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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - September 2, 2011

Friday was not good. After trying valiantly to close up for a second consecutive week, the SP500 closed down for the fifth week in the last six and is down -13.9% from the April 2011 high, confirming the bearish TREND in US Equities.

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 48 points or -2.47% downside to 1145 and 1.62% upside to 1193.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels 96

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily sector view

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - global performance

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -2155 (-1433)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 975.06 (-4.21%)
  • VIX:  33.92 +6.60% YTD PERFORMANCE: +91.1%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 2.02 from 1.64 +23.17%

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 31.75
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.02%
  • 10-Year: 1.97 from1.99    
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.75 from 1.79

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 10 a.m.: ISM Non-Manuf., est. 51.0, prior 52.7
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $29b 3-mo., $27b 6-mo. bills
  • 11:30 a.m.: U.S. to sell $15b 8-day cash mgmt bills
  • 1:10 p.m.: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks at UMinnesota
  • 1:30 p.m.: Donald Kohn, former vice chairman Fed, speaks at London School of Economics
  • Note ICSC/Redbook weekly sales, API inventories being released tomorrow

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Swiss central bank set minimum exchange rate of 1.20 francs per euro, and said it’s “prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities”
  • U.S. 10-yr yield hit a record low of 1.91% earlier
  • ISM’s non-manufacturing index probably fell to 51 last month, the lowest level since Jan. 2010, economists’ forecast
  • Euro-area 2Q consumption, investment, spending miss estimates after figures revised from first release; 2Q GDP up 0.2%, in line with Aug. 16 est., losing momentum from previous 0.8% growth as govts. imposed austerity measures
  • PepsiCo expected to announce 10-year extension of their sponsorship deal with NFL today: WSJ
  • Toshiba fell to lowest in more than 2 years in Tokyo after WSJ reported co. may buy Shaw Group’s stake in Westinghouse Electric
  • JNJ/Bayer: FDA releases briefing docs for Sept. 8 advisory panel on Xarelto
  • Gulf of Mexico production resuming after Tropical Storm Lee shut 61% of oil, 46% of natural gas output
  • Global regulators may ease new bank rules that require lenders to hold more liquid assets, FT says
  • Ministers from Germany, Finland and the Netherlands meet today to discuss Finnish demand for collateral in bailout for Greece
  • Italian Senate expected to debate EU45.5b ($64b) austerity plan amid strike today after bond yields surged on concern govt. may backslide on the plan
  • WTO yesterday rejected China’s appeal of ruling that backed U.S. duties on tire imports
  • Ralcorp Holdings should explain why they rejected ConAgra Foods’s most recent $5.18b takeover bid, ISS said
  • No IPOs expected to price today

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily commodity view

 

MOST POPULAR COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Gold Falls From Record in London as SNB Imposes Franc Ceiling
  • Commodities Fall to One-Week Low as Europe Debt Concerns Deepen
  • Brent Oil Snaps Three-Day Drop as SNB Pledge Weakens Dollar
  • Corn, Wheat Fall as European Debt Crisis Stokes Demand Concern
  • Gold Not in a Bubble as Central Banks Print Cash, Faber Says
  • Copper May Rise in London on Freeport Strikes, Chilean Output
  • Coffee Falls as Vietnam, Latin America Supply Rises; Cocoa Drops
  • Fertilizer Imports by India May Slump Most in a Decade on Price
  • Coffee Peaking as Latin American Cargoes Surge: Freight Markets
  • Capacity Crunch Looms at Asia Container Ports: Chart of the Day
  • Brazil’s Sugar Output May Rebound Only From 2013 on Weather
  • China, India Target Colombia Coal Deposits as Demand Rises
  • Corn, Soybeans May Rise as Adverse Weather Threatens U.S. Yields
  • Indonesia ‘Life-or-Death’ Coal Law to Cut Sales: Energy Markets
  • Corn Shipments Slump as U.S. Loses to Russia: Chart of the Day
  • Top Copper Producer Chile Sees Output Drop as China Demand Grows
  • Gasoline Tracks European Oil With WTI Collapse: Chart of the Day

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - daily currency view

EUROPEAN MARKETS

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - euro performance

ASIAN MARKETS

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - asia performance

 

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - MIDEAST PERFORMANCE

Howard Penney

Managing Director