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THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - August 31, 2011

Despite a significant downturn in equity prices during August, the S&P 500 is now 10% “off the lows” into month-end.  The market faces a difficult macro calendar in September including another attempt from the Obama administration to jump-start the economy.  As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 62 points or -3.95% downside to 1165 and 1.16% upside to 1227.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - bpgm1

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - sv

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: +762 (-1722)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1017.24 (+11.51%)
  • VIX:  32.89 +1.89% YTD PERFORMANCE: +85.30%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.84 from 2.26 -18.61%

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: 32.05
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.01% -0.01%
  • 10-Year: 2.19 from 2.28    
  • YIELD CURVE: 1.99 from 2.08

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7 a.m.: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior (-2.4%)
  • 7:30 a.m.: Challenger Job Cuts, prior 59.4%
  • 8:15 a.m.: ADP Employment, est. 100k, prior 114k
  • 9:45 a.m.: Chicago Purchasing, est. 53.3, prior 58.8
  • 10 a.m.: Factory orders, est. 2%, prior (-0.8%)
  • 10 a.m.: NAPM Milwaukee, est. 52.7, prior 57.6
  • 10:30 a.m.: DoE inventories
  • 12:30 p.m.: Fed’s Lockhart speaks on economy in Lafayette, La.

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Tropical Storm Katia may become hurricane later today, National Hurricane Center says; path uncertain
  • Lions Gate (LGF): Carl Icahn agreed to sell his Lions Gate shares for $7 each to end battle for control over the studio. Parties agreed to end all litigation

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - dcommv

MOST POPULAR COMMODITY HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG:

  • Containers Slump to 50-Year Low as Sales Slow: Freight Markets
  • Mongolia Said to Plan Three-City IPO for Tolgoi Next Year
  • Oil Heads for Monthly Decline as Slower Growth Curbs Demand
  • Coal Discount Shrinking in Asia on Japan Rebound: Energy Markets
  • Copper Set for First Monthly Drop in Three on Growth Concern
  •  Colombia Raises Gold Reserves by 2.3 Tons in July, IMF Data Show
  •  Oil at 4-Week High as Stimulus Speculation Counters Supply Gain
  •  Chan Exits Sino-Forest 22 Years After Tiananmen ‘Nightmare’
  •  Oil Rises to Highest Level in Almost Four Weeks as Fuels Climb
  •  Vietnam Coffee Said to Be Trading at Discount on Record Harvest
  •  U.S. Natural Gas Output Rises to Highest Since January 2005
  •  Gold Rises in New York on Expectations Fed Will Continue to Ease
  •  Sugar to Drop as Europe, India Boost Supplies, Kingsman Says
  •  Commodity Shipping Costs Fall as China Ore Stockpiles at Record
  •  Coffee Rallies as World Supply May Tighten; Cocoa, Sugar Decline
  •  Rubber Drops From Three-Week High on Concern Economy to Slow
  •  Wheat Drops on Speculation Demand for U.S. Exports May Shrink
  •  Copper Rises to Three-Week High on U.S. Economic-Growth Outlook.

CURRENCIES

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - dcurrv

EUROPEAN MARKETS

  • Germany Jul retail sales (1.6%) y/y vs consensus (1.9%), prior revised (2.1%) from (1.0%)
  • Germany Aug unemployment change (8K) vs consensus (10K), unemployment rate +7.0% vs consensus +7.0%
  • Greece is burning down 4%

 THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - bpem1

ASIAN MARKETS

  • Most Asian markets traded higher this morning despite weak US consumer confidence; China’s performance  was uninspiring +0.03%

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - bpam1

MIDDLE EAST

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - me

Howard Penney

Managing Director