THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

 

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - August 31, 2011

 

Despite a significant downturn in equity prices during August, the S&P 500 is now 10% “off the lows” into month-end.  The market faces a difficult macro calendar in September including another attempt from the Obama administration to jump-start the economy.  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 62 points or -3.95% downside to 1165 and 1.16% upside to 1227.

 

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - bpgm1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - sv

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: +762 (-1722)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1017.24 (+11.51%)
  • VIX:  32.89 +1.89% YTD PERFORMANCE: +85.30%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.84 from 2.26 -18.61%

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 32.05
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.01% -0.01%
  • 10-Year: 2.19 from 2.28    
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.99 from 2.08

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7 a.m.: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior (-2.4%)
  • 7:30 a.m.: Challenger Job Cuts, prior 59.4%
  • 8:15 a.m.: ADP Employment, est. 100k, prior 114k
  • 9:45 a.m.: Chicago Purchasing, est. 53.3, prior 58.8
  • 10 a.m.: Factory orders, est. 2%, prior (-0.8%)
  • 10 a.m.: NAPM Milwaukee, est. 52.7, prior 57.6
  • 10:30 a.m.: DoE inventories
  • 12:30 p.m.: Fed’s Lockhart speaks on economy in Lafayette, La.

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Tropical Storm Katia may become hurricane later today, National Hurricane Center says; path uncertain
  • Lions Gate (LGF): Carl Icahn agreed to sell his Lions Gate shares for $7 each to end battle for control over the studio. Parties agreed to end all litigation

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - dcommv

 

MOST POPULAR COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Containers Slump to 50-Year Low as Sales Slow: Freight Markets
  • Mongolia Said to Plan Three-City IPO for Tolgoi Next Year
  • Oil Heads for Monthly Decline as Slower Growth Curbs Demand
  • Coal Discount Shrinking in Asia on Japan Rebound: Energy Markets
  • Copper Set for First Monthly Drop in Three on Growth Concern
  •  Colombia Raises Gold Reserves by 2.3 Tons in July, IMF Data Show
  •  Oil at 4-Week High as Stimulus Speculation Counters Supply Gain
  •  Chan Exits Sino-Forest 22 Years After Tiananmen ‘Nightmare’
  •  Oil Rises to Highest Level in Almost Four Weeks as Fuels Climb
  •  Vietnam Coffee Said to Be Trading at Discount on Record Harvest
  •  U.S. Natural Gas Output Rises to Highest Since January 2005
  •  Gold Rises in New York on Expectations Fed Will Continue to Ease
  •  Sugar to Drop as Europe, India Boost Supplies, Kingsman Says
  •  Commodity Shipping Costs Fall as China Ore Stockpiles at Record
  •  Coffee Rallies as World Supply May Tighten; Cocoa, Sugar Decline
  •  Rubber Drops From Three-Week High on Concern Economy to Slow
  •  Wheat Drops on Speculation Demand for U.S. Exports May Shrink
  •  Copper Rises to Three-Week High on U.S. Economic-Growth Outlook.

CURRENCIES

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - dcurrv

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • Germany Jul retail sales (1.6%) y/y vs consensus (1.9%), prior revised (2.1%) from (1.0%)
  • Germany Aug unemployment change (8K) vs consensus (10K), unemployment rate +7.0% vs consensus +7.0%
  • Greece is burning down 4%

 

 THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - bpem1

 

ASIAN MARKETS

  • Most Asian markets traded higher this morning despite weak US consumer confidence; China’s performance  was uninspiring +0.03%

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - bpam1

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - me

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more

Neurofinance: The Psychology Behind When To Sell A Bull Market

"Most momentum investors stay invested too long, under-reacting and holding tight after truly bad news finally arrives to break the trend," writes MarketPsych's Richard Peterson.

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy the Dip? | $XLE

What the heck is happening in the Energy sector (XLE)? Energy stocks have trailed the S&P 500 by a whopping 15% in 2017. Before you buy the dip, here's what you need to know.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

read more

Premium insight

McCullough [Uncensored]: When People Say ‘Everyone is Bullish, That’s Bulls@#t’

“You wonder why the performance of the hedge fund indices is so horrendous,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, “they’re all doing the same thing, after the market moves. You shouldn’t be paid for that.”

read more

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Replay | Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Tune in to this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more