Unemployment: Why Was This Chart So Hard To Proactively Predict?

I guess the answer must be that the conclusions wouldn’t support the economic incentives associated with Wall Street's storytelling. Facts are stubborn little critters in the non-fiction world aren’t they!

We were in print as far back 6 months ago with an unemployment rate forecast of 6-7% by year end – it’s November. Today's October report was another new ytd high at 6.5%. Of course Goldman's analyst savants are all over Bloomberg today having “expected” these numbers to be horrible… Where were they 6-12 months ago? Counting their money, I guess!

Is this a positive fundamental data point? Of course not... but stock market's are discounting mechanisms of future events, not historical ones. The US stock market has been hammered for a -42% down move from this time last year. Now the news that's on the tape is telling you why this has occurred.

What’s our forecast from here? That’s an easy one – that proactively managing risk will crush reactive management in the game's to come.
KM