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DSW: The Key Issue

 

Solid number out of DSW capping off results out of the family footwear space. But looking forward, the key issue for us here is that this is a company that we think is average quality at best that is growing into more expensive real estate. And even though it is getting better property deals given the current environment, it still needs to comp at 2-3x the rate of its peers to leverage SG&A (this is the Dick’s Sporting Goods of shoes). It has been comping better than 10%+ for seven quarters now. Was DSW lucky, or was it good? Probably a little of both. But what we know is that another quarter out DSW definitely HAS TO be good. VERY good. We’re not willing to give this one the benefit of the doubt. The business model is simply too complex and inefficient, and too many things are going its way right now.

 

Here are a few additional callouts from the quarter:

  • The driver here continues to be comps coming in up +12.3% coupled with gross margin expansion. With comps up LDD in the 1H of F11, the company’s updated outlook for full-year comps up MSD implies a sharp 2H deceleration with 2-year comps coming in 400-500bps.
  • DSW was the only company in the family footwear space to post gross margin expansion (+240bps) in Q2 despite LDD product cost increases across the space. We suspect these results were driven by continued success in growing accessories and private brands.
  • Inventory growth was modest up +3% on +15% sales growth resulting in a positive sales/inventory spread for the first time in the last five quarters despite higher costs. In fact, DSW is the only company in the space in the upper right quadrant with PSS, BWS, and SCVL all currently in the bottom right.
  • The company updated its outlook for the full-year taking EPS guidance up only $0.05 to $2.70-$2.85 despite a $0.11 beat suggesting softer 2H expectations. It will be interesting to hear how the company is planning for the 2H as the leader of the family footwear pack.

 

DSW: The Key Issue - FW FamilyFW CompTable 8 11

 

DSW: The Key Issue - FW FamilyFW CompCharts 8 11

 

DSW: The Key Issue - FW FamilyFW SIGMA 8 11

 

 


THE HBM: SBUX, DPZ, WEN, BAGL, CBRL, BOBE, CAKE

Notable macro data points, news items, and price action pertaining to the restaurant space.

 

MACRO

 

Consumer

 

Business and consumer optimism in the eurozone slipped in August, reinforcing fears about the region's economy.  The economic sentiment index, issued today, fell 4.7 points to 98.3.   Germany, the largest eurozone economy, reported the largest drop. 

 

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence number for August is scheduled to be released at 10 a.m. this morning.  The survey is calling for a print of 52 versus 59.5 prior.  The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence number missed the survey, which was calling for a print of 62, by a wide margin when it came in at 54.9. 

 

The ICSC chain store sales index ended its string of four declines with a slight 0.1% gain in the latest week. Discounters led the growth in some parts of the country as consumers prepared for Hurricane Irene. Year-over-year growth held 3%, the slowest pace in nine weeks and about its year-to-date average.

 

 

Subsectors

 

WINN has been trading strongly over the past couple of weeks and – as often happens – the strong price action in the stock was a precursor for the company to report strong earnings yesterday.  4QFY11 EPS came in at $0.11 vs $0.085 expectations.

 

THE HBM: SBUX, DPZ, WEN, BAGL, CBRL, BOBE, CAKE - subsector fbr

 

 

QUICK SERVICE

 

  • SBUX said today that it will have packages of its Keurig coffee pods available at U.S. grocery stores and specialty retailers beginning in November.
  • DPZ announced that it has refranchised 30 company-owned stores in Atlanta to four local owner-operators.

 

CASUAL DINING

 

  • CBRL and BOBE were cut to “Neutral” from “Buy” at SunTrust Robinson
  • CAKE has tapped Donald Evans as its Chief Marketing Officer.  Mr. Evans most recently spent 11 years at Walt Disney Co., most recently as senior VP-animation marketing for Pixar Animation and Walt Disney Animation Studios.

 

THE HBM: SBUX, DPZ, WEN, BAGL, CBRL, BOBE, CAKE - stocks 830

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst


Grim Irony

This note was originally published at 8am on August 25, 2011. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

“That the earth would give way beneath his feet was a grim irony for Mickey Mantle.”

-Jane Leavy in “The Last Boy

 

The end of Summer 2011 is approaching. I’m packing up my family for Thunder Bay. And I’m smack in the middle of a Twittersphere debate about arrogance, confidence, and success.

 

Some people think confidence and success is fleeting because, for them, it really is. Winning is hard – but great teams find a way to make it both achievable and repeatable. I wake up every morning not only accepting the Uncertainty associated with being right in this business, but swallowing the adversity that each market day and competitor brings.

 

Tired old processes that refuse to evolve are threatened by us. We get it. I’ve seen my fair share of Grim Irony in the arena of life. Whether accountability was my being punched square in the face in a Canadian Junior hockey barn or reality was being fired 5 days before the birth of my 1st son, I get it. No one owes me anything in life and there’s plenty of earth to give way beneath me yet.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Mickey Mantle was the son of a lead miner. His Dad, Mutt Mantle, died young. Before his death, as a Yankee rookie The Mick had already blown out his knee and faced plenty of adversity both on the field and from tiring veteran teammates (DiMaggio). The lesson learned from Mutt though was simple – out of sight, our of mind - play the game that’s in front of you.

 

And so we will this morning…

 

I took down my Cash position yesterday from 70% to 64% as there were some asset classes on sale that I continue to like – Corporate Bonds (LQD) and Precious Metals (SLV).

