Keith shorted PENN in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio.
Today, Keith shorted PENN in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio at $36.40. According to his model, PENN currently has TRADE resistance at $37.54 and TREND resistance at $40.03.
As we mentioned in our notes last week (REGIONALS ROLLING [OVER], (9/8/11); REGIONALS: SHOW ME THE GROWTH, MO (9/13/11)) the regional gaming market revenues for August slowed down in some markets and declined in others. We saw a similar bearish trend in July. A sluggish domestic environment characterized by weak housing and high unemployment has certainly affected the US consumer in those two months and it should continue into September.
PENN is our top short in the regionals space given its exposure to many of the underperforming markets (IL, IN, PA) and relatively more downside to its trough valuation in March 2009. We certainly don't see the quarterly upside for Q2 that the investors have grown accustomed to and estimates may actually need to come down. While PENN is a fine company with solid management, the sell side is overly bullish on the name in our opinion.