CURRENCIES                                                                             

 

EURO – yesterday KM put up the $1.36 line in the sand and said short the Euro with “impunity” there.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

 

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

 

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

 


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more