Point Counterpoint: GES, LIZ, RL, SKX, COLM, CROX

Here’s the latest intersection between Keith’s factor models, and my fundamental models. Combining the two has improved our team’s batting average. Lots of opportunity out there…

GUESS?
KEITH: GES lined up to be knocked down again. From here to 25.96 it’s a short. Any catalysts?
BRIAN: Yes. When the company comes out with earnings in another month, it will take down numbers.

LIZ CLAIBORNE
KEITH: LIZ has a lot of work to do, but if it can hold 7.32, it has a prayer.
BRIAN: A lot of work to do indeed. But we’re going to start to see more of that work payoff over the next 2 quarters. The P&L is a mess, but people are looking through capex and sg&a cuts. Cash trajectory looks good to me.

SKECHERS
KEITH: SKX failed right where it should have (13.48); it will see $11, soon, if the fundamental river card shows.
BRIAN: Let me be clear on this one… I think margins are going close to zero. But I’m not sure we’ll see Keith’s fundamental river card before year end.

RALPH LAUREN
BRIAN: My gut (and my math) gets me to a beat on the quarter, and if there is a guide down, it should not be by much. For a global power brand like RL that is coming off a period of investing in both its P&L and balance sheet while many competitors have been doing the opposite, I like its competitive positioning at 6x EBITDA.
KEITH: Stock was a buy at 38 on the prospect of a beat on the Q… not at 48.
Editor’s (Brian’s) Note: The key factor here in our differing view is duration mismatch.

COLUMBIA
KEITH: COLM holding 35.76 looks like a long.
BRIAN: I agree on the fundamentals here. Not rosy by any means, especially with Spring backlog so weak. But COLM is 3-quarters into a period of SG&A investment that I have been waiting for five years to see. The company is finally investing in its content. Don’t underestimate how that could reverse the trajectory of a flailing top line.

CROCS
KEITH: CROX has 29% of the shares held short, and is now a long provided it can hold 2.48. Up another 26% Tuesday. Someone knows something …
BRIAN: If someone knows something imminent, it’s not me. Imminently, earnings/cash flow is a black hole. CROX should have reported yesterday, but they have not even announced their reporting date. Fundamentally, I like the idea of a take-out. Enterprise value of $232mm, and regardless of the ‘fad-factor’ of its core product, I think Crocs is a brand, not a product. Someone larger will own this company within a year. My bet rests with Skechers, which can buy CROX with its cash on hand. The duration of a call on this one is the biggest question in my mind.

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more