Apparently, there was a report published by a Macau firm stating that the disruption from Typhoon Nesat which just passed through Macau was so severe that YoY growth in September would only hit 30% or $19.3BN vs. our $20-22BN estimate. After completing our channel checks, we are fairly confident that Typhoon Nesat had little impact on Macau gaming volumes. While it’s true that for 18 hours there were no ferries to and from HK and Macau, many bridges were closed, and taxis were not running, there were also many people stuck at the casinos with no way of getting home. Therefore, many of the gaming floors – Wynn, GM, Sands, Venetian, and CoD – were all nicely crowded Wednesday afternoon. Macau has been used to typhoons and are built to withstand flooding. This shouldn't be a problem unless another one hits. However, Macau's Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau (SMG) said there may be no more typhoons for this year. Typhoon Nesat should not have an impact on Golden Week.
As a reminder, September 29th will mark the close of the month for Macau revenues in September (revenues on the 29th are counted and recorded on the 30th before books are closed). In order for the numbers to come in at just +30% YoY, table revenues during the last 4 days would have to have shrunk to just HK$144MM/day from a run rate of HK$689MM the week prior and a monthly run rate of HK$686MM. We think that this is highly unlikely even if hold was terrible.