INITIAL CLAIMS BACK UP TO 3-MONTH HIGH, SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE

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Initial Claims Rise 14k WoW

Initial claims rose 14k WoW last week (11k net of the revision to the prior week).  This brings the level to 428k, the highest level since late June.  On a 4-week rolling basis, claims are up 4k WoW to 419k. As a reminder, in looking at the spread between the S&P and 4-wk claims, the current S&P level would equate to a rolling claims level of 452k.  

INITIAL CLAIMS BACK UP TO 3-MONTH HIGH, SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE - claims rolling

INITIAL CLAIMS BACK UP TO 3-MONTH HIGH, SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE - claims raw

INITIAL CLAIMS BACK UP TO 3-MONTH HIGH, SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE - claims and sp

INITIAL CLAIMS BACK UP TO 3-MONTH HIGH, SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE - claims nsa

2-10 Spread Not Letting Up 

Acute margin pressure remains in force, looking at the 10-year yield and the 2-10 spread.  The 10-year yield is now 120 bps lower than it was at the end of 2Q. 

INITIAL CLAIMS BACK UP TO 3-MONTH HIGH, SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE - SPREADS

INITIAL CLAIMS BACK UP TO 3-MONTH HIGH, SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE - SPREADS QOQ

Subsector Performance

The chart below shows the performance of financial stocks by subsector.

INITIAL CLAIMS BACK UP TO 3-MONTH HIGH, SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE - PERF

Joshua Steiner, CFA

Allison Kaptur

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