 

The Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model positioning is currently as follows:

  1. Cash = 64%
  2. Fixed Income = 21% (Long-term Treasuries, US Treasury Flattener, Corporate Bonds – TLT, FLAT, and LQD)
  3. International Currency = 6% (Canadian Dollar – FXC)
  4. International Equities = 6% (China and S&P Dividend ETF – CAF and DWX)
  5. Commodities = 3% (Silver – SLV)
  6. US Equities = 0%

I didn’t buy Gold yesterday (I might today – immediate-term TRADE support = $1705/oz and I’d like to see that critical risk management line of support hold before I try to play hero – for our Gold levels, see the Chart of The Day by Darius Dale attached). Instead, I bought back the Silver position that I sold on August 19th at $41.37 (SLV).

 

Being able to buy something that you sold higher is a wonderful feeling. A lot of people in this business call that “market timing.” And a lot of those same people say that “you can’t time markets.” Trust them on that – most of them can’t.

 

But if you could hit a baseball 734 feet (Mantle on May 22, 1963 at Yankee Stadium) or you could revolutionize the way people consume Apples (personal computing), why wouldn’t you try? While everyone else is whining, why wouldn’t you try it confidently?

 

Confidence breeds success. Success breeds confidence.

 

I’m certainly not suggesting Hedgeye is Mantle or Steve Jobs. But I am explicitly saying that Hedgeye is the greatest investment team I have ever had the pleasure and privilege to play on. We’re young. We’re evolving. And we have just as good an opportunity as any great Wall Street firm that has come before us to change the way this game is played. That’s exciting.

 

Until yesterday I had a ZERO percent asset allocation in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model to both US and European stocks and the entire Commodities complex. On one of those two things (Commodities), that was a good thing. On another (Stocks), it wasn’t – until China closed up big overnight (up +2.9% - we’re long Chinese Stocks) and US stock market futures are indicated down, again.

 

Again is as again does.

 

Over and over and over again, the Perma-Bulls have been buying stocks and changing their thesis as to why as they go. At the end of 2007 (the SP500 is still down -24.8% since then, fyi), it was because “stocks were cheap” and corporate America was “awash with liquidity.” Today, I guess their portfolios are still awash with US Equity exposure and stocks are getting cheaper.

 

But what does all of their storytelling and finger pointing really do for this country? People don’t trust this economic system or the people who manage it. If calling opacity out on the carpet is “arrogant”, I’ll happily be transparency’s child. America trusts winning and the Grim Irony of all of this back and forth about who is “perma” this and “perma” that is that very few have been Perma Right.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Gold, Oil, and the SP500 are now $1705-1809, $81.24-89.23, and 1108-1191, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Grim Irony - Chart of the Day

 

Grim Irony - Virtual Portfolio


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.65%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.63%

THE M3: SANDS CHINA RULINGS; JUNKETS

The Macau Metro Monitor, August 30, 2011

 

 

SANDS CHINA STILL WAITING FOR COURTS TO RULE ON PARCELS 7 AND 8 Macau Business, Vegas Inc

No decision has been made by the Court of Second Instance regarding Sands China's appeal of Macau govt's rejection of its application for Sites 7 & 8.  Meanwhile, the Nevada Supreme Court has ordered Judge Gonzalez to take another look at whether Sands China is subject to being sued in Nevada.  The court ordered that proceedings in Jacobs’ lawsuit against Las Vegas Sands and Sands China be put on hold until that matter is resolved.  That process is likely to take months.

 

The Supreme Court order states, "The District Court’s order … does not state that it has reviewed the matter on a limited basis to determine whether prima facie (presumed to be true) grounds for personal jurisdiction exist; it simply denies petitioner’s (Sands China’s) motion to dismiss, with no mention of a later determination after consideration of evidence, whether at a hearing before trial or at trial. While the order refers to the District Court’s comments at oral argument on the motion, the transcript reflects only that the District Court concluded there were 'pervasive contacts' between petitioner (Sands China) and Nevada, without specifying any of those contacts."

 

JUNKETS 'ENCOURAGE MONEY LAUNDERING': WIKI CABLES Macau Daily Times

According to a leaked 2009 US diplomatic cable titled ‘The Macau SAR economy at 10: Even jackpots have consequences,’ the dependence on junkets is known as "a formula that facilitates if not encourages money laundering."  The report also says “oversights of both casinos and junket operators is limited and remains a serious weakness in Macau’s AML [Anti-Money Laundering] regime”.


FANTASTIC WEEK IN MACAU

Big week raises our August revenue projection to HK$24 billion

 

 

There was a big surge in Macau this past week with average daily revenues increasing to HK$891 million vs HK$705 million for the rest of August.  This past week generated the highest revenue since Golden Week in May – pretty astonishing.  High hold probably played a role but we are clearly not seeing any signs of a slowdown in volumes.  We are now expecting around HK$24 billion for the full month,  including slots, which would represent YoY growth of 56%.

 

There was very little movement in market share from last week.  In August, LVS, WYNN and SJM continue to track below recent trends while Galaxy and MGM are above.  MPEL at 14.7% is slightly higher than its post Galaxy Macau share.  For Q3 MPEL continues to have the most upside in EBITDA from consensus estimates (20% per our projection).  

 

FANTASTIC WEEK IN MACAU - macau28



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