THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - October 4, 2011

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 73 points or -3.94% downside to 1099 and 2.44% upside to 1172

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 106

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1427 (633)
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1194.51 (-28%)
  • VIX:  37.81 -7.4% YTD PERFORMANCE: +113.01%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.76 from 2.00 (-12%)

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 38.36
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.00%
  • 10-Year: 1.90 from 1.89     
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.64 from 1.63

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8 a.m.: RBC Consumer Outlook Index,
  • 8:30 a.m.: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 410k
  • 9:45 a.m.: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, est. -52.0
  • 10:30 a.m.: EIA natural gas
  • 11 a.m.: Fed’s Fisher speaks in Fort Worth, Texas
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $10b 5-day cash mgmt bills
  • U.S. announces 3-yr, 10-yr, 30-yr auction sizes

 

 WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Former Apple CEO Steve Jobs passed away; Apple lower in European trading
  • Retailers report monthly sales; Retail Metrics sees 4.9% gain on delayed back-to-school shopping
  • BOE and ECB are both expected to leave their key interest rates unchanged; Jean Trichet presides over his final meeting
  • EC President Jose Barroso said the commission is proposing coordinated action to recapitalize banks
  • Microsoft said to be nowhere close to making a bid for Yahoo!
  • Geithner to tell House Financial Services Committee Europe debt crisis poses risk to global growth
  • HTC reports record profit on emerging markets demand
  • No IPOs expected to price today

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION                                                                    

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

MOST POPULAR COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • World Food Prices Fell for Third Month on Slumping Grains
  • Hermes Fund Sees Biggest Rebound in Gold, Grains: Commodities
  • Copper Advances as European Officials May Contain Debt Crisis
  • Farmland Seen Returning Up to 12% by U.S. Pensions Manager
  • Oil Rises a Second Day After U.S. Stockpile Drop, Jobs Increase
  • Corn Gains for Second Day as Informa Cuts Forecast for U.S. Crop
  • Gold Gains a Second Day as Europe Debt Woes Spur Investor Demand
  • Sugar Climbs as Lower Price May Spur Demand; Coffee Advances
  • Coffee Crop in Vietnam Region to Jump 10% as Quality Gains
  • Thailand’s Rice-Buying Plan Will Spur Economy, Yingluck Says
  • Oil’s Best See No Reversing Worst Run Since 2008: Energy Markets
  • New Hope Proves Exception to Coal Deals Returning Dust: Real M&A
  • Coal Price Signals Opportunity in Stock Plunge: Chart of the Day

 

CURRENCIES                                                                             

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

DAX – this move higher in German stocks is much more consequential than anything being squeezed in Asia or the US; the immediate-term TRADE line for the DAX that KM has been flagging = 5439; watch that line closely because it gives you plenty of information on what rumor is coming down the pike next. KM would not short Germany if that line holds.

EURO – interestingly, but not surprisingly, the Euro is up this morning on Barosso’s Bazooka comments (read them); problem there is timing (there is no timing!) and it will be very interesting to see if the Euro can get above a short-term line of 1.34 resistance if the Dutch vote down an expansion of the bazooka later on today.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

 

ASIAN MARKETS

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

 

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

Howard Penney

Managing Director